比特幣瘋狂上漲、隨後崩盤和長期暴跌的歷史可能即將結束

然而，這些崩盤遠沒有該貨幣早期那麼劇烈，例如 2013 年，當時一枚比特幣的價格從 13 美元左右飆升至當時令人震驚的 1,100 美元，但一年後又跌至 300 美元左右。

The price of Bitcoin has a history of experiencing dramatic surges followed by crashes and prolonged slumps. However, the crashes are not as severe as they were in the earlier days of the cryptocurrency. For instance, in 2013, the price of one Bitcoin soared from around $13 to a then-astounding $1,100, only to slump to around $300 a year later.

比特幣的價格歷來經歷大幅上漲，隨後崩盤和長期暴跌。然而，崩潰並不像加密貨幣早期那麼嚴重。例如，2013 年，一枚比特幣的價格從 13 美元左右飆升至當時令人震驚的 1,100 美元，但一年後又跌至 300 美元左右。

A similar dynamic occurred during the crypto boom years of 2017 and 2021, when Bitcoin hit respective highs of around $20,000 and $69,000, and then fell over 80%.

類似的動態也發生在 2017 年和 2021 年的加密繁榮時期，當時比特幣分別觸及 20,000 美元和 69,000 美元左右的高點，然後下跌超過 80%。

But certain factors may distinguish the most recent bull market from previous cycles.

但某些因素可能會將最近的牛市與先前的周期區分開來。

To begin with, the rally has occurred in two waves. The first wave came early this year when a wave of approvals for new Bitcoin ETFs saw the currency hit a then all-time high of $74,000 before sliding.

首先，反彈分為兩波。第一波浪潮出現在今年年初，當時一波新的比特幣 ETF 獲得批准，比特幣一度觸及當時的歷史新高 74,000 美元，然後下滑。

The second crypto surge followed the November elections, in which Donald Trump, a recent convert to crypto, prevailed alongside pro-crypto Republicans in both the Senate and House of Representatives. This political realignment has dramatically shifted the broader crypto narrative as the U.S. government is expected to embrace the industry after years of trying to stamp it out of existence.

第二次加密貨幣浪潮發生在 11 月的選舉之後，最近轉向加密貨幣的唐納德·川普 (Donald Trump) 與支持加密貨幣的共和黨人一起在參議院和眾議院獲勝。這種政治調整極大地改變了更廣泛的加密貨幣敘事，因為美國政府在多年試圖消滅該行業後預計將擁抱該行業。

In addition to the ETF and political tailwinds, Bitcoin and the crypto industry are also benefiting from big companies and even nation states. This highlights how support for Bitcoin is now far broader and deeper than ever before, suggesting that a dramatic crash of 80% or more—as happened in the past—is unlikely.

除了 ETF 和政治順風之外，比特幣和加密產業還受益於大公司甚至民族國家。這凸顯了現在對比特幣的支持比以往任何時候都更加廣泛和深入，這表明像過去那樣發生 80% 或更多的戲劇性崩盤是不可能的。

Despite these positive fundamentals, the latest rally has again failed to deliver the long-sought “killer application” that would integrate crypto into consumers' daily lives. Instead, it has brought the familiar wave of hype and hustles, as dubious secondary projects seek to capitalize on the speculative frenzy.

儘管有這些積極的基本面，但最近的反彈再次未能提供人們長期尋求的將加密貨幣融入消費者日常生活的「殺手級應用」。相反，它帶來了熟悉的炒作和喧囂浪潮，因為可疑的二級項目試圖利用投機狂潮。

However, crypto veterans might argue that a popular use case has emerged in the form of stablecoins and Bitcoin itself, which has made a stronger case than ever that it is indeed “digital gold”—a rare and secure store of value that is accepted anywhere in the world.

然而，加密貨幣資深人士可能會爭辯說，一種流行的用例已經以穩定幣和比特幣本身的形式出現，這比以往任何時候都更有力地證明它確實是「數位黃金」——一種在任何地方都可以接受的稀有且安全的價值儲存手段。

Finally, despite the popular crypto narrative that Bitcoin is a hedge against macro-economic problems, recent weeks have shown again that crypto prices are still influenced by factors like stock market prices and central bank interest rate decisions.

最後，儘管流行的加密貨幣說法認為比特幣是對沖宏觀經濟問題的工具，但最近幾週再次表明加密貨幣價格仍然受到股市價格和央行利率決策等因素的影響。

Ultimately, history shows that Bitcoin is prone to prolonged slumps after hitting an all-time, but that a new set of fundamentals are likely to make it more resilient than during previous cycles.

最終，歷史表明，比特幣在創下歷史新高後很容易出現長期暴跌，但一套新的基本面可能會使其比之前的周期更具彈性。