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由於這兩項資產均引領市場,因此我們將仔細研究推動其卓越表現的因素。
Bitcoin (BTC) and gold have both experienced remarkable performances in 2023, with bitcoin emerging as the top-performing asset for the first time since its inception in 2009. Both assets are outpacing major stock indices and other commodities, driven by factors such as monetary debasement and Federal Reserve liquidity trends.
比特幣(BTC) 和黃金在2023 年都經歷了令人矚目的表現,比特幣自2009 年誕生以來首次成為表現最佳的資產。了主要股指和其他大宗商品。
In the past five days, bitcoin has surged 7%, breaking through the $64,000 price level for the first time since Aug. 26. Gold, for its part, has reached all-time highs on over 30 occasions this year, topping the $2,600 an ounce mark. These performances are noteworthy as they mark the first time both assets are the top performers of the year, according to Charlie Bilello, the chief market strategist at Creative Planning, an investment management and financial planning firm.
在過去五天裡,比特幣飆升 7%,自 8 月 26 日以來首次突破 64,000 美元價格水平。投資管理和財務規劃公司 Creative Planning 的首席市場策略師 Charlie Bilello 表示,這些表現值得注意,因為這標誌著這兩種資產首次成為年度表現最佳的資產。
“Bitcoin and gold are the top performing assets of 2023, something that hasn’t happened a single year since bitcoin was created in 2009,” wrote Bilello in a recent Substack post.
Bilello 在最近的 Substack 帖子中寫道:“比特幣和黃金是 2023 年表現最好的資產,這是自 2009 年比特幣創建以來從未出現過的情況。”
Chart showing the performance of major stock indices, bitcoin and gold in 2023. (Substack)
顯示 2023 年主要股指、比特幣和黃金表現的圖表。
Stock markets began the year in a downturn as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to combat high inflation. However, major indices such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have rallied in 2023, largely driven by easing inflation and anticipation of a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy.
由於聯準會提高利率以應對高通膨,股市年初陷入低迷。然而,標普500指數和那斯達克指數等主要指數在2023年反彈,主要是受到通膨緩解和美國經濟「軟著陸」預期的推動。
Bitcoin and gold, on the other hand, have outperformed major stock indices and other commodities such as oil and copper. Year-to-date, bitcoin has risen 27%, outpacing its 2020 performance of 25%. The last time it performed better was in 2007. Gold is also up 27% in 2023.
另一方面,比特幣和黃金的表現優於主要股指以及石油和銅等其他大宗商品。今年迄今為止,比特幣已上漲 27%,超過 2020 年 25% 的漲幅。上一次表現更好是在 2007 年。
Monetary Debasement and Gold
貨幣貶值和黃金
Gold has historically been seen as a hedge against monetary debasement and global uncertainty, and current economic conditions suggest it is again fulfilling this role.
黃金歷來被視為對沖貨幣貶值和全球不確定性的工具,而當前的經濟狀況表明黃金正在再次發揮這一作用。
The recent surge in gold prices can be attributed to several factors. Notably, gold began its rally before the significant monetary debasement triggered by the Covid pandemic in 2020, while bitcoin emerged as a star performer in late 2020 and into 2021. With bitcoin now just 14% away from its all-time high, is it playing catch-up once again?
近期金價的飆漲可歸因於多個因素。值得注意的是,黃金在2020 年新冠疫情引發貨幣大幅貶值之前就開始上漲,而比特幣則在2020 年底和2021 年成為明星表現者。作用嗎?
A closer examination reveals that bitcoin's price tends to move in line with the Federal Reserve's net liquidity metric. This measure, calculated by subtracting reverse repo and the Treasury General Account from the Fed's balance sheet, indicates that bitcoin tends to follow liquidity trends.
仔細檢查發現,比特幣的價格往往與聯準會的淨流動性指標一致。這項指標是透過從聯準會的資產負債表中減去逆回購和財政部普通帳戶來計算的,顯示比特幣往往遵循流動性趨勢。
Both bitcoin and net liquidity bottomed out toward the end of 2022, coinciding with the FTX collapse. Since then, bitcoin has steadily risen alongside an increase in net liquidity, which now exceeds $6 trillion.
比特幣和淨流動性均在 2022 年底觸底,恰逢 FTX 崩潰。此後,隨著淨流動性的增加,比特幣穩定上漲,目前淨流動性已超過 6 兆美元。
The Federal Reserve's balance sheet currently stands at $7.1 trillion, and although it is still engaging in quantitative tightening, the pace has slowed. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in March 2023 led to a $1.6 trillion reduction in the balance sheet, bringing it back to levels seen during the initial phases of quantitative easing in response to the pandemic.
聯準會目前的資產負債表為7.1兆美元,儘管仍在進行量化緊縮,但步伐已經放緩。 2023 年 3 月,矽谷銀行 (SVB) 倒閉,導致資產負債表減少 1.6 兆美元,回到應對疫情的量化寬鬆初始階段的水平。
The draining of reverse repo balances, now just over $300 billion, releases liquidity back into the financial system. This is stimulative, increasing the availability of funds for lending, investment, and overall economic activity.
逆回購餘額的耗盡目前剛超過 3,000 億美元,將流動性釋放回金融體系。這是刺激性的,增加了貸款、投資和整體經濟活動的資金可用性。
Looking more broadly, the combined balance sheets of the world's 15 largest central banks – including the U.S., European Union, Japan and China – approach $31 trillion. While this number alone is not the focus, the trend shows a global resurgence in central bank balance sheets from about $30 trillion in July. This increase in liquidity is particularly
從更廣泛的角度來看,包括美國、歐盟、日本和中國在內的全球 15 家最大央行的資產負債表合計接近 31 兆美元。雖然這個數字本身並不是焦點,但這一趨勢表明全球央行資產負債表從 7 月的約 30 兆美元開始復甦。此次流動性的增加尤其
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