比特幣：據頂級經濟學家稱

經濟學家蒂莫西·彼得森（Timothy Peterson）認為，比特幣可能會進入強大的短期集會

Top economist and hedge fund manager Timothy Peterson has weighed in on Bitcoin's potential price movements in the next 90 days, considering a unique macroeconomic factor: U.S. High Yield interest rates.

考慮到一個獨特的宏觀經濟因素：美國高收益利率，頂級經濟學家和對沖基金經理蒂莫西·彼得森（Timothy Peterson）在接下來的90天內對比特幣的潛在價格變動進行了權衡。

As Peterson, the founder of Cornerstone Macro, explained in a recent analysis, his firm's data shows that when High Yield rates exceeded 8%—a threshold currently being tested—the world's leading cryptocurrency displayed a remarkable capacity for recovery.

正如基石宏的創始人彼得森（Peterson）在最近的一項分析中所解釋的那樣，他的公司的數據表明，當高收益率超過8％（目前正在測試的閾值）時，全球領先的加密貨幣將表現出顯著的恢復能力。

Out of 38 periods since 2010 when this scenario occurred and High Yield trailed 8% for at least 30 days, Bitcoin on average reaped a 71% return over the following three months, with a median gain of 31%. The worst loss during those periods was just 16%.

自2010年以來的38個時期中，這種情況發生，高收益率至少落後30天，比特幣平均在接下來的三個月中獲得了71％的回報，中位數增長了31％。在那段時間裡最嚴重的損失僅為16％。

With Bitcoin currently trading around $50,000, this average return from 8% High Yield would put the price between $75,000 and $138,000 in 90 days' time.

隨著比特幣目前的交易約50,000美元，該平均收益率從8％的高收益率將使價格在90天內的75,000美元至138,000美元之間。

However, Peterson also highlighted a key shift in market behavior: the correlation between Bitcoin and the U.S. Dollar Index has reached record levels. While not directly causal, this link reflects how both assets are now being driven by tight liquidity, elevated real interest rates, and risk-averse sentiment.

但是，彼得森還強調了市場行為的關鍵轉變：比特幣與美元指數之間的相關性達到了創紀錄的水平。儘管不是直接因果關係，但此鏈接反映了現在兩個資產的流動性，實際利率升高和規避風險的情緒如何驅動。

“These are macro stress signals—and Bitcoin is reacting just like any major asset class would under pressure,” Peterson said.

彼得森說：“這些是宏觀壓力信號，比特幣正在做出反應，就像任何主要資產類別都在壓力下一樣。”

While this strong correlation is expected to break down later this year as interest rates stabilize and liquidity improves, Peterson anticipates Bitcoin decoupling and resuming a steeper uptrend.

儘管隨著利率穩定和流動性的提高，預計今年晚些時候這種牢固的相關性將分解，但彼得森預計比特幣將脫耦並恢復更陡峭的上升趨勢。

With historical patterns, tightening conditions, and investor behavior aligning, Peterson's analysis points to a possible short-term breakout for BTC—even in the face of ongoing economic headwinds.

彼得森的分析隨著歷史模式，緊縮條件和投資者行為的結算，即使面對持續的經濟逆風，BTC可能會出現短期突破。