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今年,隨著華爾街採用的完美風暴、聯準會降息以及前總統川普的意外支持推動價格上漲,比特幣價格飆升,預計還會有進一步的「煙火」。
Bitcoin has seen a wild ride in 2024, hitting a previous all-time high of over $70,000 per bitcoin before dropping back to around $60,000 as the U.S. and China begin what could become a crypto cold war.
比特幣在 2024 年經歷了一場瘋狂的上漲,曾創下每比特幣 7 萬美元以上的歷史新高,但隨著美國和中國開始可能演變成加密貨幣冷戰,比特幣價格又回落至 6 萬美元左右。
Now, as Tesla billionaire Elon Musk warns the U.S. could collapse under the weight of its $35 trillion debt pile, JPMorgan analysts have predicted a so-called "debasement trade" could fuel a bitcoin price boom going into the U.S. election—with Trump expected to add $7.5 trillion to U.S. debt.
現在,正如特斯拉億萬富翁伊隆馬斯克警告美國可能會在35 兆美元債務的重壓下崩潰一樣,摩根大通分析師預測,所謂的「貶值交易」可能會在美國大選前推動比特幣價格上漲,而川普預計將美國債務增加 7.5 兆美元。
"Rising geopolitical tensions and the coming U.S. election are likely to reinforce what some investors call the 'debasement trade' thus favoring both gold and bitcoin," JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in a note to clients seen by Marketwatch.
以Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou 為首的摩根大通分析師在Marketwatch 看到的一份給客戶的報告中寫道:「不斷加劇的地緣政治緊張局勢和即將到來的美國大選可能會加劇一些投資者所說的『貶值交易',從而有利於黃金和比特幣。
Gold and bitcoin could be boosted by "persistently high government deficits across major economies, to waning confidence in fiat currencies in certain emerging markets, and to a broader diversification away from the dollar," according to the analysts who said a Trump election win would likely reinforce the debasement trade.
分析師表示,「主要經濟體持續高企的政府赤字、某些新興市場對法定貨幣的信心減弱,以及美元的更廣泛多元化」可能會提振黃金和比特幣,他們表示川普當選可能會獲勝加強貶值貿易。
Trump is forecast to increase the federal debt by around twice the increase expected if Democratic Party candidate Kamala Harris is elected, according to a report from the non-partisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
根據無黨派負責任聯邦預算委員會的報告,如果民主黨候選人卡馬拉·哈里斯當選,預計川普將增加聯邦債務的兩倍左右。
Trump would raise federal debt by $7.5 trillion by 2035 if he retakes the White House next month while vice president Harris is estimated to increase the debt by $3.5 trillion over the same period.
如果川普下個月重新入主白宮,到 2035 年,他將增加聯邦債務 7.5 兆美元,而副總統哈里斯預計同期債務將增加 3.5 兆美元。
U.S. national debt has skyrocketed in recent years, crossing the $34 trillion mark at the beginning of 2024, largely due to Covid and lockdown stimulus measures.
近年來,美國國債飆升,在 2024 年初突破 34 兆美元大關,主要是由於新冠疫情和封鎖刺激措施。
JPMorgan analysts later wrote the bitcoin price has "yet to see the ‘pop’ ... expected from lower rates since the Fed's September 18 cut," predicting in a note seen by The Block that the market may be waiting for more sustained stability before making a major move.
摩根大通分析師隨後寫道,比特幣價格“尚未出現'暴漲'…預計自美聯儲9 月18 日降息以來利率將下降”,並在The Block 看到的一份報告中預測,市場可能正在等待更持續的穩定,然後再恢復穩定。
Despite Tesla billionaire Elon Musk's concerns about the out-of-control U.S. debt pile, causing him to warn last week the U.S. could collapse into "bankruptcy," Musk has doubled down on his endorsement of Trump during a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, the site of the first assassination attempt on Trump in July.
儘管特斯拉億萬富翁埃隆馬斯克對失控的美國債務堆積感到擔憂,導致他上週警告美國可能陷入“破產”,但馬斯克在賓夕法尼亞州巴特勒的一次集會上加倍支持川普。
Trump now leads Harris by almost three percentage points in the crypto-powered Polymarket's election contract, with 52% to 46%.
目前,在由加密貨幣支持的 Polymarket 選舉合約中,川普以 52% 比 46% 領先哈里斯近三個百分點。
Meanwhile, billionaire investor Mark Cuban has teased a plan floated by Trump to pay off U.S. national debt with bitcoin or crypto—and the Doge Department of Government Efficiency backed by Musk.
與此同時,億萬富翁投資者馬克庫班(Mark Cuban)嘲笑了川普提出的一項計劃,即用比特幣或加密貨幣以及馬斯克支持的總督政府效率部來償還美國國債。
"We don't know what Elon would actually do," Cuban said during an appearance on the All-In Podcast alongside fellow investors David Friedberg, Chamath Palihapitiya, Jason Calacanis and David Sacks, responding to a question about how the U.S. could begin to tackle its huge debt pile.
在回答有關美國如何開始解決其巨額債務問題。
"Maybe [he'll] put doge in the Treasury, who knows, and that's how we make it all up," Cuban joked, referring to Elon Musk's on-again-off-again relationship with the meme-based bitcoin rival dogecoin.
庫班開玩笑說:「也許(他)會把狗狗放入財政部,誰知道呢,這就是我們的做法。」他指的是伊隆馬斯克與基於迷因的比特幣競爭對手狗狗幣時斷時續的關係。
Earlier this year, Trump floated the possibility of using bitcoin to pay off the U.S.'s $35 trillion debt pile.
今年早些時候,川普提出了使用比特幣償還美國 35 兆美元債務的可能性。
" Crypto is a very interesting thing," Trump told Fox Business in August. "Maybe we'll pay off our $35 trillion, hand them a little crypto check, right? We'll hand them a little bitcoin and wipe out our $35 trillion."
「加密貨幣是一件非常有趣的事情,」川普八月告訴福克斯商業頻道。 “也許我們會還清我們的 35 萬億美元,給他們一點加密貨幣支票,對嗎?我們會給他們一點比特幣,然後抹掉我們的 35 萬億美元。”
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