比特幣（BTC）聖誕老人集會未能實現，短期持有者質疑復甦前景

12 月 25 日，比特幣 (BTC) 的價格試圖重回 10 萬美元的里程碑，暗示可能會出現「聖誕老人集會」。然而漲勢卻出現了動搖

Bitcoin (BTC) price hinted at a potential “Santa Rally” on December 25 as it made an attempt to reclaim the $100,000 price milestone. However, the rally faltered, falling short of the target. This Bitcoin failed rebound has left short-term holders questioning the likelihood of a recovery in the near term.

比特幣 (BTC) 的價格暗示 12 月 25 日可能會出現“聖誕老人集會”，因為它試圖奪回 10 萬美元的價格里程碑。然而，漲勢卻步履蹣跚，未能達到目標。比特幣的反彈失敗讓短期持有者質疑近期復甦的可能性。

Will the cryptocurrency’s price continue to trade below six figures?

加密貨幣的價格會繼續低於六位數嗎？

Sentiment Around Bitcoin Is Bearish

圍繞比特幣的情緒看跌

Bitcoin’s failure to rebound to $100,000 pushed its price below $97,000 and negatively affected its market dominance. But the bearish sentiment doesn’t stop there.

比特幣未能反彈至 10 萬美元，使其價格跌破 97,000 美元，對其市場主導地位產生了負面影響。但看跌情緒不止於此。

According to IntoTheBlock, the Addresses by Time Held indicator, which tracks activity among Bitcoin holders who retain the cryptocurrency between 30 and 365 days, has shown a notable decrease over the last week.

根據 IntoTheBlock 的數據，按持有時間劃分的地址指標（該指標追蹤持有加密貨幣 30 至 365 天內的比特幣持有者的活動）在上週顯示出顯著下降。

This group, often referred to as short-term holders, plays a critical role in reflecting market sentiment. An increase in this cohort typically signals growing optimism, but the recent decline suggests waning confidence among these investors.

該群體通常被稱為短期持有者，在反映市場情緒方面發揮關鍵作用。這一群體的增加通常標誌著樂觀情緒的增強，但最近的下降表明這些投資者的信心正在減弱。

If this trend persists, it could point to continued downward pressure on Bitcoin’s value in the near term.

如果這種趨勢持續下去，可能表示比特幣價值在短期內將面臨持續下行壓力。

Another indicator that reinforces this sentiment is the Short-Term Holder- Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (STH-NUPL). The STH-NUPL measures the behavior of investors who have held a coin for less than 155 days.

強化這種情緒的另一個指標是短期持有者-未達到淨損益（STH-NUPL）。 STH-NUPL 衡量持有代幣少於 155 天的投資者的行為。

With this data, one can tell if Bitcoin short-term holders are optimistic, fearful, or greedy. According to Glassnode, the metric has dropped to the hope or fear zone (orange), indicating that investors are skeptical about a significant BTC rebound. Should this remain the same, BTC might struggle to attract sufficient demand to drive the price higher.

透過這些數據，我們可以判斷比特幣短期持有者是樂觀、恐懼還是貪婪。據 Glassnode 稱，該指標已降至希望或恐懼區域（橙色），表明投資者對 BTC 大幅反彈持懷疑態度。如果這種情況保持不變，比特幣可能難以吸引足夠的需求來推高價格。

BTC Price Prediction: Sub-$90,000 Levels Next?

BTC 價格預測：下一步將低於 90,000 美元？

On the daily chart, Bitcoin’s price faced resistance at $99,332. This roadblock was one reason the cryptocurrency failed to rally toward $108,398. With this pushback, it is likely that the Bitcoin failed rebound might continue in the short term.

日線圖上，比特幣價格在 99,332 美元處面臨阻力。這項障礙是加密貨幣未能反彈至 108,398 美元的原因之一。在這種阻力下，比特幣的失敗反彈可能會在短期內持續。

Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped below the 50.00 neutral point. This drop indicates that momentum around BTC has turned bearish. If that remains the case, then the coin risks declining to $85,851.

此外，相對強弱指數 (RSI) 已跌破 50.00 中性點。這一下跌表明比特幣的勢頭已經轉為看跌。如果這種情況持續下去，那麼代幣就有可能跌至 85,851 美元。

However, if bulls help BTC break above the $99,332 resistance, the trend might change. In that scenario, Bitcoin price might inch closer to $110,000.

然而，如果多頭幫助 BTC 突破 99,332 美元的阻力位，趨勢可能會改變。在這種情況下，比特幣價格可能會接近 11 萬美元。