比特幣 ETF 市場預計在 5.6 萬美元支撐位復甦

在現貨比特幣 ETF 市場淨流量低迷的情況下，分析師 Ki Young Ju 根據歷史趨勢預測可能會出現復甦。 Ju 強調了 56,000 美元價格水平的重要性，新的 BTC 鯨魚和 ETF 買家已經建立了一致的鏈上成本基礎。 Ju 表示，如果比特幣重新回到這個水平，可能會引發大量資金流入現貨比特幣 ETF 市場。儘管價格持續下跌，但 Ju 仍然保持樂觀，因為歷史牛市調整通常會帶來 30% 左右的最大回撤，可能導致比特幣跌至 51,000 美元。

Is Bitcoin ETF Market Poised for a Resurgence?

比特幣 ETF 市場是否已準備好復甦？

Despite subdued netflows, some analysts remain optimistic about the future of the spot Bitcoin ETF market. Ki Young Ju, CEO of Cryptoquant, believes that a potential revival is on the horizon.

儘管淨流量低迷，一些分析師仍然對現貨比特幣 ETF 市場的未來感到樂觀。 Cryptoquant 執行長 Ki Young Ju 認為，潛在的復甦即將到來。

What's the Significance of the $56,000 Level?

56,000 美元水準有何意義？

Ju highlights the importance of the $56,000 price level, noting that new BTC whales, particularly ETF buyers, have shown a consistent on-chain cost basis around this mark. This suggests that significant Bitcoin holders, especially those invested in ETFs, tend to have acquired their holdings at an average price of $56,000.

Ju 強調了 56,000 美元價格水平的重要性，並指出新的 BTC 鯨魚，尤其是 ETF 買家，在這個水平附近表現出了一致的鏈上成本基礎。這表明重要的比特幣持有者，尤其是那些投資於 ETF 的人，往往以平均價格 56,000 美元購買其持有的比特幣。

Could Bitcoin Dip Below $56,000?

比特幣會跌破 56,000 美元嗎？

While Bitcoin's price has been fluctuating between $62,000 and $68,000, Ju remains optimistic about the potential for a further descent. He suggests that price corrections during bull markets typically entail a maximum drawdown of around 30%. Based on Bitcoin's recent peak of $73,750, he believes that the cryptocurrency could still dip as low as $51,000.

儘管比特幣的價格一直在 62,000 美元至 68,000 美元之間波動，但 Ju 對進一步下跌的可能性仍然樂觀。他表示，牛市期間的價格調整通常會帶來 30% 左右的最大回撤。基於比特幣最近的峰值 73,750 美元，他認為該加密貨幣仍可能跌至 51,000 美元。

What Happens If Bitcoin Retests $56,000?

如果比特幣重新測試 56,000 美元會發生什麼？

Ju believes that if Bitcoin were to revisit the $56,000 price level, the spot Bitcoin ETF market could witness substantial inflows. This is because significant Bitcoin holders, particularly those invested in ETFs, would be incentivized to buy more at a price they consider to be favorable.

Ju認為，如果比特幣重新回到56,000美元的價格水平，現貨比特幣ETF市場可能會出現大量資金流入。這是因為重要的比特幣持有者，特別是那些投資於 ETF 的人，將受到激勵以他們認為有利的價格購買更多比特幣。

Is Bitcoin Approaching Its Price Peak?

比特幣是否已接近其價格高峰？

Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $64,065.74, reflecting a decline of 3.73% in the past 24 hours and 7.17% over the past week. With a daily trading volume valued at $39.62 billion, Bitcoin's price movements continue to capture the attention of investors and analysts alike. However, amidst speculations about the potential peak of Bitcoin's price leading up to the halving event in April, uncertainties loom over whether the cryptocurrency will revisit previous high price levels in the near future.

目前，比特幣交易價格為64,065.74美元，過去24小時下跌3.73%，過去一週下跌7.17%。比特幣的每日交易量高達 396.2 億美元，其價格走勢持續吸引投資者和分析師的注意。然而，當人們猜測比特幣價格可能會在 4 月減半之前見頂時，加密貨幣是否會在不久的將來重回之前的高價格水平存在不確定性。

Market Trends and Key Support Levels

市場趨勢和關鍵支撐位

One critical level highlighted by Ju is $56,000, which holds significance for new BTC whales, particularly ETF buyers. Analysis of on-chain data reveals that these significant holders typically have a $56,000 on-chain cost basis, indicating their average purchase price for Bitcoin. Should Bitcoin descend to this specified price level, Ju anticipates a wave of massive inflows into the spot Bitcoin ETF market.

Ju 強調的一個關鍵水平是 56,000 美元，這對於新的 BTC 鯨魚，尤其是 ETF 買家來說具有重要意義。對鏈上數據的分析表明，這些重要持有者的鏈上成本通常為 56,000 美元，這表明他們購買比特幣的平均價格。 Ju 預計，如果比特幣跌至這一特定價格水平，將會出現一波大規模資金流入現貨比特幣 ETF 市場的情況。

Could Bitcoin Drop to $51,000?

比特幣會跌至 51,000 美元嗎？

While Bitcoin's price currently hovers between $62,000 and $68,000, Ju believes that further descent is plausible, considering historical price correction patterns. In bull markets, corrections typically entail a maximum drawdown of around 30%, suggesting that Bitcoin could still trade as low as $51,000 based on its recent high of $73,750.

雖然比特幣的價格目前徘徊在 62,000 美元至 68,000 美元之間，但 Ju 認為，考慮到歷史價格修正模式，進一步下跌是合理的。在多頭市場中，調整通常需要最大 30% 左右的回撤，這表明比特幣在近期高點 73,750 美元的基礎上仍可能低至 51,000 美元。

Conclusion: Hope Amidst Price Declines

結論：價格下跌中的希望

While the spot Bitcoin ETF market faces challenges amid the price decline, insights from analysts like Ki Young Ju offer a ray of hope for potential recovery. As investors navigate the volatile cryptocurrency landscape, understanding market trends and key support levels becomes increasingly crucial for informed decision-making.

儘管現貨比特幣 ETF 市場因價格下跌而面臨挑戰，但 Ki Young Ju 等分析師的見解為潛在復甦帶來了一線希望。隨著投資者應對動盪的加密貨幣格局，了解市場趨勢和關鍵支撐水平對於做出明智的決策變得越來越重要。