比特幣減半事件：對加密貨幣市場的影響分析

比特幣減半引發了加密貨幣敘事的轉變，呈現出看漲和看跌的可能性。雖然供應短缺可能會因需求增加而推高價格，但人們對挖礦挑戰的擔憂可能會導致網路參與度下降和 51% 攻擊的風險增加。建議投資人謹慎入市，考慮以下七種加密貨幣：比特幣（BTC）、以太幣（ETH）、Tether（USDT）、BNB（BNB）、Solana（SOL）、XRP（XRP）和Dogecoin（DOGE） 。

The Halving Event and Its Impact on the Cryptocurrency Market: A Comprehensive Analysis

減半事件及其對加密貨幣市場的影響：綜合分析

With the benchmark blockchain asset, Bitcoin, recently completing its halving event, the narrative surrounding cryptocurrencies has become significantly more intriguing. At a fundamental level, the unique digital currency should experience an increase in value based on a simple equation: reduced supply and increased demand. However, the blockchain ecosystem is inherently complex, and the halving event's implications are multifaceted.

隨著基準區塊鏈資產比特幣最近完成減半事件，圍繞加密貨幣的敘述變得更加有趣。從根本上講，獨特的數位貨幣應該根據一個簡單的方程式經歷價值的增加：供應減少和需求增加。然而，區塊鏈生態系統本質上是複雜的，減半事件的影響是多方面的。

Bullish Outlook: Institutional Adoption and ETF Coverage

看漲前景：機構採用和 ETF 覆蓋範圍

The bullish perspective has gained traction since the halving. Cryptocurrencies are not experiencing growth solely due to an isolated event within one particular decentralized digital asset. Instead, more mainstream investors, especially institutional ones, are recognizing the potential value in digital currencies. With exchange-traded funds (ETFs) covering the sector, cryptocurrency adoption is at an all-time high.

自從減半以來，看漲觀點越來越受到重視。加密貨幣的成長不僅歸因於某一特定去中心化數位資產中的孤立事件。相反，更多主流投資者，尤其是機構投資者，正在認識到數位貨幣的潛在價值。隨著交易所交易基金（ETF）覆蓋該行業，加密貨幣的採用率達到歷史最高水準。

Bearish Concerns: Mining Enterprise Challenges and 51% Attack Risk

看跌擔憂：礦業企業面臨的挑戰和 51% 攻擊風險

Alternatively, it is important to consider the bearish case, as recently highlighted by The Block. Specifically, mining enterprises confront new challenges due to the reduced supply of the original cryptocurrency. Many may be forced out of business. If this occurs, network participation could diminish, opening the door to a dreaded scenario: a 51% attack, where a single entity controls the majority of the network.

另外，正如 The Block 最近強調的那樣，考慮看跌情況也很重要。具體來說，由於原生加密貨幣供應量減少，礦企面臨新的挑戰。許多人可能會被迫失業。如果發生這種情況，網路參與可能會減少，從而為可怕的場景打開大門：51% 攻擊，其中單一實體控制了大部分網路。

While the likelihood of such an attack is low, it is not negligible. With this in mind, investors should exercise prudence in their decision-making.

雖然這種攻擊的可能性很低，但也不容忽視。考慮到這一點，投資者應謹慎決策。

Seven Cryptos to Monitor in the Current Market Landscape

在當前市場格局下需要監控的七種加密貨幣

Here is a detailed analysis of seven significant cryptocurrencies to watch in light of the halving event and the evolving market conditions:

以下是根據減半事件和不斷變化的市場狀況對七種值得關注的重要加密貨幣的詳細分析：

1. Bitcoin (BTC-USD)

1. 比特幣（BTC-美元）

Bitcoin, the benchmark blockchain asset, has experienced significant volatility following its halving event. It is currently trading just below $67,000. The price fluctuations are not entirely surprising, considering the adage "buy the rumor, sell the news." Nonetheless, Bitcoin's performance has held up well overall.

