比特幣下跌引發擔憂，但選擇權數據預示可能反彈

儘管最近價格下跌，但對比特幣（BTC）選擇權數據的分析揭示了樂觀的理由。衡量市場波動預期的隱含波動率已降至 70% 以下，顯示波動性可能下降。

Bitcoin Price Dip Raises Concerns, But Options Data Hints at Optimism

比特幣價格下跌引發擔憂，但選擇權數據暗示樂觀

New York, NY, March 29, 2023 – Recent price fluctuations in the Bitcoin market have stirred concerns among investors, but an analysis of options data reveals potential reasons for optimism.

紐約，2023 年 3 月 29 日—比特幣市場近期的價格波動引起了投資者的擔憂，但對選擇權數據的分析揭示了樂觀的潛在理由。

Declining Volatility Expectations

波動率預期下降

Despite the recent price dip, options data indicates a decline in market volatility expectations. This is evident in the Bitcoin implied volatility (Dvol) falling below 70%, according to data from options trading terminal Greeks Live. This trend aligns with observations made at the end of last month, suggesting a decrease in volatility pressure.

儘管最近價格下跌，但選擇權數據顯示市場波動預期下降。根據選擇權交易終端 Greeks Live 的數據，這一點在比特幣隱含波動率 (Dvol) 跌破 70% 方面表現得很明顯。這一趨勢與上月底的觀察結果一致，顯示波動壓力有所下降。

Macroeconomic Factors

宏觀經濟因素

Friday's release of U.S. unemployment data for March is a key macroeconomic event. Strong economic data could lower the probability of the Federal Reserve implementing a rate cut in May, as per Greeks Live. The market's expectation of a May rate cut has already dropped from 90% last month to 50% currently. This shift in Fed policy expectations could have an impact on Bitcoin's price trajectory.

週五公佈的美國三月失業數據是關鍵的宏觀經濟事件。根據 Greeks Live 報道，強勁的經濟數據可能會降低聯準會 5 月實施降息的可能性。市場對5月降息的預期已從上月的90%降至目前的50%。聯準會政策預期的這種轉變可能會對比特幣的價格軌跡產生影響。

Whales Positioning

鯨魚定位

While recent block trades have shown weakness, with major cryptocurrency holders known as "whales" primarily purchasing call options (bullish bets) after the Bitcoin halving, it is important to monitor their next moves. Whales can significantly influence market direction based on their trading activity.

雖然最近的大宗交易表現疲軟，被稱為「鯨魚」的主要加密貨幣持有者在比特幣減半後主要購買看漲期權（看漲押注），但監控他們的下一步行動很重要。鯨魚可以根據其交易活動顯著影響市場方向。

Potential Rebound

潛在反彈

The combined factors of potentially less hawkish Fed policy due to strong economic data, falling volatility expectations, and whales accumulating call options suggest a potential rebound for Bitcoin. However, the market remains dynamic, and close attention should be paid to tomorrow's unemployment data and any future actions by major holders.

由於強勁的經濟數據、波動性預期下降以及鯨魚累積看漲期權，聯準會政策可能不再那麼鷹派，這些綜合因素表明比特幣可能出現反彈。然而，市場仍然充滿活力，應密切關註明天的失業數據以及主要持有者未來的行動。

Future Considerations

未來的考慮因素

With ongoing market fluctuations and evolving economic conditions, accurately predicting Bitcoin's future trajectory can be challenging. Benzinga's upcoming Future of Digital Assets conference on November 19 will be a valuable platform for in-depth discussions on Bitcoin's price drivers, market psychology, and potential regulatory changes.

隨著持續的市場波動和不斷變化的經濟狀況，準確預測比特幣的未來軌跡可能具有挑戰性。 Benzinga 即將於 11 月 19 日舉行的數位資產未來會議將成為深入討論比特幣價格驅動因素、市場心理和潛在監管變化的寶貴平台。

Conclusion

結論

While the recent Bitcoin price dip has raised concerns, options data and macroeconomic factors suggest reasons for cautious optimism. Investors should closely monitor the upcoming unemployment data and the actions of major holders in the crypto market. The Future of Digital Assets conference will provide further insights into the potential trajectory of Bitcoin and other digital assets.

雖然最近的比特幣價格下跌引發了擔憂，但選擇權數據和宏觀經濟因素顯示了謹慎樂觀的理由。投資者應密切關注即將公佈的失業數據以及加密貨幣市場主要持有者的行動。數位資產的未來會議將進一步深入了解比特幣和其他數位資產的潛在軌跡。