比特幣的實力經歷了全球動盪的考驗，未來看起來光明

Scaramucci 預計，由於戰爭或恐怖主義等地緣政治事件，明年比特幣的價值可能會貶值 10-15%。儘管比特幣作為通膨對沖工具和價值儲存手段越來越受歡迎，但其廣泛採用對其穩定性至關重要，因為目前，它更多地被視為一種投機資產。

Bitcoin's Resilience Tested Amid Geopolitical Turbulence, Long-Term Prospects Intact

比特幣的彈性在地緣政治動盪中經受考驗，長期前景完好

In a comprehensive interview with CNBC, Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital, shed light on the complex dynamics of Bitcoin's role in the financial ecosystem. While acknowledging the cryptocurrency's vulnerability to geopolitical events, Scaramucci expressed optimism about its long-term growth trajectory.

SkyBridge Capital 創辦人 Anthony Scaramucci 在接受 CNBC 綜合採訪時闡明了比特幣在金融生態系統中的複雜動態。在承認加密貨幣容易受到地緣政治事件影響的同時，斯卡拉穆奇對其長期成長軌跡表示樂觀。

Geopolitical Headwinds: A Short-Term Volatility Factor

地緣政治逆風：短期波動因素

Scaramucci highlighted the susceptibility of Bitcoin to geopolitical tensions, noting that events such as war or terrorist attacks could trigger significant value fluctuations. He estimated a potential drop of 10% to 15% in Bitcoin's value over the next year due to such occurrences.

斯卡拉穆奇強調了比特幣對地緣政治緊張局勢的敏感性，並指出戰爭或恐怖攻擊等事件可能會引發重大的價值波動。他估計，由於此類事件的發生，明年比特幣的價值可能會下跌 10% 至 15%。

This assessment aligns with recent market behavior. Following reports of a missile strike in the Middle East, Bitcoin witnessed a sharp decline, falling below the $60,000 mark. Investors often seek solace in traditional safe-haven assets like gold and government bonds during times of heightened geopolitical uncertainty.

這項評估與近期的市場行為相符。在中東發生飛彈攻擊的報告之後，比特幣大幅下跌，跌破 6 萬美元大關。在地緣政治不確定性加劇的時期，投資人往往會從黃金和政府公債等傳統避險資產中尋求安慰。

Bitcoin's Maturation: Towards Stability and Adoption

比特幣的成熟：邁向穩定性與採用

Despite short-term volatility, Scaramucci believes Bitcoin's true potential as a mainstream asset class will be realized once its user base exceeds 1 billion. Currently, Bitcoin is primarily viewed as a speculative asset rather than a stable store of value. Widespread adoption, he argues, will mitigate volatility and enhance its appeal as a reliable financial instrument.

儘管存在短期波動，斯卡拉穆奇相信，一旦比特幣用戶群超過 10 億，其作為主流資產類別的真正潛力就會顯現出來。目前，比特幣主要被視為一種投機資產，而不是穩定的價值儲存手段。他認為，廣泛採用將減輕波動性並增強其作為可靠金融工具的吸引力。

Institutional Involvement: A Mixed Outlook

機構參與：前景喜憂參半

Scaramucci addressed concerns about the centralization of Bitcoin ownership, particularly with the rise of exchange-traded funds (ETFs). While acknowledging the presence of institutional players, he reassured investors that institutional holdings represent only a small fraction of the overall market, estimated at less than 10%.

斯卡拉穆奇談到了人們對比特幣所有權集中化的擔憂，特別是隨著交易所交易基金（ETF）的興起。在承認機構參與者的存在的同時，他向投資者保證，機構持股僅佔整個市場的一小部分，估計不到 10%。

He emphasized that institutional involvement can be both beneficial and challenging. On the one hand, increased institutional participation can lend credibility and stability to Bitcoin. On the other hand, it could potentially raise concerns about market manipulation and concentration of ownership.

他強調，機構參與既有利又具挑戰性。一方面，增加機構參與可以提高比特幣的可信度和穩定性。另一方面，這可能會引起人們對市場操縱和所有權集中的擔憂。

Long-Term Bullishness: Factors Driving Value

長期看漲：推動價值的因素

Scaramucci maintained a bullish stance on Bitcoin's long-term prospects, citing several factors that could propel its value upwards. These include the recent launch of a Spot ETF, which provides investors with exposure to the underlying asset without having to directly purchase Bitcoin.

斯卡拉穆奇對比特幣的長期前景保持看漲立場，並列舉了幾個可能推動其價值上漲的因素。其中包括最近推出的現貨 ETF，它為投資者提供了標的資產的曝險，而無需直接購買比特幣。

Increased institutional involvement, as well as the upcoming halving event, are also seen as potential catalysts for Bitcoin's growth. The halving event, scheduled to occur between April 19 and 20, will halve the reward for miners who validate transactions, reducing the rate at which new Bitcoin enters circulation.

機構參與的增加以及即將到來的減半事件也被視為比特幣成長的潛在催化劑。減半事件計劃於 4 月 19 日至 20 日期間發生，驗證交易的礦工的獎勵將減半，從而降低新比特幣進入流通的速度。

Revised Price Target: Reflecting a Brighter Outlook

修訂後的價格目標：反映更光明的前景

Scaramucci revised his previous price prediction for Bitcoin, which stood at $170,000 by mid-to-late 2025. He now believes that Bitcoin could soar even higher, potentially reaching $200,000 or beyond. This revised target reflects his bullish outlook on the cryptocurrency's long-term prospects.

斯卡拉穆奇修改了先前對比特幣的價格預測，預計到 2025 年中後期將達到 17 萬美元。這項修改後的目標反映了他對加密貨幣長期前景的看好前景。

Conclusion: Bitcoin's Resilience and Evolving Role

結論：比特幣的彈性和不斷變化的角色

While Bitcoin faces short-term volatility due to geopolitical uncertainties, its long-term growth trajectory remains promising. As the cryptocurrency ecosystem continues to evolve and mature, Bitcoin is expected to emerge as a resilient asset class capable of weathering geopolitical storms and delivering substantial returns for investors. Its potential as a hedge against inflation and a store of value is still in its early stages of adoption, but with widespread acceptance and continued innovation, Bitcoin may establish itself as a dominant force in the financial landscape.

儘管由於地緣政治不確定性，比特幣面臨短期波動，但長期成長軌跡仍充滿希望。隨著加密貨幣生態系統的不斷發展和成熟，比特幣有望成為一個有彈性的資產類別，能夠抵禦地緣政治風暴並為投資者帶來豐厚的回報。它作為對沖通膨和價值儲存的潛力仍處於早期採用階段，但隨著廣泛接受和持續創新，比特幣可能會成為金融領域的主導力量。