比特幣在2025年可能正在揮舞著波動性

但是一項新的分析表明，世界上最有價值的加密貨幣正在顯示長期穩定的跡象。

Bitcoin may be rolling through 2025 with a wave of volatility, but a new analysis suggests that the world’s most valuable cryptocurrency is showing signs of long-term stabilization.

比特幣可能會在2025年以一波波動性滾動，但新的分析表明，世界上最有價值的加密貨幣正在顯示長期穩定的跡象。

According to renowned crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr., applying the Pareto Principle—commonly known as the 80/20 rule—offers a compelling lens through which to understand Bitcoin’s current market behavior. The principle, which holds that 80% of outcomes often result from 20% of causes, is being used here to evaluate market sentiment and profitability distribution among BTC holders.

根據著名的加密分析師阿克塞爾·阿德勒（Axel Adler Jr.）的說法，採用帕累托原則（通常稱為80/20規則），這是一個引人注目的鏡頭，可以通過它來了解比特幣當前的市場行為。該原則認為，在這裡，有80％的結果通常是由20％的原因造成的，在這裡用於評估BTC持有人之間的市場情緒和盈利能力分佈。

Adler’s latest research highlights that roughly 80% of all Bitcoin holders are currently in profit, while the remaining 20% are in loss territory. This distribution may seem ordinary, but it provides key insight into the overall health of the market. In previous cycles, when 95% or more of holders were in profit, markets tended to become overheated—fuelling panic-driven sell-offs and rapid price corrections. That’s not what we’re seeing now.

阿德勒（Adler）的最新研究強調，所有比特幣持有人中約有80％目前正在獲利，而其餘的20％則處於損失領域。這種分佈似乎很普通，但它為市場整體健康提供了關鍵的見解。在以前的周期中，當95％或更多的持有人獲利時，市場往往變得過熱 - 恐慌驅動的拋售和迅速的價格更正。那不是我們現在看到的。

Instead, Adler points out that the current balance between profit and loss holders suggests a more neutral, less emotionally charged market. In this state, investors are less likely to dump their holdings in a frenzy, which historically creates more sustainable price trends. This lack of extreme profit-taking could mean Bitcoin is entering a healthier growth phase, despite some investors’ disappointment in the asset’s recent lack of explosive momentum.

取而代之的是，阿德勒指出，利潤和損失持有人之間的當前平衡表明，一個更中性，情緒低落的市場。在這個州，投資者不太可能將其持股倒入瘋狂，這從歷史上創造了更可持續的價格趨勢。儘管有一些投資者對該資產最近缺乏爆炸性勢頭感到失望，但缺乏極端的盈利可能意味著比特幣正在進入更健康的增長階段。

To put things into context, Adler’s view contrasts sharply with the euphoric highs seen in previous bull markets. When the majority of investors are deep in the green, the temptation to lock in gains tends to overwhelm any desire to hold long-term. What follows is often a violent correction. The fact that only 80% of current holders are in profit suggests that while optimism remains, it’s tempered by a level of caution—something the crypto market hasn’t seen in a while.

為了使事情陷入情境，阿德勒的觀點與以前的牛市中看到的欣喜高。當大多數投資者深入綠色時，鎖定收益的誘惑往往會淹沒任何長期渴望的願望。接下來的事情通常是一種暴力糾正。目前只有80％的持有人的利潤表明，儘管樂觀仍然存在，但它卻受到一定程度的謹慎，這一事實是加密市場已經有一段時間沒有看到的。

Despite this underlying stability, Bitcoin’s recent price action has been anything but calm. As of mid-April 2025, BTC is trading around $84,559.49, down 0.73% on the day. The broader picture, however, is more telling. January kicked off with strong momentum, with Bitcoin surging over 9.5% and briefly breaking above the $109,000 threshold. Yet February saw a stark reversal, as prices corrected by 17.5%, highlighting just how sensitive the market remains to macroeconomic shocks.

