比特幣（BTC）期權市場表明，到3月28日，價格的可能性為22％，至75,000美元

概率的急劇上升是在美國與其頂級貿易夥伴之間的重新進口關稅戰爭之後。

Bitcoin (BTC) options traders are pricing in a 22% probability of the cryptocurrency falling to $75,000 by March 28, according to data from Derive.xyz. This marks a significant increase from last week, when the probability was pegged at 10%.

根據derive.xyz的數據，到3月28日，比特幣（BTC）期權交易者的定價可能是22％的加密貨幣降至75,000美元的概率。這與上週的概率為10％相比，這顯著增加。

The Derive.xyz platform allows users to trade standardized call and put options on BTC, ETH, SOL and DOT, and to create custom options. Derive’s on-chain options market is used to gauge professional traders’ short-term directional preferences.

derive.xyz平台允許用戶在BTC，ETH，SOL和DOT上交易標準化的呼叫，並將選項放置，並創建自定義選項。 DERIVE的鏈上選擇市場用於評估專業交易員的短期方向偏好。

The latest data point follows a renewed import tariff war between the U.S. and its top trading partners, including Canada, Mexico and China. The tariffs are expected to contribute to inflation in the global economy, making it harder for central banks like the Fed to cut interest rates.

最新的數據點是在美國與其頂級貿易夥伴之間的重新進口關稅戰爭之後，包括加拿大，墨西哥和中國。預計關稅將導致全球經濟的通貨膨脹率，這使得像美聯儲這樣的中央銀行降低利率變得更加困難。

“The recent tariffs imposed by Trump, including 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada and 10% on Chinese goods, are likely to lead to increased inflation, which could dampen investor sentiment in crypto markets,” Derive said in an email to CoinDesk.

“特朗普最近對墨西哥和加拿大進口的25％徵收的關稅和中國商品的10％可能會導致通貨膨脹率增加，這可能會削弱加密貨幣市場的投資者情緒。”

Andre Dragosch, head of Europe at Bitwise, said on X that tariffs are sending shock waves via USD strength and contraction in global money supply.

Bitwise的歐洲負責人安德烈·德拉格斯（Andre Dragosch）在X上表示，關稅正在通過全球貨幣供應中的美元實力和收縮發出衝擊波。

Bitcoin has already dropped 11% to $93,700 in four days, according to CoinDesk data. ETH, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market value, fell below $2,200 early Monday, marking its lowest since Aug. 5.

根據Coindesk的數據，比特幣在四天內已經下跌了11％至93,700美元。 ETH是按市場價值計算的第二大加密貨幣，週一早些時候下跌低於2,200美元，標誌著8月5日以來的最低水平。

BTC appears set to complete a double top reversal pattern, which could open the doors for a drop to $75,000. Recently, Arthur Hayes, chief investment officer of Maelstrom and former BitMEX CEO, said that BTC will first drop to around $75,000 before chalking out a bigger bull run.

BTC似乎準備完成雙頂逆轉模式，該模式可能會以75,000美元的價格打開門。最近，Maelstrom的首席投資官，前Bitmex首席執行官Arthur Hayes表示，BTC將首先跌至75,000美元左右，然後再進行更大的公牛運行。

Meanwhile, the broader outlook appears constructive, according to Derive.

同時，根據派生，更廣泛的前景似乎是建設性的。

“We’re seeing a number of active spot ETF filings for assets like DOGE, SOL, XRP, and LTC from major players like Bitwise and Grayscale. If the SEC approves these, it will signal greater legitimacy for the digital asset industry and trigger more capital inflows, potentially driving prices upward,” Derive told CoinDesk, highlighting the momentum for creating strategic BTC reserves in several U.S. states.

“我們從Bitwise和Grayscale等主要參與者中看到了多個Doge，Sol，XRP和LTC等資產的活動ETF文件。如果SEC批准了這些，它將標誌著數字資產行業的更大合法性，並引發更多的資本流入，可能會向上推動價格。

Dragosch expects the Fed to step in eventually, putting a floor under asset prices.

Dragosch預計美聯儲最終將介入，將地板放在資產價格下。

“At some point, Fed will need to reignite QE to curb the Dollar from rising further and to stop a continued tightening in financial conditions & deceleration in global growth,” Bitwise’s Dragosch added.

Bitwise的Dragosch補充說：“在某個時候，美聯儲需要重新點燃量化寬鬆，以遏制美元從進一步上升，並阻止全球增長的財務狀況和減速的繼續收緊。”