比特幣作為區塊鏈基準資產，在減半事件後經歷了大幅波動。目前其交易價格略低於 67,000 美元。考慮到「買謠言，賣新聞」這句格言，價格波動並不完全令人驚訝。儘管如此，比特幣的表現總體上仍保持良好。

However, it is noteworthy that Bitcoin has fallen below its recent high of nearly $74,000. The technical posture of the market suggests a potential downward trend. Bitcoin appears to have broken out of a bullish pennant formation, casting doubt on its ability to continue its ascent.

然而，值得注意的是，比特幣已跌破近 74,000 美元的近期高點。市場的技術態勢顯示潛在的下行趨勢。比特幣似乎已經突破看漲三角旗形態，讓人對其繼續上漲的能力產生懷疑。

Furthermore, Bitcoin has faced difficulty surpassing its 50-day moving average. Additionally, acquisition volume has been declining since late February. With geopolitical uncertainty clouding the broader narrative, it may be prudent to reduce exposure to this asset.

此外，比特幣在突破 50 日移動平均線方面也遇到了困難。此外，自二月底以來，收購量一直在下降。由於地緣政治的不確定性給更廣泛的敘述蒙上陰影，減少對該資產的曝險可能是謹慎的做法。

2. Ethereum (ETH-USD)

2.以太坊（ETH-USD）

While the cryptocurrency market has been largely focused on Bitcoin and its halving event, Ethereum, as the second-most valuable digital asset, warrants attention. In the short term, Ethereum's performance appears respectable, with a 2% increase in market value over the past 24 hours and a 5% increase over the past seven days.

雖然加密貨幣市場主要關注比特幣及其減半事件，但以太坊作為第二大數位資產值得關注。短期來看，以太坊的表現顯得可觀，過去24小時市值上漲2%，過去7天市值上漲5%。

However, a broader perspective suggests that Ethereum has been disappointing. Earlier this month, it was trading at over $4,000, but this value did not last. While it has stabilized around $3,500, there is no guarantee that the bulls will be able to push forward.

然而，從更廣泛的角度來看，以太坊一直令人失望。本月早些時候，其交易價格超過 4,000 美元，但這個價值並沒有持續下去。雖然它已穩定在 3,500 美元左右，但不能保證多頭能夠繼續前進。

Technical analysis indicates that Ethereum may have printed a bearish pennant pattern. The sharp decline on April 12 and the subsequent weak response call this thesis into question. Acquisition volume has been fading since January of this year.

技術分析表明，以太坊可能已形成看跌三角旗圖案。 4 月 12 日的大幅下跌和隨後的疲軟反應使這一論點受到質疑。自今年一月以來，收購量一直在下降。

Given the overall weakness within cryptocurrencies, it may be advisable to reduce exposure to Ethereum as well. Its inability to decisively break past its 20-day exponential moving average further amplifies the skepticism.

鑑於加密貨幣的整體疲軟，建議減少對以太坊的投資。它無法果斷突破 20 日指數移動平均線，這進一步加劇了人們的懷疑。

3. Tether (USDT-USD)

3. 泰達幣（USDT-美元）

The benchmark stablecoin, Tether, currently trades at exact parity with the US dollar. While it does not directly provide insights into the broader health of cryptocurrencies, it is notable that over the past seven days, most of USDT's price action has occurred above the parity line. This suggests that traders may have greater faith in digital currencies than in fiat currencies.

基準穩定幣 Tether 目前的交易價格與美元完全平價。雖然它不能直接提供有關加密貨幣更廣泛健康狀況的見解，但值得注意的是，在過去 7 天裡，USDT 的大部分價格走勢都發生在平價線上方。這表明交易者對數位貨幣的信心可能比對法定貨幣的信心更大。

This is a positive development for blockchain advocates. However, it remains to be seen whether this dynamic will persist. A concerning observation is that USDT has dropped significantly below its one-to-one peg with the dollar over the past week, first on March 27 and again on April 12.

