比特幣下跌是復甦的必要條件嗎？

比特幣的交易價格約為 94,000 美元，與 108,000 美元以上的歷史高點 (ATH) 相差甚遠，投資者正在評估復甦的潛力。

Bitcoin price dropped significantly below its all-time high in 2025. While some analysts predict further declines, others remain optimistic about the recovery potential.

比特幣價格在 2025 年大幅跌破歷史高點。

Bitcoin price is currently hovering around $94,000, a far cry from the all-time high (ATH) set earlier this year at over $108,000. As the market dips, investors are keeping a close eye on the potential for a recovery and the factors that could influence it.

比特幣價格目前徘徊在 94,000 美元左右，與今年早些時候創下的 108,000 美元以上的歷史高點 (ATH) 相去甚遠。隨著市場下跌，投資者正在密切關注復甦的潛力以及可能影響復甦的因素。

Several analysts, including Tom Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors, have suggested that Bitcoin could experience further declines before entering a new bullish phase. Lee's analysis indicates that the price could drop to $70,000 or even lower, around $50,000.

包括 Fundstrat Global Advisors 的 Tom Lee 在內的幾位分析師表示，比特幣在進入新的看漲階段之前可能會經歷進一步下跌。 Lee的分析表明，價格可能會跌至70,000美元，甚至更低，約50,000美元。

However, the renowned analyst maintains that such corrections are typical for an asset with Bitcoin's volatility and often correspond to the halving cycle, which has historically served as a key driver of growth for the cryptocurrency.

然而，這位著名分析師堅持認為，這種調整對於具有比特幣波動性的資產來說是典型的，並且通常與減半週期相對應，而減半週期歷來是加密貨幣增長的關鍵驅動力。

Analyzing the current market dynamics, Bitcoin has undergone a 15% correction from its December peak, with crucial support levels at $88,000 and $90,000. Technical patterns, such as a falling wedge and V-shaped recovery, suggest the potential for bullish momentum.

分析當前市場動態，比特幣較 12 月高峰已經歷 15% 的回調，關鍵支撐位為 88,000 美元和 90,000 美元。下降楔形和 V 形復甦等技術形態顯示看漲勢頭的潛力。

According to several analysts, including Recht Capital, a daily close above $91,000 is critical to sustaining the uptrends and keeping the market bullish.

包括 Recht Capital 在內的幾位分析師表示，每日收盤價高於 91,000 美元對於維持上漲趨勢和保持市場看漲至關重要。

Despite the market dips, institutional players like MicroStrategy have engaged in aggressive buying, with the company adding 2,530 BTC during this downturn.

儘管市場下跌，像 MicroStrategy 這樣的機構參與者仍然積極買入，該公司在這次低迷時期增持了 2,530 比特幣。

Moreover, several opportunities and risks present themselves in the current market landscape. Failure to hold support levels could lead to further price declines and potentially amplify the market downturn.

此外，目前的市場格局還存在一些機會和風險。未能守住支撐位可能會導致價格進一步下跌，並可能加劇市場低迷。

However, historical trends indicate a strong rebound as the market shifts into February, a month that has traditionally brought bullish momentum to Bitcoin.

然而，歷史趨勢表明，隨著市場進入二月，傳統上為比特幣帶來看漲勢頭的月份將出現強勁反彈。

In terms of opportunities, the current dip could serve as an advantageous entry point for investors aiming to accumulate Bitcoin and capitalize on the next bullish cycle.

就機會而言，當前的下跌可能成為投資者累積比特幣並利用下一個看漲週期的有利切入點。

As we approach the end of January, several crucial dates to watch for in relation to Bitcoin price include the announcement of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Thursday, Jan. 12, after hours. This data is closely followed by economists, traders and the Federal Reserve to assess the state of inflation, which could impact market sentiment.

隨著 1 月底的臨近，與比特幣價格相關的幾個關鍵日期需要關注，包括 1 月 12 日星期四盤後公佈的美國消費者物價指數 (CPI)。經濟學家、交易員和聯準會密切關注該數據，以評估通膨狀況，這可能會影響市場情緒。

Later in the month, the Federal Reserve is set to announce its decision on interest rates, which will undoubtedly shape Bitcoin's path further. Tighter prices on interest rates often lead to a shift in capital away from riskier assets, such as cryptocurrencies.

本月晚些時候，聯準會將宣布利率決定，這無疑將進一步影響比特幣的趨勢。利率價格收緊通常會導致資本從加密貨幣等風險較高的資產轉移。

However, the narrative could change if the CPI report shows higher-than-expected inflation, presenting a unique opportunity for Bitcoin to shine as an inflation hedge. As a result, investors are keeping a watchful eye on these upcoming events and their potential to influence Bitcoin's price trajectory.

然而，如果消費者物價指數報告顯示通膨高於預期，這種說法可能會改變，這為比特幣作為通膨對沖工具提供了一個獨特的機會。因此，投資者正在密切關注這些即將發生的事件及其影響比特幣價格軌蹟的潛力。

Despite the volatility in the short term, several crypto enthusiasts remain optimistic about the long-term prospects. Projections from VanEck and Bitwise suggest that Bitcoin could experience a surge to $180,000 to $200,000 by the end of 2025.

儘管短期內存在波動，但一些加密貨幣愛好者仍然對長期前景持樂觀態度。 VanEck 和 Bitwise 的預測表明，到 2025 年底，比特幣的價格可能會飆升至 18 萬美元至 20 萬美元。

Key drivers for this bullish outlook include increasing institutional adoption, limited supply and potential shifts in policy, such as the creation of a Bitcoin-reserve by the US, presenting an opportunity for opportunistic investment and long-term gains.

這種看漲前景的主要驅動因素包括機構採用率的提高、供應有限以及政策的潛在轉變，例如美國建立比特幣儲備，為機會主義投資和長期收益提供了機會。