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加密貨幣市場分析公司 Kaiko Research 的新數據表明,交易者押注比特幣 (BTC) 10 月將會表現強勁。
Crypto market analytics firm Kaiko Research has published new data indicating that traders are making large bets on the possibility of a strong October for Bitcoin (BTC).
加密貨幣市場分析公司 Kaiko Research 發布的新數據表明,交易者正在對比特幣 (BTC) 10 月強勁表現的可能性進行大量押注。
According to a new report by Kaiko, derivatives traders are betting hundreds of millions of dollars on crypto options exchange Deribit that Bitcoin will reach the $70,000 range again this month.
根據 Kaiko 的一份新報告,衍生性商品交易商在加密選擇交易所 Deribit 上押注了數億美元,認為比特幣本月將再次達到 7 萬美元的區間。
“Options volumes have increased over the last few weeks as markets shift to a risk-on mentality. Traders are preparing to take advantage of favorable price movements, especially in light of the fact that October has historically been BTC’s best trading month. Since 2013, BTC’s price has only decreased twice in October.
「隨著市場轉向冒險心態,過去幾週期權交易量有所增加。交易者正準備利用有利的價格走勢,特別是考慮到 10 月曆來是 BTC 最好的交易月份。自2013年以來,BTC價格僅在10月下跌過兩次。
When examining the three expiries in October, we observe that the majority of the volume is concentrated on BTC options expiring at the month's conclusion. Typically, the front-month contracts would have greater volume and liquidity.”
在檢查 10 月的三個到期日時,我們發現大部分交易量集中在當月結束時到期的 BTC 選擇權。通常情況下,近月合約的交易量和流動性都會更大。
Kaiko also highlights that recent macroeconomic developments are influencing the traders’ actions.
Kaiko 也強調,最近的宏觀經濟發展正在影響交易者的行為。
“However, several aspects distinguish this year. First, the US central bank initiated a rate-cutting cycle this month, altering its monetary policy. The massive rate cut by the Fed has already increased risk-on sentiment. The central bank has indicated two more cuts before the year's end, prompting speculative trades on December 27 contracts with substantial volume on strike prices over $100,000.
「然而,今年有幾個方面有所不同。首先,聯準會本月啟動降息週期,改變貨幣政策。聯準會大幅降息已經加劇了風險偏好情緒。央行已表示年底前將再降息兩次,這引發了 12 月 27 日合約的投機交易,成交量巨大,執行價格超過 10 萬美元。
The markets have yet to feel the full impact of cheaper dollars and the eventual easing of the Fed's quantitative tightening measures, which drained liquidity. Global liquidity follows the markets, thus the effects of the Fed's easing cycle will take longer to manifest.”
市場尚未感受到美元貶值以及聯準會量化緊縮措施最終放鬆的全面影響,這些措施耗盡了流動性。全球流動性追隨市場,因此聯準會寬鬆週期的效果將需要更長的時間才能顯現。
Bitcoin is currently trading at $61,026, down 3.9% over the last 24 hours.
比特幣目前交易價格為 61,026 美元,過去 24 小時下跌 3.9%。
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