ETF 激增，比特幣減半的影響力減弱

Bitcoin Halving Impact: A More Moderate Ascent Amidst ETF Surge

比特幣減半影響：ETF 激增期間漲幅更為溫和

Introduction

介紹

As Bitcoin's upcoming halving event approaches, experts are predicting a potentially muted impact on its price compared to previous cycles. This tempered outlook stems from the significant influence already exerted by spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which have propelled the digital currency to new heights.

隨著比特幣即將到來的減半事件臨近，專家預測，與先前的周期相比，對其價格的影響可能較小。這種溫和的前景源自於現貨比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）已經產生的重大影響，這些基金已將數位貨幣推向新的高度。

ETF Influence: Shaping Bitcoin's Trajectory

ETF 的影響：塑造比特幣的軌跡

The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs has injected unprecedented demand into the market, effectively frontloading the supply shock that typically accompanies a halving event. This surge in demand has driven Bitcoin to record highs, raising concerns that the halving may not elicit the same magnitude of price appreciation as witnessed in the past.

現貨比特幣 ETF 的推出為市場注入了前所未有的需求，有效地提前應對了通常伴隨減半事件而來的供應衝擊。需求激增推動比特幣創下歷史新高，引發人們的擔憂，即減半可能不會引起過去所見的同等幅度的價格升值。

"Since the ETFs have launched, we've already seen a tremendous supply shock," observes Brian Dixon, CEO of Off the Chain Capital. "Once the halving occurs, and that supply is further reduced, it's only logical to think that the price will appreciate."

Off the Chain Capital 執行長 Brian Dixon 表示：“自從 ETF 推出以來，我們已經看到了巨大的供應衝擊。” “一旦減半發生，供應量進一步減少，價格就會上漲是合乎邏輯的。”

Historical Context: Halving's Market Impact

歷史背景：減半的市場影響

Historically, Bitcoin's halving events, which occur every four years, have acted as bullish catalysts. By slicing Bitcoin's supply growth by half, these events have traditionally triggered upward pressure on its price. However, this time around, the ETF phenomenon may alter the expected dynamics.

從歷史上看，每四年發生一次的比特幣減半事件一直是看漲催化劑。透過將比特幣的供應增長削減一半，這些事件傳統上會引發其價格上行壓力。然而，這一次，ETF 現象可能會改變預期動態。

ETF Demand: Outpacing Miner Supply

ETF 需求：超過礦商供應

The demand for Bitcoin from ETFs has far surpassed the daily issuance rate of 900 new BTC. This disparity has created a substantial pull on prices, leaving investors to wonder if the halving will further amplify this trend.

ETF對比特幣的需求已遠遠超過每日900個新BTC的發行量。這種差異對價格造成了巨大的拉動，讓投資者懷疑減半是否會進一步放大這一趨勢。

However, some experts believe that the market may have gotten ahead of itself. "This is the first time in which Bitcoin broke its all-time highs before the halving," notes David Lawant, Head of Research at FalconX. "There is a concern that the ETFs have pulled demand forward."

然而，一些專家認為，市場可能有些超前了。 FalconX 研究主管 David Lawant 表示：“這是比特幣在減半前首次突破歷史高點。” “人們擔心 ETF 拉動了需求。”

Halving's Influence on ETF Flows

減半對ETF流量的影響

The impact of the halving on ETF flows remains uncertain. While the reduced supply could theoretically enhance ETF inflows, Bloomberg Intelligence's ETF analyst James Seyffart suggests a more measured outlook, at least in the short term.

減半對 ETF 流量的影響仍不確定。雖然供應減少理論上可能會增加 ETF 流入，但 Bloomberg Intelligence 的 ETF 分析師 James Seyffart 表示，至少在短期內，前景會更加謹慎。

"Miner sales and ETF inflows have both been large in recent months," Seyffart explains. "So, while the halving may have some impact, it's unlikely to be extremely impactful."

Seyffart 解釋說：“近幾個月來，礦商銷售和 ETF 流入量都很大。” “因此，雖然減半可能會產生一些影響，但不太可能產生極大的影響。”

Halving's Long-Term Significance

減半的長期意義

Despite the potential for a less pronounced short-term impact on price, experts emphasize the enduring significance of the halving. Its role as an inflation protection mechanism and the shrinking supply of Bitcoin are expected to make it an increasingly attractive asset class for institutional investors.

儘管對價格的短期影響可能不太明顯，但專家強調減半的持久意義。其作為通膨保護機制的作用以及比特幣供應的萎縮預計將使其成為對機構投資者越來越有吸引力的資產類別。

"The halving is going to be one of the best things for Bitcoin since the ETFs launched," predicts Bob Iacchino, co-founder of analytics firm Path Trading Partners. "It's at its core an inflation protection mechanism, and inflation is ramping back up."

分析公司 Path Trading Partners 聯合創始人鮑勃·亞奇諾 (Bob Iacchino) 預測：“自 ETF 推出以來，比特幣減半將是最好的事情之一。” “它的核心是通膨保護機制，通膨正在回升。”

ETF Flows: Sustained Growth in Sight

ETF 流量：持續成長在望

The long-term influence of the halving on ETF flows is likely to be positive. Even though ETF inflows have been overshadowing the impact of supply reduction from miners in the first three months, the halving will introduce a permanent decrease in Bitcoin's supply.

減半對 ETF 流量的長期影響可能是正面的。儘管 ETF 的流入掩蓋了前三個月礦商供應減少的影響，但減半將導致比特幣供應永久減少。

Volatile Near-Term Trading

近期交易波動

Market participants should anticipate volatile short-term trading for Bitcoin and ETF flows following the halving, cautions Anthony Anderson, founder and CEO of Param Labs and Kiraverse. However, he expects net flows for the funds to maintain their current pace in the long term.

Param Labs 和 Kiraverse 創辦人兼執行長 Anthony Anderson 警告說，市場參與者應該預期減半後比特幣和 ETF 流量的短期交易會出現波動。不過，他預計這些基金的淨流量將在長期內維持目前的速度。

Conclusion

結論

Bitcoin's upcoming halving event will undoubtedly reverberate through the market. However, the presence of spot Bitcoin ETFs has dampened expectations of a dramatic price surge. Nevertheless, the halving's long-term effects on Bitcoin's value, ETF flows, and its appeal as a safe haven asset will remain positive. As inflation concerns linger and global economic volatility persists, Bitcoin's halving may serve as a catalyst for increased attention from investors seeking alternative assets.

比特幣即將到來的減半事件無疑將在市場上引起迴響。然而，現貨比特幣 ETF 的存在削弱了人們對價格大幅上漲的預期。儘管如此，減半對比特幣價值、ETF 流量及其作為避險資產的吸引力的長期影響仍將是正面的。由於通膨擔憂揮之不去，全球經濟波動持續存在，比特幣減半可能成為尋求替代資產的投資者更多關注的催化劑。