比特幣 (BTC) 進入 2024 年最後幾天，總體上經歷了橫向盤整階段

比特幣進入今年的最後幾天，整體上仍處於橫向盤整階段。隨著 BTC 價格進入 2025 年第一季度，這是否會成為最終爆發階段的開始，使比特幣價格大幅上漲？

Bitcoin price analysis: BTC price to explode in Q1 2025?

比特幣價格分析：2025 年第一季 BTC 價格將爆發？

Bitcoin is entering the last few days of the year still generally following a daily sideways consolidation phase. As the price moves into the first quarter of 2025, could this be the beginning of the final blow-off stage which takes Bitcoin much, much higher?

比特幣進入今年的最後幾天，整體上仍處於每日橫盤整理階段。隨著價格進入 2025 年第一季度，這是否會成為最終爆發階段的開始，使比特幣價格大幅上漲？

The last candle flame of 2024 is guttering, about to be extinguished as the bright new flame of 2025 is about to be lit. Entering into this strong new light, the price of Bitcoin has the tailwinds behind it which could send it to unimaginable heights in the coming new year.

2024年最後的蠟燭火焰即將熄滅，2025年明亮的新火焰即將點燃。進入這強勁的新曙光後，比特幣的價格將迎來新的一年，這可能會使其價格達到難以想像的高度。

Bitcoin’s path from despair to the hope of a very bright future

比特幣從絕望到光明未來的希望之路

From the depths of despair, when an incredibly anti-Bitcoin administration sought to strangle the king of the cryptocurrencies, along with the entire cryptocurrency ecosystem; to an incoming Trump administration that has vowed to support and encourage the growth of Bitcoin and crypto in the US; this unfolding story of cutting-edge technical innovation has been fascinating to watch.

從絕望的深淵，當一個令人難以置信的反比特幣政府試圖扼殺加密貨幣之王以及整個加密貨幣生態系統時；即將上任的川普政府誓言支持並鼓勵比特幣和加密貨幣在美國的發展；這個尖端技術創新的故事令人著迷。

Operation Chokepoint 2.0 is officially over. Gary Gensler, Chairman of the SEC, has said that he will step down the day before Donald Trump is inaugurated for his second term of President. With Trump’s administration full of pro-crypto members in several key positions, the future looks very bright.

阻塞點行動 2.0 正式結束。美國證券交易委員會主席加里·詹斯勒表示，他將在唐納德·川普就任第二任總統的前一天辭職。由於川普政府的多個關鍵職位都是支持加密貨幣的成員，未來看起來非常光明。

Institutions are onboard

機構已加入

The institutions are now on board as far as Bitcoin is concerned, with Blackrock, the biggest asset management company in the world, buying BTC for its institutional clients at the most frantic pace. This has made the Spot Bitcoin ETFs the most successful ever in the history of ETF launches.

就比特幣而言，各機構現在都加入了進來，全球最大的資產管理公司貝萊德(Blackrock)以最瘋狂的速度為其機構客戶購買比特幣。這使得現貨比特幣 ETF 成為 ETF 推出史上最成功的。

Add to this the gargantuan Bitcoin buying spree of MicroStrategy, which has been copied by a growing number of companies that are boosting their stock price by cramming more and more BTC into their treasuries, and you have a huge pile of dynamite just ready to explode.

再加上 MicroStrategy 的大規模比特幣購買熱潮，越來越多的公司紛紛效仿，透過將越來越多的比特幣塞進自己的金庫來推高股價，一大堆炸藥即將爆炸。

$BTC follows sideways price action over last few weeks

$BTC 跟隨過去幾週的橫向價格走勢

Source: TradingView

來源：TradingView

The daily chart for $BTC shows that the price has definitively left the ascending channel, and now appears to be following the bottom trendline of this channel, perhaps to fall back to around $90,000 which is the measured move for this breakdown.

BTC 的日線圖顯示，價格已明確離開上升通道，現在似乎正在跟隨該通道的底部趨勢線，可能會回落至 90,000 美元左右，這是此次突破的衡量走勢。

That said, if one looks at the $BTC price over the last few weeks, it can be seen that it has generally traversed sideways, with one spike in mid-December that took $BTC to the all-time high of around $108,000.

也就是說，如果我們看看過去幾週的 BTC 價格，就會發現它總體上橫盤整理，12 月中旬的一次飆升將 BTC 帶到了 108,000 美元左右的歷史高點。

Currently, the price is traversing above horizontal support at $95,600. Horizontal resistance has formed above this at $100,000, and the price is moving inside this range.

目前，價格正在突破水平支撐位 95,600 美元。水平阻力位已在 100,000 美元上方形成，且價格正在該範圍內移動。

RSI downtrend has to be reversed

RSI下降趨勢必須扭轉

Source: TradingView

來源：TradingView

In the weekly time frame it can be seen that the current price is above the long-time ascending trendline from 2021. Several candle wicks to the downside show how Bitcoin bulls are keeping the price buoyant. It might be imagined that once this consolidation is over, there could be some explosive price action that takes $BTC to the next level.

在每週時間範圍內，可以看到當前價格高於 2021 年以來的長期上升趨勢線。可以想像，一旦這種盤整結束，可能會出現一些爆炸性的價格走勢，將 BTC 帶到一個新的水平。

At the bottom of the chart, the Relative Strength Index is signalling a possible tick back to the upside. The red arrow points to the indicator starting to turn back up after the recent dip.

在圖表底部，相對強弱指數會發出可能回升的訊號。紅色箭頭指向該指標在最近的下跌後開始回升。

If this is confirmed at the weekly close, it will be important to watch to see if this indicator line can retest the ascending trendline. In fact, in order to avoid bearish divergence, as price increases while the RSI decreases, the indicator line will have to pierce through the descending trendline, and make a higher high in order to reverse the downtrend. Failure to do so could result in the end of this bull market.

如果這一點在周收盤時得到證實，那麼重要的是要觀察該指標線是否可以重新測試上升趨勢線。事實上，為了避免看跌背離，當價格上漲而RSI下降時，指標線必須突破下降趨勢線，並創造更高的高點，才能扭轉下降趨勢。如果不這樣做可能會導致本次牛市的結束。