分析師：比特幣 (BTC) 價格預計在 11 月暴漲 50%，達到 2.4 萬美元

從純粹的季節性角度來看，比特幣 (BTC) 價格將在 11 月上漲。 11 月曆來是比特幣表現最好的月份。

1/ Positive Seasonality.

1/ 積極的季節性。

Bitcoin was poised to go up in November from a pure seasonality perspective. November has historically been the best performance month for Bitcoin. Q4 is generally a very good quarter for Bitcoin.

從純粹的季節性角度來看，比特幣預計在 11 月上漲。 11 月曆來是比特幣表現最好的月份。對於比特幣來說，第四季總體來說是一個非常好的季度。

2/ US elections.

2/ 美國大選。

Although there were clearly nuances between both Harris and Trump, bitcoin would probably have rallied regardless of the election outcome based on past US election cycles. That being said, the decline in US regulatory uncertainty, pro-crypto US balance of power, and the BTC strategic reserve narrative are all going to accelerate the mainstream adoption of Bitcoin & crypto assets going forward.

儘管哈里斯和川普之間存在明顯的細微差別，但根據過去的美國選舉週期，無論選舉結果如何，比特幣都可能會上漲。話雖如此，美國監管不確定性的下降、支持加密貨幣的美國權力平衡以及比特幣戰略儲備的敘述都將加速比特幣和加密資產的主流採用。

3/ The supply shock is here and it’s real. There is increasing evidence that the BTC supply shock has really been intensifying lately. For instance, measures of liquid + highly liquid BTC supply provided by @glassnode have reached a new year-to-low while measures of illiquid supply have reached a new all-time high. In other words, there have never been more bitcoins deemed as “illiquid”.

3/ 供應衝擊已經到來，而且是真實存在的。越來越多的證據表明，比特幣供應衝擊最近確實在加劇。例如，@glassnode 提供的流動性+高流動性 BTC 供應量指標已創今年新低，而非流動性供應量指標則創歷史新高。換句話說，被視為「非流動性」的比特幣數量從未如此多。

4/ US spot Bitcoin ETF demand is exacerbating the supply shock. The supply shock emanating from the Halving is even exacerbated by the demand overhang coming from US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Since trading launch in Jan 2024, net flows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs have been 2.5 x higher than the rate of BTC production in the same period. This factor has recently even increased. Over the past 5 trading days, ETF demand has outsized supply by a factor of 12.3 x.

4/ 美國現貨比特幣 ETF 需求正在加劇供應衝擊。美國現貨比特幣 ETF 的需求過剩甚至加劇了減半帶來的供應衝擊。自 2024 年 1 月推出交易以來，美國現貨比特幣 ETF 的淨流入量比同期 BTC 產量高出 2.5 倍。這個因素最近甚至有所增加。在過去 5 個交易日中，ETF 需求量超出供應量 12.3 倍。

5/ Risk of a temporary pull-back due to high sentiment = could create an attractive entry point. To be honest, many institutional investors in Europe have been surprised by the very positive reaction of cryptoassets to the US election outcome. What is more is that a large part still remains underexposed but increasingly wants to gain exposure. The truth is that there is a heightened risk for a temporary pull back as our Cryptoasset Sentiment Index has recently reached to a 3-year high signalling euphoric sentiment & skewed one-sided positioning already. However, a temporary pull-back should be used to increase or gain exposure in what will most-likely be the main part of the bull market.

5/ 因情緒高漲而暫時回調的風險 = 可能會創造一個有吸引力的切入點。老實說，歐洲的許多機構投資者對加密資產對美國大選結果的非常積極的反應感到驚訝。更重要的是，很大一部分人仍然曝光不足，但越來越希望獲得曝光。事實是，由於我們的加密資產情緒指數最近達到了 3 年來的高點，表明樂觀情緒和偏向一邊的部位已經存在，因此暫時回調的風險更大。然而，應該利用暫時的回調來增加或獲得最有可能成為牛市主要部分的風險敞口。