比特幣 (BTC) 類似於 2017 年多頭市場，可望創下歷史新高 (ATH)？

全球領先的加密貨幣比特幣（BTC）再次成為人們關注的焦點。其價格走勢類似 2017 年的反彈

Bitcoin (BTC) is once again stealing the show with its remarkable price movements. As the world’s leading cryptocurrency, every shift in BTC’s trajectory is closely monitored by the market, especially in relation to key levels and potential all-time highs (ATHs).

比特幣（BTC）以其顯著的價格走勢再次搶盡風頭。作為世界領先的加密貨幣，比特幣軌蹟的每一次變化都受到市場的密切關注，特別是與關鍵水平和潛在歷史高點（ATH）相關的變化。

Recent data reveals that Bitcoin’s market capitalization has experienced a 1.44% increase over the last 24 hours, reaching $1.88 trillion. Moreover, trading volumes have witnessed a substantial surge of 144.37%, indicating heightened activity in the market.

最新數據顯示，比特幣市值在過去 24 小時內成長了 1.44%，達到 1.88 兆美元。此外，交易量大幅成長144.37%，顯示市場活躍度有所提高。

Despite facing a price decline of around 6% over the past month, Bitcoin’s losses appear to be relatively modest compared to other assets in the market. This stability in losses suggests the potential for a rebound in BTC’s price.

儘管過去一個月價格下跌了約 6%，但與市場上的其他資產相比，比特幣的損失似乎相對較小。這種損失的穩定性顯示比特幣價格有反彈的潛力。

“Shrimps” Lead the Accumulation Effort

「蝦米」領跑囤貨

Delving deeper into Bitcoin’s price movements, we observe a significant role being played by small-scale holders, affectionately termed “shrimps” in the crypto community. These wallets, defined as those holding at least one BTC each, are continuously accumulating the cryptocurrency.

深入研究比特幣的價格走勢，我們發現小規模持有者（在加密社群中被親切地稱為「蝦」）發揮著重要作用。這些錢包被定義為每個至少持有 1 個比特幣的錢包，並且不斷累積加密貨幣。

According to data from Glassnode, shrimps are adding an average of 17,600 BTC to their holdings each month. This collective accumulation now amounts to 6.9% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply.

根據 Glassnode 的數據，蝦類每月平均增持 17,600 BTC。目前，這項集體累積相當於比特幣流通供應量的 6.9%。

This accumulation trend highlights the confidence smaller investors have in Bitcoin’s future prospects. Despite the asset’s price fluctuations, this group of holders continues to engage in a buy-and-hold strategy, contributing to a stable base of support for BTC.

這種累積趨勢凸顯了小投資者對比特幣未來前景的信心。儘管資產價格波動，這群持有者仍繼續採取買入並持有策略，為比特幣奠定了穩定的支撐基礎。

Parallels with the 2017 Bull Run, but History Doesn’t Repeat

與 2017 年多頭相似，但歷史不會重演

Bitcoin’s current price movements are also being compared to its post-halving rally in 2017. Halving events, which reduce the rewards that miners earn for processing transactions, inherently tighten Bitcoin’s supply and have often preceded significant price surges.

比特幣目前的價格走勢也與2017 年減半後的上漲進行了比較。 。

Recent analysis has shown that BTC’s trajectory is closely mirroring the 2017 cycle. If this pattern continues to hold, Bitcoin could potentially surpass its previous ATH and set new records.

最近的分析表明，BTC 的走勢與 2017 年的週期密切相關。如果這種模式持續下去，比特幣可能會超越先前的 ATH 並創下新紀錄。

However, it’s crucial to note that while historical patterns can provide valuable insights, they are not guaranteed predictors of future events. The market has evolved considerably since 2017, with increased institutional involvement, regulatory oversight, and global macroeconomic influences playing a larger role.

然而，值得注意的是，雖然歷史模式可以提供有價值的見解，但它們並不能保證預測未來事件。自 2017 年以來，市場發生了很大變化，機構參與、監管監督的增加以及全球宏觀經濟影響發揮了更大的作用。

Long-Term Holders Show Strong Confidence

長期持有者表現出堅定的信心

Adding to the bullish narrative for Bitcoin is the behavior of long-term holders (LTHs). Crypto Quant’s Binary Coin Days Destroyed (Binary CDD) metric provides a glimpse into the holding patterns of these investors, and the recent readings suggest that LTHs are maintaining their positions rather than selling.

長期持有者（LTH）的行為加劇了比特幣的看漲情緒。 Crypto Quant 的二元幣銷毀天數 (Binary CDD) 指標讓我們可以一窺這些投資者的持有模式，最近的讀數表明 LTH 正在維持其頭寸而不是出售。

A Binary CDD reading of zero indicates that LTHs are holding onto their Bitcoin with strong conviction, resisting the urge to liquidate even during periods of market volatility. This behavior is often seen as a precursor to bullish trends, as it signifies faith in Bitcoin’s long-term potential.

二元 CDD 讀數為零表明 LTH 堅定地持有比特幣，即使在市場波動期間也抵制清算的衝動。這種行為通常被視為看漲趨勢的前兆，因為它顯示了對比特幣長期潛力的信心。

Derivatives Market Signals Positive Sentiment

衍生性商品市場發出正面情緒訊號

Shifting our attention to the derivatives market, we find further indications of optimism. Bitcoin’s funding rate, a key metric in perpetual futures, has recently turned positive and reached its highest level in over a week, climbing from 0.00393 on January 10 to 0.0124.

將我們的注意力轉向衍生性商品市場，我們發現了進一步的樂觀跡象。比特幣的資金費率是永續合約的關鍵指標，最近已轉正，並達到一周多來的最高水平，從 1 月 10 日的 0.00393 攀升至 0.0124。

This uptick in funding rates suggests that traders are increasingly taking long positions, betting on further price increases. Such sentiment in the derivatives market often aligns with broader bullish momentum.

融資利率的上升表明交易者越來越多地持有多頭頭寸，押注價格進一步上漲。衍生性商品市場的這種情緒往往與更廣泛的看漲勢頭一致。

The current alignment of on-chain metrics, historical patterns, and market sentiment presents a compelling case for Bitcoin’s upward trajectory. Accumulation by shrimps, the confidence of long-term holders, and positive trends in the derivatives market all point to a favorable environment for growth.

當前鏈上指標、歷史模式和市場情緒的一致性為比特幣的上升軌跡提供了令人信服的案例。蝦類的累積、長期持有者的信心以及衍生性商品市場的正面趨勢都預示著有利的成長環境。

However, challenges remain on the horizon. Macroeconomic factors, regulatory changes, and market-wide sentiment will play crucial roles in determining Bitcoin’s next moves and whether it can follow the path laid out by its 2017 rally, potentially reaching a new ATH.

然而，挑戰仍然存在。宏觀經濟因素、監管變化和整個市場情緒將在決定比特幣的下一步走勢以及比特幣能否遵循 2017 年上漲所設定的路徑，並有可能達到新的 ATH 方面發揮至關重要的作用。