比特幣第四次減半：具有供應、使用和價格影響的里程碑

Kraken 策略主管 Thomas Perfumo 認為比特幣第四次減半具有“象徵意義”，標誌著一個重要的里程碑，94% 的比特幣已被開採，未來通膨率低於 1%。然而，包括瑞穗證券(Mizuho Securities) 的 Dan Dolev 和BitMEX 創始人在內的一些市場專家預計，由於宣傳力度加大和潛在的地緣政治風險，將會出現「拋售新聞」事件。

Bitcoin's Fourth Halving: Symbolic Milestone with Unique Supply and Usage Implications

比特幣第四次減半：具有獨特供應和使用影響的象徵性里程碑

The highly anticipated fourth halving of Bitcoin (BTC) has occurred, marking a significant milestone in the cryptocurrency's history. This halving cycle stands out from its predecessors, with unique characteristics that have implications for supply, usage, and price.

備受期待的比特幣（BTC）第四次減半已經發生，標誌著加密貨幣歷史上的重要里程碑。這個減半週期與先前的減半週期不同，具有對供應、使用和價格產生影響的獨特特徵。

Symbolic Significance

象徵意義

According to Kraken's Head of Strategy, Thomas Perfumo, the fourth halving is particularly symbolic. It coincides with a period of heightened scrutiny of conventional currencies, inflation, interest rates, and the overall economic environment. This event underscores Bitcoin's potential as an alternative currency, offering inflation protection and limited supply.

Kraken 策略主管 Thomas Perfumo 表示，第四次減半尤其具有像徵意義。恰逢傳統貨幣、通貨膨脹、利率和整體經濟環境受到嚴格審查的時期。這一事件強調了比特幣作為替代貨幣的潛力，提供通貨膨脹保護和有限的供應。

Supply Impact

供應影響

With the halving, 94% of the total Bitcoin supply that will ever exist has now been mined. The circulating supply will now experience less than 1% inflation going forward, further reducing the issuance rate of new coins. This supply constraint contributes to Bitcoin's inherent value proposition as a scarce and immutable asset.

隨著減半，比特幣總供應量的 94% 現已被開採。未來流通供應量的通貨膨脹率將低於 1%，這將進一步降低新幣的發行率。這種供應限制有助於比特幣作為稀缺且不可變資產的內在價值主張。

Short-Term Price Prospects

短期價格前景

Market analysts anticipate potential sell pressure in the short term following the halving. Dan Dolev, Managing Director of Mizuho Securities, suggests that the event has been extensively priced in, leading to a "sell-the-news" scenario.

市場分析師預計減半後短期內可能出現拋售壓力。瑞穗證券 (Mizuho Securities) 董事總經理 Dan Dolev 表示，這起事件已被廣泛定價，導致「拋售新聞」的情況。

The heightened publicity surrounding this halving cycle compared to previous ones could amplify this sell-off. BitMEX's founder has echoed similar sentiments, citing the US tax season and geopolitical risks as potential catalysts for a liquidity crunch and downward pressure on BTC's price.

與先前的減半週期相比，圍繞這一減半週期的宣傳力度加大，可能會加劇這種拋售。 BitMEX 的創始人也表達了類似的觀點，稱美國納稅季和地緣政治風險是流動性緊縮和比特幣價格下行壓力的潛在催化劑。

Potential Bearish Sentiment

潛在的看跌情緒

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Iran, could further contribute to bearish sentiment in the short term. Escalation in the region could trigger risk aversion among investors, leading to a flight from riskier assets such as Bitcoin.

中東的地緣政治緊張局勢，特別是以色列和伊朗之間的緊張局勢，可能會在短期內進一步加劇看跌情緒。該地區局勢升級可能會引發投資者的避險情緒，導致投資者逃離比特幣等風險較高的資產。

Volatility and Support Levels

波動性和支撐位

Despite these short-term concerns, BTC's price remains highly volatile. It is likely to continue fluctuating within its established support and resistance levels, even after the halving. The magnitude and timing of any price movements remain uncertain, underscoring the inherent volatility of the cryptocurrency market.

儘管有這些短期擔憂，比特幣的價格仍然高度波動。即使在減半之後，它也可能繼續在既定的支撐位和阻力位內波動。任何價格變動的幅度和時間仍然不確定，凸顯了加密貨幣市場固有的波動性。

Conclusion

結論

Bitcoin's fourth halving marks a pivotal moment in its evolution, with unique supply and usage implications. While the short-term price prospects remain uncertain due to sell pressure and geopolitical risks, the long-term value proposition of Bitcoin as a scarce and inflation-resistant asset remains intact. Market participants should closely monitor price movements and geopolitical developments to navigate the post-halving environment effectively.

比特幣的第四次減半標誌著其演變的關鍵時刻，具有獨特的供應和使用影響。儘管由於拋售壓力和地緣政治風險，短期價格前景仍然不確定，但比特幣作為稀缺和抗通膨資產的長期價值主張仍然完好無損。市場參與者應密切注意價格走勢和地緣政治發展，以有效應對減半後的環境。