比特幣飆升至新高度，但出現修正跡象

Bitcoin's Continued Ascension: A Surge to New Heights and Signs of a Potential Correction

比特幣的持續上漲：飆升至新的高度和潛在修正的跡象

After a swift pullback in early January, the Bitcoin market has witnessed a remarkable resurgence. The launch of numerous Bitcoin spot ETFs initially triggered a downturn, but the crypto bulls quickly regained control, propelling prices sharply upward.

經過一月初的快速回檔後，比特幣市場出現了顯著的復甦。眾多比特幣現貨 ETF 的推出最初引發了低迷，但加密貨幣多頭很快就重新獲得控制權，推動價格大幅上漲。

A New All-Time High: Bitcoin Breaks Barriers

歷史新高：比特幣打破障礙

Surpassing the $50,000 threshold ignited an impressive price surge, resulting in a new all-time high of $73,794 on March 4th. This represents an astounding +91% increase from the January 23rd low in just seven weeks.

突破 50,000 美元門檻引發了令人印象深刻的價格飆升，並於 3 月 4 日創下了 73,794 美元的歷史新高。這意味著在短短七週內較 1 月 23 日的低點增長了 91%，令人震驚。

A Bear Market Ends: A Sensational Recovery

熊市結束：轟動性復甦

Since the low of $15,479 on November 22nd, 2022, Bitcoin has experienced an even more exceptional +376.7% increase within a short span of thirteen and a half months, signaling the definitive end of the bear market.

自 2022 年 11 月 22 日觸及 15,479 美元的低點以來，比特幣在短短 13 個半月內經歷了更驚人的 +376.7% 的漲幅，標誌著熊市的最終結束。

Reflecting on Underestimated Demand: Spot ETFs Redefine the Game

反思被低估的需求：現貨 ETF 重新定義遊戲

The demand from the newly launched Bitcoin spot ETFs was initially underestimated, leading to expectations of a prolonged correction period. However, these ETFs have revolutionized the market, sparking a spectacular Bitcoin rally.

新推出的比特幣現貨 ETF 的需求最初被低估，導致市場預期回檔期將會延長。然而，這些 ETF 徹底改變了市場，引發了比特幣的驚人反彈。

A Temporary Pullback: Bitcoin Consolidates Gains

暫時回檔：比特幣鞏固漲幅

After reaching the new all-time high, Bitcoin experienced a significant pullback of -17.66%, reaching an initial low point at $60,760. While the rally has been slightly shaken, overarching sell signals have yet to emerge.

在觸及歷史新高後，比特幣經歷了-17.66%的大幅回調，觸及初始低點60,760美元。儘管漲勢略有動搖，但整體賣出訊號尚未出現。

Halving on the Horizon: Potential Impact on Prices

減半即將到來：對價格的潛在影響

The upcoming "halving," anticipated for April 15th, 2024, could potentially amplify buying pressure in the coming weeks. The reduction in mining reward from 6.25 Bitcoin per block to only 3.125 Bitcoin per block is likely to have a medium-term impact on price discovery.

預計 2024 年 4 月 15 日即將到來的「減半」可能會加劇未來幾週的購買壓力。挖礦獎勵從每塊 6.25 比特幣減少到每塊 3.125 比特幣，可能會對價格發現產生中期影響。

Major Institutions Enter the Fray: Investing in Digital Assets

主要機構加入競爭：投資數位資產

Leading financial institutions are now actively investing in digital assets, with a combined $36 trillion of assets under management. This shift in sentiment suggests an increasing demand for Bitcoin, potentially leading to higher prices in the future.

領先的金融機構目前正積極投資數位資產，管理的資產總額達36兆美元。這種情緒的轉變表明對比特幣的需求不斷增加，可能導致未來價格上漲。

The "Pre-Halving Danger Zone": A Historically Volatile Period

「減半前的危險區」：歷史上的動盪時期

In the lead-up to the halving, Bitcoin has historically entered a "pre-halving danger zone," where pullbacks of 20% to 40% have occurred 14 to 28 days prior to the event. Additionally, ETFs have recently recorded a weekly outflow of approximately $94 million, potentially indicating a shift in sentiment.

在減半之前，比特幣歷來進入“減半前危險區”，在減半發生前 14 至 28 天出現 20% 至 40% 的回調。此外，ETF 最近錄得每週約 9,400 萬美元的資金流出，這可能表明市場情緒發生了轉變。

Technical Analysis: A Weekly Chart Perspective

技術分析：週線圖視角

On the weekly chart, the only decisive bearish signal would be a weekly closing price below $57,000. However, a broad resistance zone between $58,000 and $69,000 could potentially keep Bitcoin occupied for an extended period.

在周線圖上，唯一決定性的看跌訊號是周收盤價低於 57,000 美元。然而，58,000 美元至 69,000 美元之間的廣泛阻力區域可能會使比特幣長期佔據主導地位。

Daily Chart: Building Support Above $60,000

日線圖：在 60,000 美元上方建立支撐

While a head & shoulder formation on the daily chart did not materialize, Bitcoin's pullback has generated a sell-signal from the stochastic oscillator. Nevertheless, a volatile back-and-forth between $61,000 and $67,000 could potentially establish a base for a new buying signal.

