中國股市因刺激希望和地緣政治變化而飆升

在經歷了上週的艱難交易後，中國股市今天上漲，受到刺激措施重新燃起的希望以及近期地緣政治事件的潛在好處的提振。在中國中央銀行最近降息的支撐下，阿里巴巴集團、嗶哩嗶哩和寶尊的股價今天上漲。銀行和猜測政府可能會實施刺激消費和投資的政策。同時，億萬富翁投資人馬克莫比烏斯認為，俄羅斯失敗的政變可能會鼓勵中國放鬆激進的地緣政治政策，這將有利於中國股市。

Surge in Chinese Stocks Bolstered by Stimulus Hopes and Geopolitical Shifts

刺激希望和地緣政治變化推動中國股市飆升

Amidst the volatility of the previous trading week, Chinese stocks have regained momentum, propelled by renewed optimism regarding impending stimulus measures and potential benefits stemming from recent geopolitical developments.

在前一周的波動中，由於人們對即將出台的刺激措施以及近期地緣政治事態發展帶來的潛在好處重新感到樂觀，中國股市重新獲得了動力。

Stock Market Ascent

股市上漲

Shares of Alibaba Group (NYSE: BABA), a tech and e-commerce giant, witnessed a nearly 2% rise on Monday. Bilibili (NASDAQ: BILI), a video-sharing platform, saw an upswing of close to 4%, while Baozun (NASDAQ: BZUN), another e-commerce entity, concluded the day approximately 1.5% higher.

科技和電子商務巨頭阿里巴巴集團（NYSE：BABA）的股價週一上漲近 2%。影片分享平台嗶哩嗶哩（NASDAQ：BILI）上漲近 4%，而另一家電子商務實體寶尊（NASDAQ：BZUN）當天收盤上漲約 1.5%。

Stimulus Anticipations

刺激預期

In recent weeks, China's central bank has initiated selective benchmark interest rate cuts, sparking widespread speculation about the likelihood of supplementary stimulus measures from the Chinese government to stimulate economic growth.

最近幾週，中國央行開始有選擇地下調基準利率，引發了人們對中國政府可能採取補充刺激措施來刺激經濟成長的廣泛猜測。

Bank of America's chief economist for Greater China, Helen Qiao, asserted in a recent analysis that China is poised to enact policies designed to bolster consumption, enhance investment, and support the country's beleaguered property sector, a significant contributor to economic expansion.

美國銀行大中華區首席經濟學家喬海倫在最近的分析中斷言，中國準備制定旨在刺激消費、增加投資和支持中國陷入困境的房地產行業的政策，房地產行業是經濟擴張的重要貢獻者。

"Further coordinated easing measures are in progress," Qiao stated, emphasizing the improved valuations of Chinese stocks and recent upward revisions of earnings by analysts.

喬表示：「進一步協調的寬鬆措施正在進行中。」他強調了中國股票估值的改善以及分析師最近上調的盈利。

Geopolitical Implications

地緣政治影響

Simultaneously, renowned investor Mark Mobius, founder of Mobius Capital Partners, suggests that the recent failed coup in Russia may prompt Chinese President Xi Jinping to moderate some of his more assertive geopolitical stances, potentially benefiting Chinese stocks.

同時，著名投資者、莫比烏斯資本合夥人創始人馬克·莫比烏斯表示，俄羅斯最近失敗的政變可能會促使中國國家主席習近平緩和一些更為自信的地緣政治立場，從而可能使中國股市受益。

"Undoubtedly, they are meticulously monitoring events in Russia, and it must be unsettling," Mobius stated in an interview with Barron's published on Monday. Mobius's inference is that if China perceives Russia's governance and economic model as ultimately detrimental to business, it may distance itself from similar practices, potentially attracting increased interest from foreign investors.

「毫無疑問，他們正在密切監視俄羅斯發生的事件，這一定令人不安，」莫比烏斯在周一發表的《巴倫周刊》採訪中表示。莫比烏斯的推論是，如果中國認為俄羅斯的治理和經濟模式最終不利於商業，它可能會遠離類似的做法，這可能會吸引外國投資者更多的興趣。

When asked about specific mainland Chinese stocks he favors, Mobius highlighted those with minimal exposure to government intervention.

當被問及他青睞的具體中國大陸股票時，莫比烏斯強調了那些受政府乾預影響最小的股票。

"For instance, we were considering a medical supplies company, but government intervention in pricing has emerged as a concern for margins," Mobius explained. "It is essential to align with favorable policies while avoiding sectors prone to government control and companies that may draw attention and invite regulatory scrutiny."

「例如，我們正在考慮一家醫療用品公司，但政府對定價的干預已成為對利潤率的擔憂，」莫比烏斯解釋道。 “必須與有利的政策保持一致，同時避開容易受到政府控制的行業和可能引起關注並引發監管審查的公司。”

Outlook and Investment Opportunities

展望與投資機會

The timing of government intervention and stimulus implementation remains uncertain, with ongoing discussions among analysts and economists. However, it would be premature to dismiss China's economic prospects, as it possesses the potential for positive surprises in the latter half of the year.

政府乾預和實施刺激措施的時機仍不確定，分析師和經濟學家仍在討論。然而，現在就否定中國的經濟前景還為時過早，因為它有可能在下半年帶來正面的驚喜。

Mobius's insights offer a compelling perspective from an experienced and successful investor. While the Chinese government's policy direction is yet to be fully defined, opportunities may emerge during this interim period.

莫比烏斯的見解為一位經驗豐富、成功的投資者提供了令人信服的視角。儘管中國政府的政策方向尚未完全明確，但在此過渡時期可能會出現機會。

Despite the susceptibility of Alibaba, Bilibili, and Baozun to government intervention as tech stocks, Alibaba remains my preferred choice. Although regulatory actions against the company are a possibility, Alibaba's impending division into six distinct units, each with potential for initial public offerings, could significantly enhance shareholder value. This strategic move also mitigates regulatory risks, as an issue affecting one division would have a lesser impact on the others.

儘管阿里巴巴、嗶哩嗶哩和寶尊作為科技股很容易受到政府乾預，但阿里巴巴仍然是我的首選。儘管有可能對該公司採取監管行動，但阿里巴巴即將劃分為六個不同的部門，每個部門都有首次公開募股的潛力，這可能會顯著提高股東價值。這項策略措施也降低了監管風險，因為影響一個部門的問題對其他部門的影響較小。

Conclusion

結論

The resurgence of Chinese stocks reflects renewed optimism driven by potential stimulus and geopolitical shifts. While the government's response is yet to be fully determined, investors should not underestimate the resilience of China's economy, which may surprise positively in the months ahead.

中國股市的復甦反映出潛在刺激措施和地緣政治變化驅動的樂觀情緒重燃。儘管政府的反應尚未完全確定，但投資者不應低估中國經濟的韌性，未來幾個月可能會出現令人驚訝的正面表現。

The insights of experienced investors like Mark Mobius provide valuable perspectives on navigating the evolving landscape of Chinese investments. Identifying companies with minimal government intervention risk and aligning with favorable policies can enhance investment returns in the long run.

馬克·莫比烏斯等經驗豐富的投資者的見解為駕馭不斷變化的中國投資格局提供了寶貴的視角。從長遠來看，識別政府乾預風險最小的公司並配合有利的政策可以提高投資回報。