比特幣（BTC）市場懸掛在一個線程中，等待杰羅姆·鮑威爾的下一個決定

加密市場再次處於不確定性狀態，掛在一個問題上：美國美聯儲的下一個決定是什麼？

The crypto market is once again in a critical state of uncertainty,pivoting on a single point: the next decision of the U.S. Federal Reserve.

加密市場再次處於不確定性的臨界狀態，在一個點上旋轉：美國美聯儲的下一個決定。

As bitcoin hovers below $85,000 and the market’s fear and greed index collapses to 23, investors are holding their breath. The meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) concludes today, and all attention is now on Jerome Powell.

隨著比特幣徘徊在85,000美元以下，市場的恐懼和貪婪指數崩潰了23，投資者屏住了呼吸。聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）的會議今天結束，現在所有的關注都關注杰羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）。

Markets Under Pressure Await the Fed’s Verdict

在壓力下等待美聯儲的裁決

For several days, bitcoin and major cryptos have displayed increased volatility, signaling a rising nervousness.

幾天以來，比特幣和主要加密貨幣表現出增加的波動性，表明神經質上升。

This morning, bitcoin dropped below $83,000, before slightly rebounding to $83,450, while Ethereum, Solana, and XRP are juggling between small gains and losses.

今天早上，比特幣跌至83,000美元以下，然後略有反彈至83,450美元，而以太坊，索拉納和XRP在小額損失和損失之間雜耍。

Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research, sheds light on this dynamic, stating that:

Bitget Research的首席分析師Ryan Lee闡明了這種動態，並指出：

Bitcoin price dropped by 0.2% to trade around $83,000 on Wednesday, continuing a broader decline in the crypto market. Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin are also down, while gold price rose above $3,000 an ounce and markets awaited the FOMC decision on March 19, 2025. Although bitcoin has historically been correlated with gold as a macroeconomic hedge, their current divergence (bitcoin falling while gold rises) indicates that bitcoin is acting more like a risk asset, reacting to uncertainty over Fed monetary policy, crypto market profit-taking, and a corresponding market flow toward traditional safe havens. The outcome of the FOMC meeting could favor a rebound if the tone is flexible or intensify the correction if the position remains restrictive, with the short-term trend of bitcoin now being more closely linked to global economic signals than its role as digital gold.

比特幣的價格下跌了0.2％，週三的交易約為83,000美元，持續下降了加密貨幣市場。 Solana，XRP和Dogecoin也會下降，而黃金價格上漲了每盎司3,000美元以上，市場在2025年3月19日等待FOMC的決定。儘管比特幣歷史上與黃金相關，作為宏觀經濟的樹籬，其宏觀經濟對沖，但他們當前的差異（比特幣降落，而金色的興趣）表明比特幣的競爭更為不可思議的是，在不適合的情況下，不願意的是，在反應中，不願意在不適當的情況下進行了反應，而不是在反應上，而不是在反應中，而不是在反應中，而不是在反應上。獲利，並相應的市場流向傳統的避風港。如果基調靈活或加強校正，則FOMC會議的結果可能會有利於反彈，如果該職位保持限制，比特幣的短期趨勢現在與全球經濟信號更加緊密地聯繫在一起，而不是其作為數字黃金的角色。

The pivotal element that has investors on edge is the stance the Federal Reserve will take on interest rates.

擁有投資者在邊緣的關鍵要素是美聯儲將採取利率的立場。

Officially, the predictions are for rates to remain within the band of 4.25% to 4.5%. However, the key factor will be the tone of Jerome Powell’s speech.

正式地，這些預測是在4.25％至4.5％的頻段內保持費率。但是，關鍵因素將是杰羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）講話的語氣。

Three possible scenarios are being considered by investors:

投資者正在考慮三種可能的情況：

“We do not anticipate an immediate rate cut,” has already been stated by the Fed chairman in recent months. He highlights the persistence of inflation and the still fragile state of the economy.

