比特幣減半迫在眉睫，礦工的前景充滿期待與憂慮

隨著比特幣第四次減半的臨近，分析師預測對數位資產市場的影響。雖然看漲的長期預測占主導地位，但一些令人擔憂的理論表明，礦工將面臨短期痛苦。 Capriole Investments 的 Charles Edwards 警告稱，由於獎勵減少，硬體過時的礦工面臨破產風險，因為在減半後的環境中，挖礦效率變得更加重要。

Upcoming Bitcoin Halving Raises Both Anticipation and Concerns for Miners

即將到來的比特幣減半引發了礦工的期待和擔憂

As the highly anticipated fourth Bitcoin (BTC) halving approaches, cryptocurrency analysts are presenting a spectrum of forecasts regarding its potential impact on the digital asset market. While many forecasts paint a bullish picture, some theories could sound alarming to miners.

隨著備受期待的第四次比特幣（BTC）減半的臨近，加密貨幣分析師對其對數位資產市場的潛在影響提出了一系列預測。儘管許多預測描繪了樂觀的前景，但一些理論可能會讓礦工感到震驚。

Short-Term Challenges for Miners

礦工面臨的短期挑戰

Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards warns that while the halving of miner rewards is expected to be beneficial for Bitcoin in the long run, its short-term consequences may be detrimental to certain players within the BTC ecosystem. Edwards expects "many entities to suffer" in the aftermath of the halving, with some potentially facing bankruptcy in the coming months.

Capriole Investments 創始人 Charles Edwards 警告稱，雖然從長遠來看，礦工獎勵減半預計對比特幣有利，但其短期後果可能對 BTC 生態系統中的某些參與者不利。愛德華茲預計，減半後“許多實體將遭受損失”，其中一些實體可能在未來幾個月面臨破產。

The upcoming halving poses particular challenges for miners utilizing outdated hardware. Edwards predicts that some of these miners may be forced out of business as early as this year.

即將到來的減半給使用過時硬體的礦工帶來了特殊的挑戰。愛德華茲預測，其中一些礦商最快可能在今年被迫關閉。

The fourth Bitcoin halving is anticipated to occur on April 19, 2024, once the network reaches 840,000 block height. This event will reduce the mining reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block. Consequently, miners with energy-inefficient equipment may find it difficult to maintain profitability after the halving.

比特幣第四次減半預計將於 2024 年 4 月 19 日發生，屆時網路達到 84 萬塊高度。此事件將把每個區塊的挖礦獎勵從 6.25 BTC 減少到 3.125 BTC。因此，擁有低能源效率設備的礦工可能會發現在減半後很難維持獲利能力。

Positive Long-Term Effects

正面的長期影響

Despite the potential short-term challenges, the BTC halving is anticipated to have a positive long-term impact on Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency industry. This is primarily due to the inherent scarcity that the halving mechanisms induces.

儘管存在潛在的短期挑戰，但比特幣減半預計將對比特幣和更廣泛的加密貨幣行業產生積極的長期影響。這主要是由於減半機制所導致的固有稀缺性。

Bitcoin's halving is hard-coded into its design and reduces the emission by half every 210,000 blocks, approximately every four years. This process makes Bitcoin a more scarce asset, which, coupled with its limited supply, enhances its economic value.

比特幣的減半被硬編碼到其設計中，每 210,000 個區塊（大約每四年）將排放量減少一半。這個過程使比特幣成為一種更稀缺的資產，加上其有限的供應，提高了其經濟價值。

Tether and Bitfinex CTO Paolo Ardoino emphasizes the significance of the halving in Bitcoin's economics, describing it as "poetic" and "immutable." He views the event as a recurring reminder of the unalterable nature of Bitcoin's design.

Tether 和 Bitfinex 首席技術長 Paolo Ardoino 強調了比特幣減半在比特幣經濟學中的重要性，並將其描述為「詩意的」和「不可改變的」。他認為這起事件一再提醒人們比特幣設計的不可改變性。

Historical Precedent

歷史先例

Following the previous halving on May 10, 2020, Bitcoin's price surged by nearly 600% in just 18 months, providing investors with substantial returns. This historical precedent has fueled optimism among current market participants, who anticipate a similar price appreciation post-halving.

繼2020年5月10日減半後，比特幣價格在短短18個月內飆升近600%，為投資者提供了豐厚的回報。這一歷史先例激發了當前市場參與者的樂觀情緒，他們預計減半後價格也會出現類似的升值。

However, it is important to note that past performance does not guarantee future results, and the upcoming halving may produce different outcomes. Nonetheless, the impending event has captured the attention of the cryptocurrency community, and its effects will be closely monitored in the months and years to come.

但值得注意的是，過去的表現並不能保證未來的結果，即將到來的減半可能會產生不同的結果。儘管如此，即將發生的事件已經引起了加密貨幣社群的關注，其影響將在未來幾個月和幾年內受到密切關注。