隨著礦工利潤下降，比特幣價格有望上漲，顯示看漲趨勢

根據最近的分析，稱為普埃爾倍數的鏈上指標表明，比特幣可能處於看漲價格走勢的位置。衡量礦工每日收入與 365 天移動平均線之比的普埃爾倍數最近大幅下跌，顯示礦工的收入低於歷史平均水平。從歷史上看，這種下跌與比特幣價格上漲時期同時發生。

Bitcoin Price Movement Hinges on Metrics, Indicating Potential Bullish Trend

比特幣價格走勢取決於指標，顯示潛在的看漲趨勢

Recent on-chain analysis has identified a significant plunge in the Bitcoin Puell Multiple, an indicator that gauges the profitability of Bitcoin miners. This development suggests that the asset may be entering a period of favorable price action.

最近的鏈上分析發現，比特幣普埃爾倍數（衡量比特幣礦工獲利能力的指標）大幅暴跌。這一發展表明該資產可能正在進入一個有利的價格走勢時期。

Understanding the Bitcoin Puell Multiple

了解比特幣 Puell 倍數

The Bitcoin Puell Multiple measures the ratio of daily Bitcoin miner revenue to the 365-day moving average of miner revenue. Miner revenue refers to the amount earned by validating transactions and solving blocks on the Bitcoin network, which is typically fixed in BTC terms.

比特幣普埃爾倍數衡量比特幣礦工每日收入與礦工收入 365 天移動平均值的比率。礦工收入是指透過驗證比特幣網路上的交易和解決區塊而獲得的金額，通常以 BTC 計算。

Since miner rewards remain constant in BTC value, the Puell Multiple's fluctuations primarily reflect changes in the USD conversion rate of Bitcoin. When the price of Bitcoin is high, miners tend to sell more of their holdings, increasing selling pressure. Conversely, when Bitcoin's price is low, miners may choose to hold onto their mined BTC, reducing selling pressure.

由於礦工獎勵在 BTC 價值中保持不變，因此 Puell Multiple 的波動主要反映了比特幣美元兌換率的變化。當比特幣價格較高時，礦工往往會拋售更多比特幣，增加拋售壓力。相反，當比特幣價格較低時，礦工可能會選擇持有其開採的比特幣，從而減少拋售壓力。

Recent Plunge in the Puell Multiple

最近普爾倍數暴跌

In recent days, the Bitcoin Puell Multiple has experienced a sharp decline, signaling that miners are currently earning less than the yearly average. This observation is particularly notable given that Bitcoin's price has not witnessed a similar decline.

最近幾天，比特幣普埃爾倍數大幅下跌，顯示礦工目前的收入低於年平均。鑑於比特幣的價格尚未出現類似的下跌，這項觀察尤其值得注意。

Implications for Bitcoin's Price

對比特幣價格的影響

Historically, when the Bitcoin Puell Multiple has fallen to levels similar to those observed recently, the price of Bitcoin has often experienced a temporary pause before resuming its upward trajectory. This suggests that the current situation may be bullish for Bitcoin, indicating a potential for price appreciation.

從歷史上看，當比特幣普埃爾倍數跌至與最近觀察到的水平類似時，比特幣的價格通常會經歷暫時的停頓，然後再恢復上行軌跡。這顯示目前的情況可能有利於比特幣，顯示價格有升值的潛力。

Influence of Halving Events

減半事件的影響

It is worth noting that the Bitcoin mining reward undergoes periodic adjustments known as halvings, which occur approximately every four years. During halvings, the mining reward is permanently reduced by half. The most recent halving occurred earlier this month, likely contributing to the recent decline in the Puell Multiple.

值得注意的是，比特幣挖礦獎勵會定期調整，稱為減半，大約每四年發生一次。減半期間，挖礦獎勵永久減少一半。最近一次減半發生在本月早些時候，這可能導致了最近普埃爾倍數的下降。

Correlation with Previous Halving Cycles

與之前減半週期的相關性

In previous halving cycles, the Puell Multiple has exhibited similar behavior. In 2012, 2016, and 2019, when the ratio reached comparable levels, Bitcoin's price typically paused before resuming its bull run. This historical pattern suggests the possibility of a similar outcome in the present cycle.

在先前的減半週期中，普埃爾倍數也表現出了類似的行為。在 2012 年、2016 年和 2019 年，當該比率達到可比水平時，比特幣的價格通常會暫停，然後再恢復牛市。這一歷史模式表明，當前週期中可能出現類似結果。

Current State of Bitcoin's Price

比特幣價格的現狀

Despite the potential bullish signals indicated by the Puell Multiple, Bitcoin's price has recently experienced a setback. After recovering above $64,000 yesterday, its price has since retreated to approximately $61,300.

儘管普埃爾倍數表明了潛在的​​看漲訊號，但比特幣的價格最近經歷了挫折。昨天恢復至 64,000 美元上方後，其價格已回落至約 61,300 美元。

Conclusion

結論

The recent plunge in the Bitcoin Puell Multiple has emerged as a potentially significant indicator for the asset's future price action. Historically, such a plunge has been associated with bullish outcomes, although it is important to note that market conditions can always change. As with any investment, it is crucial to conduct thorough research and consult professional advice before making any decisions.

最近比特幣普埃爾倍數的暴跌已成為該資產未來價格走勢的潛在重要指標。從歷史上看，這種暴跌一直與看漲結果有關，但值得注意的是，市場狀況總是會改變。與任何投資一樣，在做出任何決定之前進行徹底的研究並諮詢專業建議至關重要。