比特幣的價格變動最近強調了短期持有人（STH）成本基礎的重要性

比特幣的價格變動最近強調了短期持有人（STH）成本基礎作為關鍵勢頭指標的重要性。它已成為該市場情感的重要門檻。

The recent price movement of Bitcoin has highlighted the importance of the short-term holder (STH) cost basis as a key momentum indicator. It has emerged as a vital threshold for the sentiment of this market.

比特幣最近的價格轉移強調了短期持有人（STH）成本基礎作為關鍵勢頭指標的重要性。它已成為該市場情感的重要門檻。

And it’s where we are now, as Bitcoin moves in the contracting range of the $72,000 to $92,000 levels, testing the STH cost basis on its way downward, and then finding support on it as it moves upwards toward the $92,000 level again.

這就是我們現在所處的位置，因為比特幣在$ 72,000到$ 92,000的簽約範圍內移動，測試了STH成本基礎的下降，然後隨著它再次向上移動到92,000美元的水平，因此對其進行了支持。

If it can make it through the $92,000 level (with the price above it being a confirmation), then the next key level to watch will be the all-time high of just under $65,000. If it can stay above the STH cost basis and the next level is the all-time high.

如果它可以通過$ 92,000的水平（以上的價格為確認），那麼要觀看的下一個關鍵水平將是歷史最高少於65,000美元的高點。如果它可以保持在STH成本基礎之上，而新的水平是歷史最高的。

Price Action and the Critical $92k Threshold

價格動作和關鍵的$ 92K門檻

The current relevance of the holder cost basis in the short term has been underlined once again by recent price fluctuations in Bitcoin. Base-ingoi-ing at about $92,000, it is now the most significant and closely watched psychological and technical barrier that exists in today’s market.

持有人成本基礎在短期內的當前相關性再次通過比特幣的價格波動再次強調。基本山公雞的價格約為92,000美元，現在是當今市場中存在的最重要，最受關注的心理和技術障礙。

Over the last few days, Bitcoin has been on quite the rollercoaster, bouncing off some important levels and trying to power through the $92k wall. Price action above $92k for a sustained period, we think, would be a very bullish sign, with investors and traders anticipating that such a move would set in place the next leg of Bitcoin’s push to higher prices.

在過去的幾天中，比特幣一直在過山車上，彈跳了一些重要的水平，並試圖通過$ 92K的牆壁供電。我們認為，在持續期間的價格行動超過$ 92K，這將是一個非常看漲的跡象，投資者和交易員預計，這樣的舉動將建立下一條比特幣的下一條速度。

On the flip side, if Bitcoin can’t hold above $92k for any length of time, we think the next stop for it may be substantially lower prices.

另一方面，如果比特幣在任何時間內都無法持有超過$ 92K的價格，我們認為下一站的價格可能會大大降低。

Supply Gaps and Risk of Downside Movement

提供差距和下行運動的風險

Besides the STH cost basis, the current structure of supply will also influence Bitcoin’s price. Recent analysis shows that there are supply gaps extending from the $90K to $69K range, with the most notable supply buildup occurring between $80K and $90K.

除了STH的成本基礎外，當前的供應結構還將影響比特幣的價格。最近的分析表明，供應差距從$ 90K延長至69K範圍，最著名的供應量在$ 80K到$ 90K之間。

However, despite the accumulation in these price ranges, there remains a relative lack of supply in the $70K region, which could have significant implications if Bitcoin’s price begins to drop.

但是，儘管這些價格範圍內積累，但在7萬美元的地區仍然存在相對缺乏供應，如果比特幣的價格開始下跌，這可能會產生重大影響。

The scant supply around $70,000 means that if Bitcoin breaches key support levels, like $80,000, and doesn’t quickly recover, we could see a faster, more accelerated price drop. The next significant support level is in the low $60,000s. Some technical analysts see a thin supply zone between $66,000 and $68,000, which means Bitcoin could very well plummet through that to hit the next level of supply.

供應量很少70,000美元，這意味著，如果比特幣違反了關鍵支持水平，例如80,000美元，並且不會迅速恢復，我們會看到更快，更加加速的價格下跌。下一個重要的支持水平是低價60,000美元。一些技術分析師看到的供應區較薄，在66,000美元至68,000美元之間，這意味著比特幣很可能會陷入下一個供應水平的情況下。

Given the present market structure, holding support at around $80k is critical for the bull case to remain intact. If Bitcoin cannot hold this level, the downside risk becomes acute and leaves traders and investors with no choice but to closely monitor the price action over the next few days.

鑑於目前的市場結構，持有$ 80K的支持對於牛案件保持完整至關重要。如果比特幣無法保持這一水平，下行風險就會變得急劇，而交易者和投資者別無選擇，只能在接下來的幾天內密切監視價格行動。

Long-Term Accumulation and Key Support/Resistance Levels

長期積累和關鍵支持/阻力水平

Immediate price movement is very important, but the Bitcoin long-term view is being influenced almost as much by the potent patterns of accumulation taking shape across various price levels. Over the longer-term, the short-term price action is less important than the Supply/Demand picture for Bitcoin. Thus, we present a six-month supply analysis, which indicates where the price might be headed in the near-term, as well as where it is likely to head in the long-term.

立即的價格轉移非常重要，但是比特幣長期觀點幾乎受到各種價格水平上的積累模式的影響。從長遠來看，短期價格行動不如比特幣的供需圖片重要。因此，我們提出了六個月的供應分析，該分析表明價格可能會在近期何處以及長期以來可能會領導的位置。

Two main areas of pivotal long-term support and resistance have emerged across our six-month analysis:

在我們的六個月分析中，關鍵的長期支持和抵抗的兩個主要領域已經出現：

1. Accumulation at the price level of $30,000.

1。累積的價格水平30,000美元。

2. Accumulation at the price level of $60,000.

2。累積的價格水平60,000美元。

The first major accumulation level is pegged at around the $98,000 mark, where about 268,000 BTC has been accrued. This is a significant level as it is just 24% above the current spot price, showing that a lot of holders are banking on Bitcoin moving upwards from here. To me, this looks like a long-term resistance level—a place where, if Bitcoin returns to it, some folks are likely to emerge from hibernation and sell.

第一個主要的積累水平的固定在98,000美元左右，大約有268,000 BTC被計入。這是一個顯著的水平，因為它比當前的現貨價格僅24％，這表明許多持有人都依靠比特幣從這裡向上移動。對我來說，這看起來像是一個長期的阻力水平，如果比特幣返回，則有些人可能會從冬眠和銷售中出現。

Alternatively, a second accumulation cluster has formed at the $62,100 juncture. At that level, investors have acquired 228,000 BTC. This now-massive cluster let’s just call it a ‘hedge’ for argument’s sake since that’s what it really is.

另外，第二個積累集群的形成為62,100美元。在這個級別上，投資者已收購了228,000 BTC。為了爭論的緣故，這個現在的雜質集群讓我們稱其為“樹籬”，因為那是真正的。

– It’s almost a 22% dip from here.

- 距離這裡幾乎是22％。

– It’s a 21.4% ‘bufferish’ area just in case we dip further.

- 這是21.4％的“緩衝”區域，以防萬一我們進一步浸入。

– Significant

- 重要的