比特幣（BTC）下降到200天的MA以下，引起了人們對更深層次回調的擔憂

比特幣（BTC）在過去一周中下降了11.3％

Bitcoin (BTC) price has dropped 11.3% over the past week and now trades in the low $80,000 range. The recent decline has pushed the leading cryptocurrency below the 200-day moving average (MA), raising concerns about a potential deeper pullback.

比特幣（BTC）的價格在過去一周中下跌了11.3％，現在的交易價格低至80,000美元。最近的下降使領先的加密貨幣低於200天的移動平均水平（MA），這引起了人們對潛在更深層次回調的擔憂。

According to an X post by seasoned crypto analyst Ali Martinez, BTC is currently trading below the 200-day MA, a key price level that has historically functioned as a strong support for the top digital asset.

根據經驗豐富的加密分析師阿里·馬丁內斯（Ali Martinez）的X帖子，BTC目前的交易低於200天的MA，這是一個關鍵價格水平，歷史上一直是對頂級數字資產的大力支持。

For the uninitiated, the 200-day MA is a famous technical indicator that essentially represents the average closing price of BTC over the last 200 days to identify the long-term price trend. According to Martinez, a sustained movement above the 200-day MA has led to long-term uptrends while a prolonged price movement below the level has often preceded further declines.

對於初學者來說，200天的MA是一個著名的技術指標，該指標實際上代表了過去200天內BTC的平均收盤價，以確定長期價格趨勢。根據馬丁內斯的說法，超過200天的MA的持續運動導致了長期上升趨勢，而長期以來的價格轉移卻低於該水平。

Martinez further stressed that BTC must remain above the TD Sequential indicator’s risk line at $79,280. According to the analyst, if the price drops below this level, it could have significant implications for the cryptocurrency.

馬丁內斯進一步強調，BTC必須在TD順序指標的風險線上保持79,280美元。根據分析師的說法，如果價格下跌以下，它可能會對加密貨幣產生重大影響。

However, if BTC manages to stay above the risk line and the 200-day MA, and if the buyers manage to maintain control, it could set the stage for a strong rebound to the upside.

但是，如果BTC設法保持高於風險線和200天的MA，並且如果買家設法保持控制權，則它可能會為強勁的反彈奠定基礎。

Potential For BTC Recovery

BTC恢復的潛力

The potential for a BTC recovery was also discussed by another crypto analyst, Ted, in a post on X. As highlighted by Ted, over the past two years, BTC has frequently undergone 25% to 30% corrections before rebounding to new all-time highs (ATHs).

另一位加密分析師TED在X上的帖子中還討論了BTC回收的潛力。正如TED所強調的那樣，在過去的兩年中，BTC經常進行25％至30％的校正，然後反彈到新的歷史高峰（ATHS）。

This pattern was evident in both 2022 and 2023. For instance, in 2023, BTC went from $30K to $22K during a 25% correction before continuing its upward trajectory.

這種模式在2022年和2023年都很明顯。例如，在2023年，BTC在25％的更正期間從3萬美元上漲到22,000美元，然後繼續其上升軌跡。

Similarly, in 2024, BTC experienced a 30% correction as it dropped from $74K to $50K. After each correction, the cryptocurrency experienced a strong rebound, eventually leading to new ATHs.

同樣，在2024年，BTC進行了30％的更正，因為它從$ 74K降至5萬美元。每次更正後，加密貨幣都經歷了強烈的反彈，最終導致了新的ATHS。

If BTC follows a similar pattern and climbs 30% from its current price, it could reach approximately $104,000 in a short period. However, broader macroeconomic factors – such as US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy – could significantly impact BTC’s trajectory.

如果BTC遵循類似的模式並比目前的價格攀升30％，則在短時間內可能達到約104,000美元。但是，更廣泛的宏觀經濟因素（例如美國總統唐納德·特朗普的貿易關稅和美聯儲（美聯儲）貨幣政策）可能會極大地影響BTC的軌跡。

BTC Needs To Reclaim $84,000 First

BTC需要首先收回$ 84,000

In another post on X, Martinez focused on BTC’s potential path to a new ATH, highlighting that BTC must first reclaim $84,000 as a support level. Once this milestone is secured, the digital asset could rally toward $128,000.

在X上的另一篇文章中，馬丁內斯專注於BTC通往新ATH的潛在途徑，強調BTC必須首先收回84,000美元作為支持水平。一旦確保了這個里程碑，數字資產就可以集結到128,000美元。

Several indicators suggest that BTC may have already found a local bottom, increasing the chances of a trend reversal. Crypto analyst Rekt Capital recently noted that BTC’s plunge to $78,258 could mark the cycle low.

一些指標表明，BTC可能已經找到了局部底部，增加了趨勢逆轉的機會。加密分析師Rekt Capital最近指出，BTC的跌至78,258美元可能標誌著周期的低點。

Additionally, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has just recorded one of its largest weekly breakdowns since 2013, a move that historically signals bullish momentum for risk-on assets like BTC.

此外，美元指數（DXY）自2013年以來剛剛記錄了其每週最大的崩潰之一，此舉歷史上標誌著BTC等風險資產的勢頭。

At press time, BTC trades at $80,137, down 3.5% in the past 24 hours.

發稿時，BTC的交易價格為80,137美元，在過去24小時內下跌3.5％。