比特幣優勢（BTC.D）分形表明Altcoin季節接近

作為對Altcoin季節坐騎的期望，對比特幣優勢（BTC.D）的新技術分析在2021年至2025年之間引起了驚人的相似之處

With anticipation building for an altcoin season, a new technical analysis of the Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) draws striking parallels between the 2021 and 2025 market cycles, to assess the likelihood of another bull run for altcoins.

隨著對Altcoin季節的預期建設，對比特幣優勢（BTC.D）進行了新的技術分析，在2021年至2025年的市場週期之間取得了驚人的相似之處，以評估另一種公牛競選Altcoins的可能性。

Historically, Bitcoin Dominance has been a key indicator in predicting the likelihood of an altcoin season, as a decline in BTC.D often signals a shift in investors’ focus on alternative cryptocurrencies.

從歷史上看，比特幣的優勢一直是預測Altcoin季節可能性的關鍵指標，因為BTC.D的下降通常表明投資者對替代加密貨幣的關注的轉變。

Crypto analyst Luca on X (formerly Twitter) is questioning whether history is repeating itself as similar past market trends emerge in this current cycle. The analyst shared two parallel charts, tracking the Bitcoin Dominance market capitalization and the start of the altcoin season.

X（以前是Twitter）上的加密分析師盧卡（Luca）質疑歷史在當前週期中是否會重複自己的過去市場趨勢。分析師分享了兩個並行圖表，跟踪比特幣優勢市值和Altcoin季節的開始。

The chart compared the BTC.D market cap in the 2021 and 2025 cycles, revealing an eerily similar pattern that unfolded during the bull market in 2021. Back then, many investors had anticipated the start of the altcoin season immediately after BTC.D hit a high-timeframe resistance. However, to the surprise of the broader market, Bitcoin’s dominance deviated above the resistance, leading to a mass sell-off in altcoins.

該圖表比較了2021年和2025年周期的BTC.D市值，揭示了2021年牛市期間在牛市上展開的奇特模式。當時，許多投資者預計BTC.D碰到了Altcoin季節的開始較高的阻力。但是，令更廣泛的市場感到驚訝的是，比特幣的主導地位偏離了抵抗力，導致山寨幣的大規模拋售。

Fast-forward to 2025, Luca believes this narrative is playing out again. As BTC.D dropped below the 61% resistance zone, the market hoped for a rotation into altcoins. Instead, BTC.D surged even higher, deviating again and triggering a mass capitulation of altcoins.

盧卡（Luca）快進到2025年，這種敘述再次發揮作用。隨著BTC.D降至61％的電阻區以下，市場希望旋轉到AltCoins。取而代之的是，BTC.D飆升甚至更高，再次偏離並觸發了AltCoins的質量投降。

Luca’s Bitcoin Dominance chart shows the resistance zone where BTC.D struggled to break through in 2021 and 2025. In both cycles, BTC.D deviated from this resistance level. However, after the shift in 2021, Bitcoin dominance fell sharply to the green zone between 58% and 60%. This zone corresponded with a major rally that sparked the start of the altcoin season.

盧卡（Luca）的比特幣優勢圖顯示了BTC.D在2021年和2025年努力突破的電阻區。在這兩個循環中，BTC.D都偏離了該電阻水平。但是，在2021年的轉變之後，比特幣優勢急劇下降到58％至60％的綠色區域。該區域與激發Altcoin賽季開始的重大集會相對應。

In the 2025 BTC.D chart, Luca highlighted the next green zone as around 54.56%. If historical trends repeat, BTC.D may drop to this low level and potentially trigger a similar rally to kickstart this cycle’s anticipated altcoin season.

在2025年BTC.D圖表中，Luca強調了下一個綠色區域約為54.56％。如果歷史趨勢重複，BTC.D可能會下降到這個低水平，並可能觸發類似的集會，以啟動該週期預期的Altcoin季節。

At the moment, all eyes are on BTC.D as the market awaits its next move, which could define the fate of altcoins in this bull market. The analyst notes that the key question remains: will history repeat itself, or will the 2025 cycle run a new course?

目前，隨著市場等待下一步行動，所有目光都關注BTC.D，這可以定義牛市市場上的山寨幣的命運。分析師指出，關鍵問題仍然存在：歷史將重演，還是2025週期會運行新課程？

Meanwhile, another X post by crypto analyst Brucer argues that the 2025 altcoin season may not occur. The analyst presents three primary reasons for this analysis.

同時，加密分析師Brucer的另一篇X帖子認為，可能不會發生2025 Altcoin季節。分析師提出了此分析的三個主要原因。

Firstly, Brucer argues that past altcoin seasons were driven by major events like the 2017 ICO boom, and each cycle varies in intensity and may not always present the same conditions.

首先，布魯克（Brucer）認為，過去的Altcoin季節是由2017年ICO繁榮等重大事件驅動的，每個週期的強度都會有所不同，並且可能並不總是呈現相同的條件。

Secondly, Brucer notes that altcoins are currently struggling to reach previous highs while Bitcoin’s dominance continues to rise, now sitting above a 60% market cap.

其次，Brucer指出，Altcoins目前正在努力達到以前的高點，而比特幣的統治地位持續上升，目前正處於60％的市場上限。

Lastly, the analyst suggests that an altcoin season 2025 is unlikely unless significant macroeconomic changes occur.

最後，分析師認為，除非發生重大的宏觀經濟變化，否則不太可能是2025年的Altcoin季。