比特幣（BTC）最近以76,700美元的價格達到了四個月的低點，同時下降了6％的標準普爾500指數

隨著市場參與者對全球經濟放緩的概率提高的反應，這種股票市場的校正已將指數推向了六個月來的最低點。

Bitcoin (BTC) recently hit a four-month low of $76,700, coinciding with a substantial 6% decline in the S&P 500 index. This stock market correction has pushed the index to its lowest point in six months, as market participants react to heightened probabilities of a global economic slowdown.

比特幣（BTC）最近在4個月的76,700美元中達到了四個月的低點，同時達到了標準普爾500指數下降6％。隨著市場參與者對全球經濟放緩的概率提高的反應，這種股票市場的校正已將指數推向了六個月來的最低點。

However, despite Bitcoin’s sharp 30% retracement from its all-time peak of $109,350, a set of indicators suggests that the negative price trend may be approaching its conclusion.

但是，儘管比特幣從歷史上的109,350美元的峰值提出了30％的重新回撤，但一組指標表明，負價格趨勢可能正在接近其結論。

Nonetheless, analysts remain divided on whether Bitcoin has entered a bear market.

儘管如此，分析師在比特幣是否進入熊市方面仍然存在分歧。

Current price movements starkly contrast with the dramatic plunge seen in November 2021, which began with a 41% crash from $69,000 to $40,560 in just 60 days. If a similar pattern were to unfold today, it would imply a drop to around $64,400 by the end of March.

目前的價格變動與2021年11月的戲劇性暴跌形成鮮明對比，該暴跌最初從60天內從69,000美元墜毀至40,560美元。如果今天要出現類似的模式，那就意味著到3月底跌至64,400美元左右。

The present correction draws parallels to the 31.5% decrease from $71,940 on June 7, 2024, down to $49,220 over a two-month period.

目前的更正使相似之處從2024年6月7日的71,940美元下降到31.5％，在兩個月內降至49,220美元。

During the late 2021 bear market, the U.S. dollar gained strength against a basket of currencies, as evidenced by the DXY index rising from 92.4 in September to 96.0 by December. However, the DXY began 2025 at 109.2 but has since decreased to 104, revealing a potential inverse relationship between the dollar and Bitcoin. This scenario generally positions Bitcoin as a risk-on asset, rather than a safe-haven in times of dollar weakness.

在2021年末熊市中，美元兌換貨幣獲得了實力，這證明了DXY指數從9月92.4日到12月的96.0。但是，DXY於2025年開始時為109.2，但此後已減少到104，揭示了美元和比特幣之間的潛在關係。這種情況通常將比特幣定位為風險資產，而不是在美元弱點時避免使用。

Moreover, the current market conditions do not indicate a significant shift of investors toward cash positions, which bodes well for Bitcoin’s price stability.

此外，當前的市場狀況並沒有表明投資者向現金頭寸的重大轉變，這對於比特幣的價格穩定而言非常好。

In other news, the Bitcoin derivatives market displays stability, with the annualized premium on futures currently at 4.5%, even after a 19% price drop from March 2 to March 11. For context, on June 18, 2022, this premium fell below zero following a steep 44% decline from $31,350 to $17,585 over 12 days.

在其他新聞中，比特幣衍生產品市場顯示穩定性，即使在3月2日至3月11日的價格下跌19％之後，預期的年度溢價仍為4.5％。對於2022年6月18日的背景下，這種溢價在12天內從31,350美元下降到17,585美元，此次溢價下降了44％。

The Bitcoin perpetual futures funding rate is currently near zero, suggesting a balanced demand for both long and short positions. In bearish conditions, high demand for short positions typically drives the funding rate downward.

比特幣永久期貨融資率目前接近零，表明對長位置和短職位的需求平衡。在看跌條件下，對短職位的高需求通常會使資金率向下推動。

Market sentiment has waned for several publicly traded firms valued over $150 billion, including Tesla (-54%), Palantir (-40%), Nvidia (-34%), and others, leading to overall bearish sentiment as investors grow wary of an AI bubble and increasing recession risks.

市場情緒已經減少了幾家價值超過1,500億美元的上市公司，包括特斯拉（-54％），Palantir（-40％），NVIDIA（-34％）和其他公司，隨著投資者對AI Bubble和日益增加的衰退風險的持卡，投資者的總體看跌期權。

Concerns are also rising regarding a potential U.S. government shutdown on March 15, which necessitates lawmakers passing a bill to raise the debt ceiling. Yet, the Republican party is currently divided on the matter, presenting a challenge for consensus. If an agreement is reached, risk-on assets—including Bitcoin—may experience a positive price reaction.

人們對3月15日的美國政府可能關閉的可能性也引起了人們的關注，這使立法者必須通過一項法案來提高債務上限。然而，共和黨目前在此事上分歧，對共識提出了挑戰。如果達成協議，則風險支出資產（包括比特幣）可能會產生積極的價格反應。

Emerging signs of a real estate crisis could pave the way for capital to flow into alternative scarce assets like Bitcoin. Data from the U.S. National Association of Realtors as of February 27 reveals that home contract signings have plunged to an all-time low in January. Additionally, a February 23 piece in The Wall Street Journal disclosed that over 7% of Federal Housing Administration-insured loans are at least 90 days overdue, exceeding the peak observed during the 2008 subprime crisis.

房地產危機的新興跡象可能為資本帶入像比特幣這樣的替代稀缺資產鋪平道路。截至2月27日，美國全國房地產經紀人協會的數據表明，一月份的家庭合同簽署已跌至歷史最低點。此外，《華爾街日報》上的一篇2月23日的一篇文章透露，超過7％的聯邦住房管理貸款至少逾期90天，超過了2008年次級危機期間觀察到的高峰。