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Bitmex 前執行長 Arthur Hayes 週三分享了他對以色列和伊朗之間緊張局勢升級對比特幣和更廣泛的加密貨幣影響的分析
Former Bitmex CEO Arthur Hayes sees a bitcoin bull market on the horizon, driven by soaring energy prices and rampant inflation as Middle East tensions escalate.
Bitmex 前執行長 Arthur Hayes 認為,隨著中東緊張局勢升級,能源價格飆升和通貨膨脹加劇,比特幣牛市即將到來。
Hayes shared his analysis on Wednesday of the impact of escalating tensions between Israel and Iran on bitcoin and the broader crypto market. He warned that an intensified Middle Eastern conflict, particularly if it disrupts oil infrastructure or leads to a broader war, could significantly affect global markets.
海耶斯週三分享了他對以色列和伊朗之間緊張局勢升級對比特幣和更廣泛的加密市場影響的分析。他警告說,中東衝突加劇,特別是如果它破壞了石油基礎設施或導致更廣泛的戰爭,可能會嚴重影響全球市場。
“An intensified Middle Eastern conflict will not destroy any critical physical infrastructure supporting crypto,” he opined, adding:
他認為:「中東衝突的加劇不會破壞任何支持加密貨幣的關鍵實體基礎設施。」並補充說:
The hundreds of billions or trillions of newly printed dollars will re-energise the bitcoin bull market.
新印的數千億或數兆美元將為比特幣牛市重新註入活力。
“Bitcoin is stored energy in digital form. Therefore, if energy prices rise, bitcoin will be worth more in terms of fiat currency,” he explained.
「比特幣是以數位形式儲存的能量。因此,如果能源價格上漲,比特幣相對於法定貨幣的價值將會更高,」他解釋。
Hayes outlined the risks, focusing on three key areas: physical destruction, energy price hikes, and monetary policy. He argued that while bitcoin mining might be disrupted in regions like Iran, this would have minimal long-term impact on the network.
海耶斯概述了風險,重點放在三個關鍵領域:物質破壞、能源價格上漲和貨幣政策。他認為,雖然伊朗等地區的比特幣開採可能會受到干擾,但這對網路的長期影響很小。
The real issue, according to Hayes, is how rising energy costs could affect the market. “We know that war is inflationary. We understand that the U.S. government must borrow money to sell bombs to Israel. We know that the Fed and the U.S. commercial banking system will buy this debt by printing money and growing their balance sheets. Therefore, we know that Bitcoin will rise stupendously in fiat terms as the war intensifies,” the former Bitmex executive detailed.
海耶斯認為,真正的問題是能源成本上漲如何影響市場。 「我們知道戰爭會導致通貨膨脹。我們知道美國政府必須借錢才能向以色列出售炸彈。我們知道,聯準會和美國商業銀行系統將透過印鈔票和擴大資產負債表來購買這些債務。因此,我們知道,隨著戰爭的加劇,以法定貨幣計算的比特幣將會大幅上漲。
Hayes also highlighted the risks associated with smaller cryptocurrencies, noting that not all digital assets will perform well during a bitcoin bull market. He advised investors to be cautious and to adjust their investment strategies accordingly.
海耶斯也強調了與較小型加密貨幣相關的風險,並指出並非所有數位資產都會在比特幣牛市期間表現良好。他建議投資人保持謹慎,並據此調整投資策略。
“Just because bitcoin will rise over time doesn’t mean there won’t be intense price volatility, nor does it mean every shitcoin will share in the glory,” he concluded.
「僅僅因為比特幣會隨著時間的推移而上漲,並不意味著不會出現劇烈的價格波動,也不意味著每種垃圾幣都會分享榮耀,」他總結道。
In the short term, Hayes remains optimistic about bitcoin’s growth potential, especially as the U.S. and other countries engage in inflationary monetary policies. However, he cautions investors to be prepared for volatility in the crypto market, particularly in light of the uncertain geopolitical situation in the Middle East.
短期內,海耶斯對比特幣的成長潛力仍持樂觀態度,特別是在美國和其他國家實行通膨貨幣政策的情況下。不過,他警告投資人要為加密貨幣市場的波動做好準備,特別是考慮到中東地緣政治局勢的不確定性。
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