比特幣 (BTC) 價格預測：九月通常會很瘋狂——本月會發生什麼

九月對比特幣來說通常是一段瘋狂的旅程。自 2013 年以來，這個月在交易者中贏得了“Rektember”的綽號。為什麼？平均而言，9月份比特幣的回報率為-4.78%。

September is here, and it brings with it a unique set of challenges and opportunities in the world of Bitcoin. Here's a closer look at some of the key trends and data points to watch this month:

九月已經到來，它為比特幣世界帶來了一系列獨特的挑戰和機會。以下是本月值得關注的一些主要趨勢和數據點的詳細分析：

1. September Blues: Historically, September has not been kind to Bitcoin. Since 2013, this month has earned the nickname "Rektember" among traders due to its poor performance. On average, Bitcoin's return in September is a negative 4.78%. And it gets worse: there's usually a peak-to-trough drop of around 24.6%.

1. 九月憂鬱：從歷史上看，九月對比特幣來說並不好。自2013年以來，由於表現不佳，這個月在交易者中贏得了“Rektember”的綽號。平均來看，9月比特幣的報酬率為負4.78%。而且情況會變得更糟：從峰谷到谷底的跌幅通常約為 24.6%。

2. Cashing Out Profits: In August, traders cashed out around $4.251 billion in profits from their Bitcoin trades. That's a big chunk of change, and it's putting some selling pressure on the cryptocurrency.

2.套現利潤：8月份，交易者從比特幣交易中套現了約42.51億美元的利潤。這是一個很大的變化，它給加密貨幣帶來了一些拋售壓力。

3. Whales Holding Back: One interesting trend is the drop in big-money moves. Transactions over $100,000—typically involving whales—are at their lowest in nearly four years. Usually, when the whales are quiet, it means they're holding onto their Bitcoin, possibly expecting the price to go up. Less whale activity can sometimes mean less volatility.

3.鯨魚的退縮：一個有趣的趨勢是大筆資金流動的減少。超過 10 萬美元的交易（通常涉及鯨魚）處於近四年來的最低水平。通常，當鯨魚安靜時，這意味著他們正在持有比特幣，可能會預期價格會上漲。鯨魚活動減少有時意味著波動性減少。

4. Bitcoin Might Be Undervalued: Looking at the MVRV, Bitcoin might be undervalued right now. On both 7-day and 30-day timeframes, the numbers tell us there's room for price growth if demand picks up.

4. 比特幣可能被低估：從 MVRV 來看，比特幣目前可能被低估。在 7 天和 30 天的時間範圍內，這些數字告訴我們，如果需求回升，價格還有上漲的空間。

5. Analysts Predict a Drop: Not everyone is optimistic, though. Analysts from Bitfinex are throwing some cold water on any bullish dreams. They predict Bitcoin could fall to the $40,000 range this month if the Federal Reserve goes ahead with rate cuts. They're talking about a potential 15-20% drop from current levels. Historically, rate cuts have led to price dips before any recovery.

5. 分析師預測會下降：不過，並非所有人都樂觀。 Bitfinex 的分析師為任何看漲的夢想潑了一盆冷水。他們預測，如果聯準會繼續降息，比特幣本月可能會跌至 4 萬美元區間。他們正在談論可能比當前水平下降 15-20%。從歷史上看，降息會導致價格在復甦之前下跌。

6. Bitcoin Supply on Exchanges Drops: On the supply side, things are getting interesting. The amount of Bitcoin available on exchanges is now at its lowest level since December 2018.

6. 交易所的比特幣供應量下降：在供應方面，事情變得越來越有趣。交易所可用的比特幣數量目前處於 2018 年 12 月以來的最低水準。

7. Active Addresses Signal Bear Market: And then there's the metric of active addresses, which tells us how many wallets are currently in use. This number has dropped sharply, similar to what we saw in the 2017 and 2021 bear markets. But unlike those times, Bitcoin's price isn't crashing. Long-term holders are showing resilience, which could help support the price.

7. 活躍地址訊號熊市：然後是活躍地址的指標，它告訴我們目前有多少錢包正在使用。這個數字急劇下降，類似於我們在 2017 年和 2021 年熊市中看到的情況。但與那些時期不同的是，比特幣的價格並沒有暴跌。長期持有者表現出韌性，這可能有助於支撐價格。

8. Long-Term Holders Step Up: Speaking of long-term holders, they've been accumulating Bitcoin at a steady pace. According to CryptoQuant, these holders have increased their Bitcoin supply by 262,000 BTC over the past 30 days, bringing their total holdings to 14.82 million BTC. That's 75% of the total supply.

8.長期持有者的崛起：說到長期持有者，他們一直在穩步累積比特幣。根據 CryptoQuant 的數據，這些持有者在過去 30 天內增加了 262,000 BTC 的比特幣供應量，使其總持有量達到 1,482 萬 BTC。佔總供應量的 75%。

9. Top Bitcoin Wallets Remain Inactive: Finally, many top anonymous Bitcoin wallets, which hold large amounts of BTC, remain inactive. Seven of the top 10 wallets, holding a total of 237,816 BTC (worth about $14.04 billion), haven't moved in over two years.

9. 頂級比特幣錢包仍然不活躍：最後，許多持有大量比特幣的頂級匿名比特幣錢包仍然不活躍。排名前 10 名的錢包中有 7 個持有總計 237,816 BTC（價值約 140.4 億美元），但兩年多沒有搬遷。