炒作減半後比特幣面臨拋售風險

比特幣在周五減半事件後面臨潛在的「拋售新聞」情景，因為市場已經消化了這項軟體修改的影響。分析師警告說，減半前的反彈表明想要為此事件購買比特幣的投資者已經這樣做了，這表明減半後可能會出現拋售。

Bitcoin Faces Sell-Off Risk After Halving Event

減半事件後比特幣面臨拋售風險

As the highly anticipated Bitcoin halving draws near, experts warn of a potential "sell-the-news" market move, where the price of the cryptocurrency plummets after a significant event has passed.

隨著備受期待的比特幣減半臨近，專家警告稱，可能會出現「拋售新聞」市場走勢，即重大事件過去後，加密貨幣的價格會暴跌。

This concern stems from Bitcoin's historical tendency to rally ahead of major industry milestones, only to experience a sell-off shortly after. Prominent financial institutions such as JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank have expressed their belief that the halving event is largely factored into the current price.

這種擔憂源自於比特幣的歷史趨勢，在重大產業里程碑之前反彈，但不久之後就會遭遇拋售。摩根大通和德意志銀行等知名金融機構表示，他們相信減半事件在很大程度上影響了目前的價格。

Joel Kruger, market strategist at LMAX Group, cautions that those who wanted to buy Bitcoin in anticipation of the halving have likely already done so. This suggests that after the halving occurs, we could witness a "sell-the-news" reaction.

LMAX Group 市場策略師 Joel Kruger 警告說，那些因預期比特幣減半而想要購買比特幣的人可能已經這樣做了。這表明減半發生後，我們可能會看到「拋售新聞」的反應。

The halving involves reducing the reward that Bitcoin miners receive for adding new blocks to the blockchain by 50%. It takes place approximately every four years and is intended to control the supply of new Bitcoin and maintain its scarcity.

減半涉及將比特幣礦工因向區塊鏈添加新區塊而獲得的獎勵減少 50%。它大約每四年舉行一次，旨在控制新比特幣的供應並保持其稀缺性。

Previous halving events have elicited mixed market reactions. In 2012, Bitcoin's price surged 70% in the months leading up to the halving but then fell 50% in the subsequent weeks. In 2016, the price jumped 60% before the halving but declined 40% afterward.

先前的減半事件引起了不同的市場反應。 2012 年，比特幣價格在減半前的幾個月飆升了 70%，但隨後幾週又下跌了 50%。 2016年，減半前價格上漲了60%，但減半後價格下跌了40%。

Analysts speculate that the halving's impact on Bitcoin's price will hinge on several factors, including macroeconomic conditions, investor sentiment, and regulatory developments. If the halving fails to meet or exceed market expectations, it could trigger a sell-off.

分析師推測，減半對比特幣價格的影響將取決於多個因素，包括宏觀經濟狀況、投資者情緒和監管動態。如果減半未能達到或超出市場預期，可能會引發拋售。

Some experts believe that Bitcoin's price will stabilize after the initial post-halving volatility. They argue that the halving's long-term impact is in reducing supply and strengthening the cryptocurrency's fundamentals.

一些專家認為，比特幣價格在經歷減半後的最初波動後將趨於穩定。他們認為，減半的長期影響在於減少供應並加強加密貨幣的基本面。

However, others warn that a "sell-the-news" move could have a ripple effect on the broader cryptocurrency market, leading to declines in the prices of other digital assets. Investors are advised to approach the halving event with caution and to manage their expectations accordingly.

然而，其他人警告稱，「拋售新聞」措施可能會對更廣泛的加密貨幣市場產生連鎖反應，導致其他數位資產的價格下跌。建議投資人謹慎對待減半事件，並相應地管理自己的預期。