比特幣減半：看漲浪潮還是市場炒作的催化劑？

備受期待的比特幣減半預計將於 4 月 19 日至 20 日發生，這可能會減少代幣供應，並在需求不減少的情況下推高 BTC/美元價格。然而，比特幣定價的多面性意味著減半的看漲影響無法得到最終證明，正如過去的減半事件所證明的那樣。儘管如此，積極的市場情緒和技術分析顯示價格有上漲的潛力，突破盤整區和阻力位成為可能的目標。

Bitcoin Halving: Bullish Catalyst or Market Speculation?

比特幣減半：看漲催化劑還是市場投機？

The highly anticipated Bitcoin halving, a preprogrammed reduction in block mining rewards, is poised to occur in the coming days, sparking both optimism and uncertainty within the cryptocurrency community. Scheduled for April 19-20, the halving has the potential to significantly impact Bitcoin's price trajectory.

備受期待的比特幣減半，即預先設定的區塊挖礦獎勵減少，預計將在未來幾天內發生，從而引發加密貨幣社群的樂觀情緒和不確定性。減半計劃於 4 月 19 日至 20 日進行，有可能對比特幣的價格軌跡產生重大影響。

Theoretically, the halving is expected to reduce the profitability of Bitcoin mining, leading to a decrease in coin supply. This, in turn, could bolster the BTC/USD price, given an unchanged demand for the cryptocurrency. Industry experts, like Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse, have predicted that the halving will contribute to a doubling of the cryptocurrency market capitalization by the end of 2024, reaching an unprecedented $5 trillion.

理論上，減半預計會降低比特幣挖礦的獲利能力，導致比特幣供應量減少。鑑於對加密貨幣的需求不變，這反過來可能會提振比特幣/美元的價格。 Ripple執行長布拉德·加林豪斯（Brad Garlinghouse）等行業專家預測，減半將導致2024年底加密貨幣市值翻一番，達到前所未有的5萬億美元。

However, the Bitcoin price is subject to a multitude of factors, making it challenging to predict the precise impact of the halving. Historically, the previous halving on May 11, 2020, resulted in an approximate 12% price increase within the following week. Yet, it is equally possible that today's Bitcoin price already reflects anticipation of the upcoming event.

然而，比特幣價格受到多種因素的影響，因此很難準確預測減半的影響。從歷史上看，2020 年 5 月 11 日的上一次減半導致接下來一周內價格上漲約 12%。然而，同樣有可能的是，今天的比特幣價格已經反映了對即將發生的事件的預期。

Despite this uncertainty, the market sentiment remains predominantly positive. Over the recent weekend, the BTC/USD price surged by approximately 2.5%, signaling bullish expectations.

儘管存在這種不確定性，但市場情緒仍然主要是正面的。最近週末，BTC兌美元價格飆升約 2.5%，釋放出看漲預期。

Technical analysis of the BTC/USD chart provides further insights into potential price movements. Since April 2-4, the price has remained above the lower boundary of an ascending channel, indicating a lack of downward pressure. Additionally, a series of higher lows formed since April 2 suggests bullish intentions to break above a descending channel.

BTC/USD 圖表的技術分析可以進一步洞察潛在的價格趨勢。自4月2日至4日以來，價格一直保持在上升通道下限上方，顯示缺乏下行壓力。此外，自 4 月 2 日以來形成的一系列較高低點表明看漲意圖突破下降通道。

Consequently, the approaching halving and associated optimism could lead to several key developments:

因此，即將到來的減半和相關的樂觀情緒可能會導致幾個關鍵的發展：

• Breakout above the current consolidating zone, bounded by black lines on the chart.
• Surpassing a significant resistance level near the psychological mark of $70,000 per coin.

In this bullish scenario, the nearest target for Bitcoin could be the median line of the blue ascending channel.

突破目前盤整區域，以圖表上的黑線為界。突破每枚代幣 70,000 美元心理關卡附近的重要阻力位。在這種看漲情況下，比特幣最近的目標可能是藍色上升通道的中線。

While the Bitcoin halving presents potential opportunities for investors, it is crucial to approach it cautiously. The cryptocurrency market remains highly volatile, and market conditions can change rapidly. As such, it is essential to conduct thorough research and manage risk effectively before making any investment decisions.

雖然比特幣減半為投資者帶來了潛在的機會，但謹慎對待這一點至關重要。加密貨幣市場仍然高度波動，市場狀況可能會迅速變化。因此，在做出任何投資決策之前，必須進行徹底的研究並有效地管理風險。

FXOpen, the industry-leading provider of cryptocurrency CFDs, offers investors a unique platform to capitalize on the market's movements. With floating spreads and 1:2 leverage, traders can access the most popular cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin and Ethereum.

FXOpen 是業界領先的加密貨幣差價合約供應商，為投資者提供了一個利用市場走勢獲利的獨特平台。透過浮動點差和 1:2 槓桿，交易者可以存取最受歡迎的加密貨幣，包括比特幣和以太坊。

Disclaimer:

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This article represents the opinions of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand and should not be construed as financial advice.

本文代表以 FXOpen 品牌營運的公司的意見，不應被視為財務建議。