分析師告訴 Benzinga，由於獲利回吐、衍生性商品數據和歷史趨勢，比特幣 (BTC) 難以突破 10 萬美元大關

根據 CoinGecko 的數據，比特幣目前交易價格為 94,870 美元，當日下跌 0.4%。

Bitcoin BTC/USD encountered resistance at the $100,000 level on Monday, pausing its recent rally. Several analysts shared their insights on the price movement and the factors impacting Bitcoin's next move.

比特幣 BTC/USD 週一在 10 萬美元水平遇到阻力，暫停了近期的漲勢。幾位分析師分享了他們對價格走勢以及影響比特幣下一步走勢的因素的見解。

Bitcoin is currently trading at $94,870, down 0.4% for the day, according to data from CoinGecko.

根據 CoinGecko 的數據，比特幣目前交易價格為 94,870 美元，當日下跌 0.4%。

Here's what analysts are saying about Bitcoin's struggle to cross the $100,000 mark.

以下是分析師對比特幣難以突破 10 萬美元大關的看法。

Consolidation Phase, Not Weakness

鞏固階段，而非疲軟階段

Avinash Shekhar, co-founder and CEO of Pi42, told Benzinga that Bitcoin's pullback from recent highs is part of a consolidation phase rather than a sign of weakness.

Pi42 聯合創始人兼執行長 Avinash Shekhar 告訴 Benzinga，比特幣從近期高點回落是盤整階段的一部分，而不是疲軟的跡象。

"Despite the pullback, demand in derivatives markets remains robust, with traders paying a 17% annualized premium for leveraged BTC positions," he said.

他表示：“儘管出現回調，衍生性商品市場的需求仍然強勁，交易者為槓桿 BTC 頭寸支付了 17% 的年化溢價。”

"The Bitcoin options markets also show confidence, as options are trading at an 8% discount, indicating reduced hedging demand. Funding rates for perpetual contracts also remain neutral at 1.4%, indicating a balanced leverage environment."

“比特幣期權市場也表現出信心，因為期權交易折扣為 8%，這表明對沖需求減少。永續合約的融資利率也保持在 1.4% 的中性水平，表明槓桿環境平衡。”

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另請閱讀：專家警告稱，槓桿式 MicroStrategy ETF 正在玩火

Profit-Taking, Resistance Levels

獲利了結、阻力位

James Toledano, COO of Unity Wallet, attributes Bitcoin's dip to profit-taking following its $25,000 surge in the past month.

Unity Wallet 營運長 James Toledano 將比特幣的下跌歸因於過去一個月飆升 25,000 美元後的獲利了結。

"The presence of put options between $98,000 and $99,000 has also created resistance levels," he said.

「98,000 美元至 99,000 美元之間看跌期權的存在也創造了阻力位，」他說。

"Profit-taking has likely exerted downward pressure on the price. However, it's crucial to note that Bitcoin's historical patterns show significant corrections after rapid ascents."

“獲利回吐可能對價格造成下行壓力。然而，值得注意的是，比特幣的歷史模式在快速上漲後出現了重大調整。”

Toledano adds that previous cycles, such as 2017 and 2021, saw Bitcoin's steep gains followed by sharp declines of up to 70%.

Toledano 補充說，先前的周期，例如 2017 年和 2021 年，比特幣經歷了急劇上漲，隨後又急劇下跌，跌幅高達 70%。

"While this doesn't guarantee an imminent correction, it does suggest that the market could be due for a pullback after such a rapid rally from recent lows."

“雖然這並不能保證即將出現回調，但它確實表明市場在從近期低點如此迅速反彈後可能會回調。”

Altcoin Season, Institutional Interest

山寨幣季節，機構興趣

Arthur Azizov, CEO of B2BINPAY, observed that Bitcoin has been trading within a tight range of $91,000 to $99,000, with the $100,000 mark acting as a psychological barrier.

B2BINPAY 執行長 Arthur Azizov 觀察到，比特幣一直在 91,000 美元至 99,000 美元的狹窄區間內交易，其中 100,000 美元大關是一個心理障礙。

"Interest in the market remains strong, driven by altcoin season and substantial inflows from institutional and retail investors," he said.

他表示：“在山寨幣季節以及機構和散戶投資者大量資金流入的推動下，市場興趣仍然強勁。”

"According to CoinMarketCap's Alt season Index, the market is in alt season territory, with a score of 83."

“根據 CoinMarketCap 的替代季節指數，市場處於替代季節區域，得分為 83。”

"We could see a potential pullback to $82,000, but overall, the market is still bullish."

“我們可能會看到潛在的回調至 82,000 美元，但總體而言，市場仍然看漲。”

Technical Analysis: Consolidation, Neutral Outlook

技術分析：盤整，展望中性

Technical analysts at Fairlead Strategies maintain a neutral short-term outlook for Bitcoin, based on indicators such as the daily MACD and DeMARK signals, which are pointing to consolidation.

Fairlead Strategies 的技術分析師根據每日 MACD 和 DeMARK 訊號等指標來維持比特幣的中性短期前景，這些指標表明比特幣將出現盤整。

"Initial support is now seen at $80,400 with the 100K round number acting as key resistance," they said.

他們表示：“目前初步支撐位為 80,400 美元，10 萬整數為關鍵阻力位。”

"Long-term momentum is still strong, supporting a bullish outlook beyond the current consolidation phase."

“長期勢頭仍然強勁，支持當前盤整階段後的看漲前景。”

"All signs hint at Bitcoin being in its consolidation phase rather than a weakness phase," Shekhar further said.

「所有跡像都表明比特幣正處於盤整階段，而不是疲軟階段，」謝卡爾進一步表示。

"Consolidation is a necessary part of any bull market and typically manifests as a period of sideways price movement or a range after a strong directional move."

“盤整是任何牛市的必要組成部分，通常表現為一段時期的價格橫向波動或強勁的方向性波動後的區間波動。”

"During consolidation periods, technical indicators such as the MACD and DeMARK often flatten out, indicating a period of indecision or digestion in the market structure."

“在盤整期間，MACD 和 DeMARK 等技術指標經常趨於平緩，表明市場結構處於猶豫不決或消化的時期。”

"Typically, consolidation periods are followed by a continuation of the primary trend, which in this case would be further upside price action."

“通常情況下，盤整期之後是主要趨勢的延續，在這種情況下，這將是進一步的上行價格走勢。”

Toledano adds that while corrections are common after rapid gains, they don't necessarily signal the end of Bitcoin's bull run.

托萊達諾補充說，雖然在快速上漲後出現調整很常見，但這並不一定意味著比特幣牛市的結束。

"It's important to remember that corrections are a natural part of any bull market and not necessarily a cause for concern unless they lead to a complete reversal of the recent gains," he said.

他表示：“重要的是要記住，調整是任何牛市的自然組成部分，並不一定會引起擔憂，除非它們導致近期漲幅完全逆轉。”

"If Bitcoin can continue to hold support at key levels like the 200-day moving average, the bull run could still continue despite any pullbacks."

“如果比特幣能夠繼續在 200 日移動均線等關鍵水平保持支撐，那麼儘管有任何回調，牛市仍可能繼續。”

Read Next: Image: Pixabay

繼續閱讀： 圖片：Pixabay