比特幣（BTC）價格預測：社交情感差異提示積累階段，但波動性可能會增加

比特幣最近在104,000美元左右的價格行動創造了一個有趣的心理戰場，社交情緒指標揭示了複雜的市場動態。

Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent price movement around the $104,000 level has created an interesting psychological battleground. Social sentiment metrics reveal complex market dynamics at play.

比特幣（BTC）最近的價格變動在104,000美元左右，創造了一個有趣的心理戰場。社交情緒指標揭示了複雜的市場動態。

As the leading cryptocurrency trades at $104,250.29, at press time, down by 0.47% in the last 24 hours, underlying sentiment indicators suggest a notable shift in investor behavior.

隨著領先的加密貨幣交易的交易價格為104,250.29美元，在發稿時，在過去的24小時內下降了0.47％，基本的情感指標表明投資者行為發生了明顯變化。

Bitcoin’s social sentiment divergence

比特幣的社交情感分歧

One striking feature in the recent market data is the declining commentary around both greed and fear indicators.

在最近的市場數據中，一個引人注目的功能是圍繞貪婪和恐懼指標的評論下降。

Bitcoin maintained its position above the crucial Moving Averages (MA) Cross levels of 99,326.37 and 77,536.25. According to Santiment data, Social Volume mentions in the $90K-$95K and $110K-$115K ranges have decreased significantly.

比特幣在關鍵移動平均水平（MA）交叉水平（99,326.37和77,536.25）上保持其位置。根據Santiment的數據，社交數量的$ 95K- $ 95K和11萬美元的$ 115K範圍已大大減少。

This indicates a possible accumulation phase as traders adopt a wait-and-watch approach.

這表明隨著交易者採用等待觀察方法，可能會有一個可能的積累階段。

An interesting pattern emerges on the 19th of January, where increased social greed coincided with an immediate price decline.

1月19日出現了一個有趣的模式，社會貪婪的增加與立即的價格下降相吻合。

This inverse correlation between sentiment and price action has been consistent throughout the analyzed period, with similar instances recorded on the 4th of December and the 16th of December 2024.

在整個分析期間，情緒與價格行動之間的這種反相關性一直保持一致，並在12月4日和2024年12月16日記錄了類似的情況。

MVRV ratio provides further perspective

MVRV比率提供了進一步的觀點

The 30-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has entered a critical zone, suggesting potential price vulnerability.

30天的市場價值（MVRV）比率進入了一個關鍵區域，這表明潛在的價格脆弱性。

The metric currently shows a declining trend after reaching elevated levels, historically an indication of local price tops.

該指標目前顯示出升高水平後的趨勢下降，這在歷史上表明當地價格高高。

When combined with the current social sentiment, this technical indicator paints a picture of cautious optimism among long-term holders.

當與當前的社交情緒結合使用時，該技術指標描繪了長期持有人謹慎樂觀的圖片。

Bitcoin technical structure and volume analysis

比特幣技術結構和音量分析

The daily chart reveals a strong underlying technical structure, with Bitcoin maintaining its position above both key Moving Averages.

每日圖表揭示了強大的潛在技術結構，比特幣在兩個關鍵移動平均值上保持其位置。

At the time of writing, Trading Volume stood at 1.74K BTC, showing moderate activity, while the RSI reading of 57.52 indicated balanced momentum, neither overbought nor oversold.

在撰寫本文時，交易量為1.74K BTC，顯示出適度的活動，而RSI的讀數為57.52表示平衡的勢頭，既不是過分，也不超越。

Sentiment Cycles and price action

情感週期和價格行動

The analysis of social sentiment data reveals five distinct cycles since November 2024, where extreme sentiment readings preceded significant price movements in the opposite direction.

對社會情感數據的分析揭示了自2024年11月以來的五個不同的周期，那裡的極端情感讀數在相反方向上的大量價格變動之前。

The current cycle shows declining social engagement despite price stability, a phenomenon typically associated with accumulation phases in previous market cycles.

當前的周期表明，儘管價格穩定性，社會參與度的下降，這一現象通常與以前的市場週期中的積累階段有關。

Our analysis suggests that Bitcoin’s broader uptrend could continue, driven by declining social commentary, a moderating MVRV ratio, and stable price action above key MA.

我們的分析表明，在社會評論下降，MVRV比率下降以及高於關鍵MA以上的穩定價格行動的推動下，比特幣的更廣泛上升趨勢可能會繼續下去。

However, increased volatility is likely in the near term. The reduced social engagement, especially in price target discussions, indicates a maturing market phase where institutional flows may now have greater influence than retail sentiment.

但是，在短期內可能會增加波動率。減少的社會參與，尤其是在價格目標討論中，這表明了一個成熟的市場階段，即機構流量現在可能比零售情緒更大的影響力。

Institutions might be quietly accumulating BTC

機構可能正在悄悄地積累BTC

While sentiment metrics provide valuable insights, traders should note that they should be considered in conjunction with traditional technical analysis and fundamental factors.

儘管情感指標提供了寶貴的見解，但交易者應注意，應將其與傳統的技術分析和基本因素一起考慮。

The current market structure remains constructive above the 50-day MA at 99,326.37. However, the declining social engagement suggests possible range-bound action for Bitcoin before the next significant directional move.

當前的市場結構在50天的MA以上保持了99,326.37的建設性。但是，社會參與的下降表明，在下一個重大的方向性移動之前，比特幣可能有可能存在範圍的行動。