雖然日線圖上的頭肩形態並未出現，但比特幣的回檔已從隨機振盪器產生了賣出訊號。儘管如此，61,000 美元至 67,000 美元之間的波動可能會為新的買入訊號奠定基礎。

Sentiment: Excessive Optimism Initiates Pullback

情緒：過度樂觀引發回調

Excessive optimism has reached extreme levels, as evidenced by the "Crypto Fear & Greed Index" reaching 88 out of 100 points on March 14th. The recent pullback has somewhat curbed this sentiment, but the market remains sensitive to price fluctuations.

過度樂觀已經達到了極端水平，3 月 14 日「加密貨幣恐懼與貪婪指數」達到 88 點（滿分 100 點）就證明了這一點。最近的回調在一定程度上抑制了這種情緒，但市場對價格波動仍然敏感。

Seasonality: A Mixed Picture for Bitcoin

季節性：比特幣的情況好壞參半

Historically, Bitcoin has traded sideways between mid-March and mid-April, with a new uptrend typically emerging in the second half of April. However, seasonality suggests that the next significant buying opportunity may not arrive until September or October.

從歷史上看，比特幣在 3 月中旬至 4 月中旬期間一直橫盤整理，新的上升趨勢通常會在 4 月下半月出現。然而，季節性表明下一個重要的買入機會可能要到九月或十月才會到來。

Bitcoin vs. Gold: A Tale of Dominance

比特幣與黃金：統治地位的故事

Bitcoin continues to outperform gold, with the Bitcoin/Gold-ratio surging by 279.4% in favor of Bitcoin since November 22nd, 2022. While a pullback may be in order, the ratio has ample support at 24, coinciding with the upward trendline since October 2023.

比特幣的表現繼續優於黃金，自2022 年11 月22 日以來，比特幣/黃金比率飆升279.4%，對比特幣有利。雖然可能會出現回調，但該比率在24 處有充足的支撐，與10 月以來的上升趨勢線一致2023 年。

Macro Update: Inflation Concerns Fuel Market Volatility

宏觀更新：通膨擔憂燃料市場波動

The S&P500 has rallied by over 1,165 points since its low on October 27th, 2023, buoyed by enthusiasm for artificial intelligence and hopes of interest rate cuts. However, rising stock prices continue to support consumer spending, perpetuating inflationary pressures.

受人工智慧熱情和降息希望的提振，標準普爾 500 指數自 2023 年 10 月 27 日低點以來已上漲逾 1,165 點。然而，不斷上漲的股價繼續支持消費者支出，使通膨壓力持續存在。

Speculation Galore: A Market in Frenzy

投機盛行：市場瘋狂

Given the substantial market gains, further interest rate cuts seem unlikely for the time being. The US Federal Reserve is instead attempting to appease markets with promises, but the extent of this strategy is unclear. Speculative fervor has gripped the markets, with technology stocks reaching lofty valuations.

鑑於市場大幅上漲，暫時不太可能進一步降息。相反，聯準會試圖透過承諾來安撫市場，但這項策略的範圍尚不清楚。投機熱情席捲了市場，科技股的估值達到了很高的水平。

A Potential Correction: Bitcoin Vulnerable to Market Sentiment

潛在的修正：比特幣容易受到市場情緒的影響

With the stock market's favorable seasonal window nearing its end, a seasonal correction or breather is possible. Bitcoin's correlation to the Nasdaq has increased in recent months, making it susceptible to potential market downturns.

隨著股市有利的季節性窗口接近尾聲，季節性調整或喘息是可能的。近幾個月來，比特幣與納斯達克的相關性增加，使其容易受到潛在市場低迷的影響。

Conclusion: A Potential Correction Amidst Long-Term Promise

結論：長期前景中的潛在修正

After its extreme rally, Bitcoin has reached a short-term top at $73,793. Signs point to a potential medium-term peak, with a significant correction or consolidation likely. While a pullback to the 38.2% retracement level at around $51,500 is plausible, a decline to the 61.8% retracement at approximately $38,000 is not out of the realm of possibility.

經過極端反彈後，比特幣已達到短期高點 73,793 美元。跡象表明潛在的中期峰值，可能會出現重大調整或盤整。雖然回調至 51,500 美元左右的 38.2% 回檔位是有可能的，但跌至 38,000 美元左右的 61.8% 回檔位也並非不可能。

However, the halving and continued ETF demand could potentially support prices, making significant new all-time highs above $75,000 to $77,000 possible in the future. If a correction unfolds as a "cup & handle pattern," a potential price target of $51,500 for the final low could emerge by September or October 2024, presenting an exceptional buying opportunity before Bitcoin embarks on a potential surge towards $100,000 and beyond.

然而，減半和持續的 ETF 需求可能會支撐價格，使未來有可能創下 75,000 美元至 77,000 美元以上的歷史新高。如果修正以「杯柄模式」展開，那麼到2024 年9 月或10 月可能會出現最終低點51,500 美元的潛在價格目標，這在比特幣開始飆升至100,000 美元及以上之前提供了絕佳的買入機會。