美聯儲董事長最近幾個月已經說：“我們預計不會立即降低利率。​​”他強調了通貨膨脹的持久性和經濟中仍然脆弱的狀態。

Yet, even a slight variation in his tone would be enough to trigger an immediate reaction in the markets.

然而，即使他的語氣略有差異也足以引發市場上的立即反應。

Investors are scanning every hint for a sign of a shift in the Fed’s course.

投資者正在掃描所有提示，以表明美聯儲課程發生變化。

A Crypto Market at a Crossroads

十字路口的加密市場

If the Fed maintains a hard and restrictive position, the market could face another downturn, as investors would then be turning towards safer investments like bonds.

如果美聯儲保持艱難而限制性的立場，那麼市場將面臨另一個低迷，因為投資者將轉向諸如債券之類的更安全的投資。

Many analysts are fearing a tightening of liquidity, which would particularly impact risk assets like bitcoin.

許多分析師擔心流動性的收緊，這會特別影響像比特幣這樣的風險資產。

“Financial flows are beginning to shift towards European and Asian markets,” notes a report by QCP Capital, suggesting a movement of capital away from U.S. tech stocks and cryptocurrencies.

QCP Capital的一份報告指出，“金融流量開始轉向歐洲和亞洲市場，”這表明資本從美國科技股和加密貨幣移動而來。

Conversely, if Powell hints at a possibility of monetary easing sooner than anticipated, the crypto market could react swiftly with a spectacular rebound.

相反，如果鮑威爾暗示可能比預期的更快的貨幣寬鬆，那麼加密貨幣市場可能會以壯觀的反彈做出反應。

The recent drop in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) from 3.1% to 2.8% could serve as an argument for an upcoming easing. If the Fed hints that rate cuts might start before mid-2025, bitcoin and altcoins would stand to benefit directly, which would in turn attract investors seeking high returns.

最近，消費者價格指數（CPI）從3.1％下降到2.8％，可以作為即將緩解的論點。如果美聯儲暗示削減稅率可能在2025年中期之前開始，那麼比特幣和山寨幣將直接受益，這反過來又吸引了尋求高回報的投資者。

The coming hours will be decisive as Jerome Powell’s speech will condition the market movements, and the magnitudes of the reactions could be significant. A conciliatory approach would open the door for a new bullish dynamic and strengthen interest in cryptocurrencies as a safe haven in anticipation of an economic stimulus. Conversely, a hard and unyielding line could mark the beginning of a new correction phase, testing the markets’ resilience against an inflexible monetary policy.

接下來的幾個小時將是決定性的，因為杰羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）的講話將使市場變動調節，並且反應的幅度可能很大。一種和解的方法將為新看漲的動態打開大門，並加強對加密貨幣作為預期經濟刺激的避風港的興趣。相反，一條艱苦而堅定的線可以標誌著新的更正階段的開始，測試了市場對不靈活的貨幣政策的韌性。

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Diplômé de Sciences Po Toulouse et titulaire d'une certification consultant blockchain délivrée par Alyra, j'ai rejoint l'aventure Cointribune en 2019. Convaincu du potentiel de la blockchain pour transformer de nombreux secteurs de l'économie, j'ai pris l'engagement de sensibiliser et d'informer le grand public sur cet écosystème en constante évolution. Mon objectif est de permettre à chacun de mieux comprendre la blockchain et de saisir les opportunités qu'elle offre. J'efforce chaque jour de fournir une analyse objective de l'actualité, de décrypter les tendances du marché, de relayer les dernières innovations technologiques et de mettre en perspective les enjeux économiques et sociétaux de cette révolution en marche.

我是Alyra發行的區塊鏈顧問認證的科學畢業生，我於2019年加入了Cointribuna冒險。我堅信區塊鏈有可能改變經濟的許多部門，我承諾提高認識，並向公眾提高人們對這個不斷發展的生態系統的認識。我的目標是讓每個人都能更好地了解區塊鏈並抓住他們提供的機會。我每天都在努力對新聞進行客觀的分析，破譯市場趨勢，傳達最新的技術創新，並將其視為正在進行的革命的經濟和社會問題。