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在當前加密貨幣市場的背景下,比特幣已成功恢復短期持有者的成本基礎
Bitcoin (BTC) has managed to regain its cost basis for short-term holders, set at approximately $61.9k, and is approaching the 200-day moving average, which stands at $63.9k. This move has coincided with a 0.50% reduction in interest rates by the Federal Reserve, which has influenced risk perception and generated slight optimism among investors, according to the latest report from GlassNode.
比特幣 (BTC) 已成功恢復短期持有者的成本基礎,約為 61,900 美元,並且正在接近 200 日移動平均線,即 63,900 美元。 GlassNode 的最新報告顯示,此舉恰逢聯準會降息 0.50%,影響了風險認知,並引發了投資者的輕微樂觀情緒。
However, recent market history has been marked by a period of net capital outflows, indicating that pressure on short-term holders is easing as prices outstrip their acquisition costs. Although many of these new investors are facing unrealized losses, the magnitude of these losses is significantly smaller compared to the market declines seen in 2021 and during the COVID-19 crash in 2020. This context suggests that while there is a cautious sentiment, there is underlying confidence in Bitcoin’s (BTC) recovery potential.
然而,最近的市場歷史以一段時期的資本淨流出為標誌,這表明隨著價格超過其收購成本,短期持有者的壓力正在緩解。儘管許多新投資者面臨未實現的損失,但與2021 年和2020 年COVID-19 崩盤期間的市場下跌相比,這些損失的幅度要小得多。有人們對比特幣(BTC)的復甦潛力充滿信心。
Indeed, capital flow indicators have shown that, in times of market correction, short-term holders tend to liquidate their positions, leading to a revaluation of the young supply in relation to the spot price. The behavior of short-term holders is crucial to identifying market turning points. Pressure on this group has increased as unrealized losses mount, which may lead to a greater propensity to sell at a loss.
事實上,資本流動指標表明,在市場調整時期,短期持有者往往會清算其頭寸,導致年輕供應相對於現貨價格的重新估值。短期持有者的行為對於識別市場轉折點至關重要。隨著未實現損失的增加,這群人面臨的壓力也隨之增加,這可能會導致他們更傾向於虧本出售。
However, the recent trend shows that new investors are maintaining remarkable confidence, despite market conditions. This is reflected in the profitability ratios of their investments, which, although negative, have shown a lesser severity in their falls compared to previous episodes.
然而,最近的趨勢表明,儘管市場狀況不佳,新投資者仍然保持著顯著的信心。這反映在他們的投資盈利率上,儘管投資盈利率為負值,但與先前的情況相比,其下降的嚴重程度要輕一些。
In addition, the perpetual futures market offers another layer of analysis regarding the confidence of new capital. With the funding ratio rising to 0.05%, a renewed interest by speculators in long positions is suggested. However, this figure remains moderate and does not reflect the strong overall demand seen in previous years.
此外,永續合約市場也為新資本的信心提供了另一層分析。隨著資金比率上升至0.05%,顯示投機者對多頭部位重新產生了興趣。然而,這個數字仍然溫和,並沒有反映出前幾年強勁的整體需求。
The Bitcoin market is in a prolonged consolidation phase reminiscent of the periods of 2019 and 2020. Although capital flows have decreased since the March ATH, the resilience of new investors is a positive aspect amid a challenging environment. With a slight recovery in futures markets and cautious position management, confidence could be the key factor that propels Bitcoin into a new growth cycle, leaving behind the pressure it has faced recently.
比特幣市場正處於長期盤整階段,讓人想起 2019 年和 2020 年時期。隨著期貨市場的小幅復甦和謹慎的部位管理,信心可能成為推動比特幣進入新增長週期的關鍵因素,擺脫近期面臨的壓力。
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