比特幣減半：歷史、當前市場影響與未來前景

在比特幣第四次減半事件之後，專家預計在大幅反彈之前將出現一段盤整期和潛在回檔期。歷史趨勢表明，減半前後會出現下跌，隨後是一段累積期，隨後價值飆升。這種反彈在繁榮週期的後半段尤其明顯，由於機構支持和技術分析指標，山寨幣的表現可能優於比特幣。

Bitcoin's Halving: Historical Trends, Present Market Conditions, and Future Prospects

比特幣減半：歷史趨勢、當前市場狀況與未來前景

Historical Context and Market Behavior

歷史背景與市場行為

Bitcoin's recent fourth halving, which occurred on April 8, 2023, marks a significant event in the cryptocurrency's history. The halving event reduces the block reward for miners by half, thereby limiting the supply of new Bitcoin entering the market. Past halvings have been associated with significant price surges for Bitcoin, but they have also been accompanied by temporary price pullbacks.

比特幣最近的第四次減半發生在 2023 年 4 月 8 日，標誌著加密貨幣歷史上的重大事件。減半事件使礦工的區塊獎勵減少了一半，從而限制了新比特幣進入市場的供應。過去的減半與比特幣價格的大幅上漲有關，但也伴隨著暫時的價格回檔。

In the lead-up to the previous halving events in 2012, 2016, and 2020, Bitcoin experienced substantial rallies. However, in the immediate aftermath of each halving, the price typically underwent a correction. This pattern is attributed to profit-taking and uncertainty among investors.

在 2012 年、2016 年和 2020 年減半事件之前，比特幣經歷了大幅反彈。然而，每次減半後，價格通常都會經歷調整。這種模式歸因於投資者的獲利了結和不確定性。

Current Market Context

目前的市場環境

The current market context surrounding the fourth halving differs from previous cycles in several key aspects. Notably, Bitcoin now enjoys institutional support, with a growing number of large investors and corporations entering the space. This institutional interest has contributed to increased liquidity and stability in the cryptocurrency market.

目前圍繞第四次減半的市場環境在幾個關鍵方面與先前的周期有所不同。值得注意的是，比特幣現在得到了機構的支持，越來越多的大型投資者和企業進入該領域。這種機構利益有助於增加加密貨幣市場的流動性和穩定性。

Post-Halving Outlook: Potential for Continued Growth

減半後展望：持續成長的潛力

Based on historical trends, analysts anticipate that Bitcoin's price will continue to rise in the months following the halving. The influx of institutional capital and the reduction in new supply are expected to drive this positive momentum.

根據歷史趨勢，分析師預計比特幣價格將在減半後的幾個月內繼續上漲。機構資本的湧入和新增供應的減少預計將推動這一積極勢頭。

Stephane Ouellette, chief executive of FRNT Financial, attributes the recent pre-halving rally to the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs. He believes that a gradual inflow of institutional funds will sustain the post-halving boom.

FRNT Financial 執行長 Stephane Ouellette 將近期減半前的反彈歸因於比特幣 ETF 的推出。他認為，機構資金的逐步流入將維持減半後的繁榮。

Some analysts have projected that Bitcoin's price could climb to as high as $400,000 in the next 12 months. Others offer more conservative estimates, with a range of $100,000-$175,000.

一些分析師預計，未來 12 個月內，比特幣的價格可能會攀升至 40 萬美元。其他人則提供更保守的估計，範圍為 100,000 美元至 175,000 美元。

Altcoins: Opportunities for Exponential Gains

山寨幣：指數收益的機會

Altcoins, cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin, have historically underperformed during the first halves of boom cycles. However, in the second halves, altcoins tend to regain momentum and outpace Bitcoin.

山寨幣是比特幣以外的加密貨幣，歷史上在繁榮週期的前半段表現不佳。然而，在下半年，山寨幣往往會恢復勢頭並超過比特幣。

Luke Lango, a crypto expert, believes that altcoins offer significant opportunities for investors following a halving. He cites data showing that over 70 of the top-performing 300 altcoins have experienced gains of over 1,000% within a year and a half of the third halving in May 2020.

加密貨幣專家盧克·蘭戈 (Luke Lango) 認為，山寨幣在減半後為投資者提供了重大機會。他引用的數據顯示，在 2020 年 5 月第三次減半後的一年半內，表現最好的 300 種山寨幣中有超過 70 種的漲幅超過 1,000%。

Quantitative Analysis and Altcoin Selection

定量分析和山寨幣選擇

Lango and his team have developed a quantitative analysis system designed to identify cryptocurrencies poised for significant breakouts. This system has been successfully applied to stock investments, generating substantial returns in a short period.

蘭戈和他的團隊開發了一種定量分析系統，旨在識別有望出現重大突破的加密貨幣。該系統已成功應用於股票投資，在短期內產生了可觀的回報。

Lango will present this system and its results during a free webinar on April 12th, 2023, at 10 am Eastern. He will also reveal the name of an altcoin that the system has recently flagged for potential growth.

Lango 將於 2023 年 4 月 12 日東部時間上午 10 點舉行的免費網路研討會上展示該系統及其結果。他還將透露系統最近標記為具有潛在成長潛力的山寨幣的名稱。

Conclusion: Embracing Opportunities Amidst Volatility

結論：在波動中擁抱機遇

Bitcoin's fourth halving has ushered in a period of both excitement and uncertainty in the cryptocurrency market. While temporary price corrections may occur, historical trends and current market conditions suggest a bullish outlook for Bitcoin and altcoins in the long term. Investors are advised to exercise caution during periods of volatility and to consider the potential opportunities presented by altcoins as the market evolves.

比特幣第四次減半迎來了加密貨幣市場既興奮又不確定的時期。儘管可能會出現暫時的價格調整，但歷史趨勢和當前的市場狀況表明，從長遠來看，比特幣和山寨幣的前景看漲。建議投資者在波動期間保持謹慎，並隨著市場的發展考慮山寨幣帶來的潛在機會。