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衡量美國國債預期波動性的 MOVE 指數飆升至 1 月以來的最高水平,暗示未來金融狀況將趨緊。
Bitcoin (BTC) was trading listless between key averages early Tuesday amid elevated volatility in the U.S. bond market and sharp losses in Chinese stocks.
由於美國債券市場波動加劇和中國股市大幅下跌,比特幣(BTC)週二早些時候在關鍵平均線之間徘徊。
The leading cryptocurrency by market value was last changing hands above $62,000, with the Bollinger bandwidth falling to levels seen ahead of the mid-June downside price turbulence.
以市值計算領先的加密貨幣最後一次易手價格高於 62,000 美元,布林線頻寬降至 6 月中旬下行價格動盪之前的水平。
Bollinger bands are volatility bands placed two standard deviations above and below the 20-day simple moving average of the asset’s price. The bandwidth is calculated by dividing the spread between the volatility bands by the 20-period SMA. Rising bandwidth values indicate high volatility and falling values suggest otherwise. A volatility explosion often follows a prolonged period of low readings.
布林通道是位於資產價格 20 日簡單移動平均線上方和下方兩個標準差的波動帶。頻寬的計算方法是將波動率帶之間的價差除以 20 週期 SMA。頻寬值上升表示波動性較高,而頻寬值下降則表示波動性較高。波動性爆炸通常伴隨著長時間的低讀數。
The bitcoin market, however, showed no such signs at press time, with prices locked within a narrow range between the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) resistance at $63,550 and the 50-day SMA support at $60,819.
然而,截至發稿時,比特幣市場並沒有顯示出這樣的跡象,價格鎖定在200 日簡單移動平均線(SMA) 阻力位63,550 美元和50 日移動平均線支撐位60,819 美元之間的窄幅區間內。
The MOVE index, which measures expected volatility in U.S. Treasury notes, surged 24% Monday, reaching the highest since early January, TradingView showed.
TradingView顯示,衡量美國公債預期波動性的MOVE指數週一飆升24%,達到1月初以來的最高水準。
Increased volatility in the Treasury notes, which play a prominent role in global collateral and finance, often causes financial tightening and risk aversion. The situation benefits the U.S. dollar, potentially weighing over risk assets, like stocks and bitcoin.
在全球抵押品和金融中發揮重要作用的國債波動性加劇,往往會導致金融緊縮和風險規避。這種情況有利於美元,可能會對股票和比特幣等風險資產造成壓力。
The path of least resistance for the dollar index is on the higher side as the notion of an aggressively dovish Fed has faded. According to ING, the dollar index could rise to 103 by the end of the month. The index was steady at around 102.45 at press time.
隨著聯準會激進鴿派的觀念逐漸消退,美元指數阻力最小的路徑是走高。據ING稱,美元指數可能在月底升至103。截至發稿,該指數穩定在102.45附近。
Chinese stocks slide
中國股市下滑
China’s Shanghai Composite Index fell by 4.6%, ending a ten-day winning streak, likely due to disappointment over the government’s lack of fiscal stimulus.
中國上證綜合指數下跌 4.6%,結束了連續 10 天的上漲,這可能是由於對政府缺乏財政刺激措施的失望所致。
Beijing announced a slew of stimulus measures in late September, torching a sharp rally that supposedly sucked out capital from other Asian equity markets and bitcoin.
北京在 9 月底宣布了一系列刺激措施,引發了股市的大幅上漲,據稱這從其他亞洲股市和比特幣中吸走了資金。
As such, the renewed slump in Chinese stocks may reverse the money flow, supporting other regional indices and cryptocurrency prices.
因此,中國股市的再度暴跌可能會扭轉資金流向,從而支撐其他地區指數和加密貨幣價格。
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