對於區塊鏈倡導者來說，這是一個積極的發展。然而，這種動態是否會持續還有待觀察。一個令人擔憂的觀察結果是，過去一周，USDT 已大幅跌破與美元的一對一掛鉤，第一次是在 3 月 27 日，第二次是在 4 月 12 日。

Looking ahead, circumstances do not appear favorable for Tether. According to on-chain signals provided by TipRanks, the consensus for USDT is predominantly bearish. Additionally, metrics such as net network growth, the number of profitable traders, the concentration of large holders, and the number of large transactions all paint a pessimistic picture.

展望未來，情況似乎對 Tether 不利。根據 TipRanks 提供的鏈上訊號，對 USDT 的共識主要是看跌。此外，網路淨成長、獲利交易者數量、大戶集中度以及大額交易數量等指標都描繪出悲觀的景象。

Investors should exercise caution with cryptocurrencies and take profits when appropriate.

投資者應謹慎對待加密貨幣，並在適當的時候獲利了結。

4. BNB (BNB-USD)

4.BNB（BNB-美元）

Despite the general volatility within the digital currency ecosystem, BNB stands out as one of the rare cryptocurrencies that appear relatively attractive. Over the past seven days, BNB has gained over 10% of its market value. While this may bolster confidence in other blockchain assets, it is still advisable to proceed with caution.

儘管數位貨幣生態系統普遍波動，但 BNB 仍然是少數看起來相對有吸引力的加密貨幣之一。過去 7 天，BNB 市值上漲超過 10%。雖然這可能會增強人們對其他區塊鏈資產的信心，但仍建議謹慎行事。

From March 6 to April 10, BNB appeared to be forming a bullish pennant pattern. However, it began to falter in subsequent sessions, mirroring the behavior of other cryptocurrencies. On April 17, it fell to an intraday low of $513.93, effectively breaking the pennant's structure. Under normal circumstances, this would be considered a bearish signal. However, a bounce back from April 18 onward indicates a potential effort to salvage the rally.

從3月6日到4月10日，BNB似乎正在形成看漲三角旗形態。然而，它在隨後的交易中開始動搖，反映了其他加密貨幣的行為。 4 月 17 日，其跌至盤中低點 513.93 美元，有效打破了三角旗結構。在正常情況下，這將被視為看跌信號。然而，4 月 18 日以來的反彈表明可能會採取挽救漲勢的努力。

BNB's appeal is further enhanced by the fact that it trades above key technical benchmarks, such as the 20-day exponential moving average, the 50 DMA, and the 200 DMA. As long as the bulls continue to support this decentralized asset, it has the potential to continue moving northward.

BNB 的交易價格高於關鍵技術基準（例如 20 日指數移動平均線、50 日均線和 200 日均線），進一步增強了 BNB 的吸引力。只要多頭繼續支持這種去中心化資產，它就有繼續北上的潛力。

However, it is worth noting that acquisition volume has been fading since the March 13 session. Therefore, even with BNB, it may be wise to consider reducing exposure.

但值得注意的是，自3月13日以來，收購量一直在減弱。因此，即使有 BNB，考慮減少風險敞口也可能是明智之舉。

5. Solana (SOL-USD)

5. Solana (SOL-美元)

One of the most popular cryptocurrencies outside of Bitcoin, Solana, has lost some of its earlier momentum. However, the bulls are attempting to stabilize the ship in the short term. Over the past 24 hours, SOL has gained 4%. In the past seven days, it has risen by more than 15%. This is the good news. But there is also some concerning news associated with this rally.

Solana 是比特幣之外最受歡迎的加密貨幣之一，它已經失去了一些早期的勢頭。然而，多頭正試圖在短期內穩定這艘船。在過去 24 小時內，SOL 上漲了 4%。近7天漲幅超過15%。這是個好消息。但也有一些與這次反彈相關的令人擔憂的消息。

Significant volatility has pushed the price downward since the April 12 session. On

自 4 月 12 日以來，劇烈波動推動價格下跌。在