隨著分析師在下一步行動中，比特幣（BTC）合併在$ 95,000到$ 97,000之間

儘管試圖在前一天反彈，但比特幣（BTC）在周四的大部分時間裡都交易了範圍。值得注意的是，在過去的兩個左右

Bitcoin (BTC) price remained largely range-bound on Thursday despite an attempt to rebound over the previous day.

儘管試圖在前一天反彈，但比特幣（BTC）的價格在周四仍在很大程度上限制。

The world’s largest cryptocurrency was trading at $95,695 at press time, reflecting a 1.43% surge in the past 24 hours and a 1.02% gain over the past seven days. However, BTC still remained far from its January peak of $109,300.

截至發稿時，全球最大的加密貨幣的交易價格為95,695美元，反映了過去24小時的1.43％的漲幅，過去7天的增長率為1.02％。但是，BTC仍然遠離其1月份的峰值109,300美元。

Notably, over the past two or so weeks, Bitcoin has been consolidating between $95,000 and $97,000, struggling to break through key resistance at $97,000.

值得注意的是，在過去的兩週左右的幾周中，比特幣在95,000美元至97,000美元之間的合併，努力以97,000美元的價格突破鑰匙阻力。

Meanwhile, amid this muted price action, analysts remained divided on Bitcoin’s next move.

同時，在這種靜音的價格行動中，分析師在比特幣的下一步行動上仍然存在分歧。

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju predicts a potential drop to $77,000 before the bull market resumes. Drawing from historical data, the pundit argues that such a decline would not signify the end of the bullish cycle.

CryptoQuant首席執行官Ki Young Ju預測，在牛市恢復之前，潛在的下降到77,000美元。從歷史數據中得出，專家認為這種下降並不能表示看漲週期的終結。

“I don’t think we’ll enter a bear market this year. We’re still in a bull cycle. The price would eventually go up, but the range seems broad. I personally think that the bull cycle could continue even with a -30% dip from ATH (e.g., $110,000_$77,000), as seen in past cycles,” he tweeted Wednesday.

“我認為今年我們不會進入熊市。我們仍處於公牛週期。價格最終會上漲，但范圍似乎很廣泛。我個人認為，即使在過去的周期中可以看出，即使從ATH下降到-30％的售價為-30％（例如，$ 110,000_ $ 77,000）也可以持續下去。”

Ju’s analysis was based on the realized price metric, which assesses the average cost basis of Bitcoin holders. According to his data, Bitcoin’s realized price among ETF custodians and major institutional players sits around $89,000, while Binance traders and mining companies have average entry points at $59,000 and $57,000, respectively.

JU的分析基於實現的價格指標，該指標評估了比特幣持有人的平均成本基礎。根據他的數據，比特幣在ETF託管人和主要機構參與者中的實現價格約為89,000美元，而Binance貿易商和礦業公司的平均入口點分別為59,000美元和57,000美元。

Historically, when prices fell below the breakeven level for large miners, it marked the final leg of a market correction before a new rally began. Ju cited past downturns in May 2022, March 2020, and November 2018 as examples of this pattern repeating.

從歷史上看，當價格低於大型礦工的收支平衡水平時，它標誌著在新的集會開始之前的市場更正的最後一站。 Ju引用了2022年5月，2020年3月和2018年11月的經濟低迷，作為這種模式重複的例子。

Elsewhere, some analysts warn that tightening fiat liquidity and uncertainty around U.S. economic policies could put downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price.

在其他地方，一些分析師警告說，加強美國經濟政策周圍的菲亞特流動性和不確定性可能會給比特幣的價格下降壓力。

Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes recently suggested that Bitcoin could drop to the $70,000–$75,000 range due to disappointment in the Trump administration’s stance on the asset. He argued that the key driver of this decline would be investors’ realization that the current U.S. president’s policies on Bitcoin are largely unchanged from those of his predecessors.

Bitmex前首席執行官Arthur Hayes最近建議，由於特朗普政府對資產的立場感到失望，比特幣可能會降至70,000至75,000美元。他認為，這種下降的主要推動力將是投資者意識到，現任美國總統對比特幣的政策在很大程度上與他的前任的政策沒有改變。

Meanwhile, macroeconomic factors and the post-halving cycle also play a significant role in Bitcoin’s potential retracement.

同時，宏觀經濟因素和備距後周期在比特幣的潛在反回中也起著重要作用。

CryptoQuant’s Timo Oinonen remained optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory, pointing out that following the April 2024 halving, Bitcoin’s price has only risen 63%, leaving room for further gains.

CryptoQuant的Timo Oinonen對比特幣的長期軌跡保持樂觀，指出，在2024年4月減半之後，比特幣的價格僅上漲了63％，為進一步的增長留出了空間。

“When looking at BTC’s halving of 2020 and its subsequent spot price peak, the asset climbed a total of 686% between the 11th of May 2020 and the 8th of November 2021. Between the latest halving on 20th April of 2024 and the recent ATH, BTC only ascended 63%,” he noted, highlighting the historical tendency for Bitcoin to rally in Q4.

“當觀察BTC的2020年減半和隨後的現貨價格峰值時，資產在2020年5月11日至2021年11月8日之間，總計攀升了686％。 BTC僅上升了63％，”他指出，強調了比特幣在第四季度集會的歷史趨勢。