儘管這種潛在的穩定性，但比特幣最近的價格動作卻是平靜的。截至2025年4月中旬，BTC的交易價格約為84,559.49美元，當天下跌0.73％。但是，更廣泛的情況更為說明。一月份以強勁的動力開始，比特幣飆升了9.5％，短暫地超過了109,000美元的門檻。然而，二月份的價格呈鮮明的逆轉，因為價格糾正了17.5％，強調了市場對宏觀經濟衝擊的敏感程度。

March brought little relief, as Bitcoin became trapped in a sideways trading range between $76,580 and $94,922. Investors were left guessing, with no clear breakout in sight. The early days of April continued this trend of choppy movement. BTC started the month at $82,541, then spiked to $88,502 before rapidly falling back to where it began—all within a single day.

3月幾乎沒有放鬆，因為比特幣被困在側向交易範圍內，範圍在76,580美元至94,922美元之間。投資者猜測，看不到明確的突破。四月的初期繼續這種波動的運動趨勢。 BTC以82,541美元的價格開始，然後飆升至88,502美元。

The catalyst for this renewed volatility appears to stem from heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly arising from U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff strategies, which have broader implications for global financial markets. These policies have rattled investor confidence and dragged risk assets—including cryptocurrencies—into the storm.

這種更新的波動性的催化劑似乎源於地緣政治緊張局勢加劇，尤其是由美國總統唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的積極關稅策略引起的，這對全球金融市場具有更大的影響。這些政策使投資者充滿信心，並拖延了風險資產（包括加密貨幣）。

However, there’s also some resilience. Between April 5 and April 8, Bitcoin dropped nearly 9%, but quickly regained ground, climbing over 9.5% in the following days. Despite this recovery, BTC is up only 1.43% for the month so far, indicating that the market is struggling to define a clear direction. Yet, this measured price behavior could be part of a broader trend of normalization—a much-needed break from the extremes of recent years.

但是，還有一些彈性。在4月5日至4月8日之間，比特幣下降了近9％，但迅速恢復了地面，在接下來的幾天中攀升了9.5％。儘管恢復了這種恢復，但迄今為止，BTC的本月僅增長了1.43％，這表明市場正在努力定義明確的方向。然而，這種測量的價格行為可能是正常化趨勢的一部分，這是近年來極端急需的突破。

While the lack of explosive growth might disappoint some traders, Adler argues that this kind of environment can actually be beneficial for the long-term strength of Bitcoin. He emphasizes that when markets are not dominated by euphoria or panic, more rational decision-making tends to prevail. This could lead to a more mature and investor-friendly Bitcoin market—one that grows at a sustainable pace rather than burning out in a wave of hype.

儘管缺乏爆炸性增長可能會使某些交易者失望，但阿德勒認為，這種環境實際上對比特幣的長期實力可能是有益的。他強調，當市場不受欣快感或恐慌的主導時，更合理的決策往往會佔上風。這可能會導致更成熟，更適合投資者友好的比特幣市場，該市場以可持續的速度增長，而不是在炒作浪潮中燃燒。

Of course, it’s worth noting that the crypto market remains inherently unpredictable. Sudden shifts in regulation, technology, or institutional sentiment can always disrupt even the most stable of trends. But for now, the application of the 80/20 rule provides a grounded way to understand where Bitcoin stands. We’re not in an overheated market. We’re not in a deep slump either. We’re somewhere in between—a potentially sweet spot for strategic investors.

當然，值得注意的是，加密貨幣市場本質上仍然是不可預測的。法規，技術或機構情緒的突然轉變始終會破壞最穩定的趨勢。但是就目前而言，80/20規則的應用提供了一種理解比特幣立場的基礎。我們沒有進入過熱的市場。我們也不處於深度低迷狀態。我們介於兩者之間，這是戰略投資者的潛在最佳地點。

If history is any guide, markets that stabilize after extreme runs often lay the groundwork for the next big move. Whether that means another rally or a deeper correction will depend on countless factors. But as Adler’s analysis suggests, Bitcoin today is

如果歷史是任何指南，那麼在極端運行後穩定的市場通常會為下一個大舉動奠定基礎。這意味著另一個集會還是更深入的校正將取決於無數因素。但是正如阿德勒（Adler）的分析所暗示的那樣，今天的比特幣是