比特幣（BTC）多頭將將此視為大幅上漲的開始，但存在一個問題

比特幣必須從當前水準大幅上漲才能達到 10 萬美元的吸引力。即使比特幣 (BTC) 的價格達到每枚 15 萬美元，大多數人也會認為透過選擇合適的股票可以實現這一漲幅。

Bitcoin has to go up a long way from current levels to be attractive at $100,000. Even if bitcoin (BTC) was to hit $150,000 a coin, that’s a sort of increase most people would consider achievable in picking the right stock. To get to the sort of multi-bagger profit, bitcoin would have to rise well on the way to the legendary target of $1 million. As far as I’m concerned this is not going to happen.

比特幣必須從目前的水平大幅上漲才能達到 10 萬美元的吸引力。即使比特幣 (BTC) 達到每枚 15 萬美元，大多數人也會認為透過選擇合適的股票可以實現這一漲幅。為了獲得這種多重利潤，比特幣必須大幅上漲，達到傳說中的 100 萬美元目標。就我而言，這不會發生。

The following projection is a sketch of why a big move up seems unlikely and where I see the top at the moment:

以下預測概述了為什麼似乎不太可能出現大幅上漲以及我目前看到的頂部位置：

The bitcoin chart: a projection for the top

比特幣圖表：頂部預測

The peak trend line gives an indication of where the top can be and it’s easy to use the halvening logic to suggest $120,000 is a doable limit to this cycle’s top. Bitcoin bulls will simply see this as the beginning of a move much higher, but there is a problem. At $1 million a bitcoin the implied market cap of bitcoin is $20 trillion dollars, or 125% of the market cap of the Magnificent 7 top U.S. stocks, or nearly half of the whole S&P 500. Bubbles can do crazy things, with the Japanese Emperor’s palace theoretically being worth all of California back in the 1980s for instance. This, however, is not on the cards.

峰值趨勢線給出了頂部可能在哪裡的指示，並且很容易使用減半邏輯來表明 120,000 美元是本週期頂部的可行限制。比特幣多頭只會將此視為大幅上漲的開始，但存在一個問題。以每枚比特幣100 萬美元計算，比特幣的隱含市值為20 兆美元，占美股7 強市值的125%，或整個標準普爾500 指數的近一半。天皇的泡沫可以做出瘋狂的事情。然而，這並不可能。

So now the call is, are we around the top or are we in a foothill of this crypto cycle? I’m in the camp that believes we are near the end of the run. This might seem sad but it’s not over for those looking for multi-bagger crypto opportunities.

所以現在的問題是，我們是在這個加密貨幣週期的頂峰還是山麓？我相信我們已經接近終點。這可能看起來令人悲傷，但對於那些尋找多袋加密貨幣機會的人來說，這還沒有結束。

Last two cycles this was exactly the time when you could double your winnings and do it with a fraction of the profit from the mainstream crypto position. In the last cycle I got out at $40,000 having got in dollar cost averaging at the previous low at low four-figure levels. I took my profit and took 20% of my win and played the altcoins for as much again in profit. This is the point where many will say, “You could have had 500% more profit if you had played it all.” This is correct but a few will know that that is not the way to play and keep your winnings, but instead the way to go and lose it all nine times out of ten. You only make what you get to keep and Mr Martingale is not your friend. All this aside, now is the time to trade a little to make a lot, while keeping the bulk of your profits safe.

過去兩個週期正是您可以用主流加密貨幣部位的一小部分利潤實現雙倍獲利的時候。在上一個週期中，我以 40,000 美元的價格退出，而平均美元成本則處於先前低點的四位數水平。我獲利了結，拿走了贏錢的 20%，然後再次玩山寨幣以獲取同樣多的利潤。正是在這一點上，許多人會說：“如果您全部玩完，您的利潤可能會增加 500%。”這是正確的，但有些人會知道，這不是玩遊戲並保住獎金的方法，而是十有八九輸掉獎金的方法。你只賺你能保留的東西，馬丁格爾先生不是你的朋友。撇開這一切不談，現在是時候進行少量交易以賺取大量利潤，同時確保大部分利潤的安全。

The action is on Solana and Base and is the new AI token scene. Make no mistake, this is nothing but gambling, or “technical trading” if you like, and in my opinion the chance of any of these tokens turning into businesses is no more likely than any Pet.com dotcom darlings of yore. However, they will go up like a rocket and of course down like a rock just as fast.

該動作發生在 Solana 和 Base 上，是新的 AI 代幣場景。毫無疑問，這只不過是賭博，或者如果你願意的話，也可以說是“技術交易”，在我看來，這些代幣中的任何一個變成企業的可能性並不比以前的任何Pet. com 網路寵兒較大。然而，它們會像火箭一樣上升，當然也會像岩石一樣快速下降。

It’s a “stock pickers” game and I won’t tip any tokens as they will all be nitroglycerin, but if you think bitcoin will jump 20%-50% up from here, this crazy stuff will go x10 that, if only for days or perhaps weeks. That is where the crypto dream is, for a few weeks or perhaps months.

這是一個「選股」遊戲，我不會給任何代幣小費，因為它們都是硝化甘油，但如果你認為比特幣會從這裡上漲20%-50%，那麼這個瘋狂的東西將會上漲10倍，就算只是幾天或也許是幾週。這就是加密貨幣夢想的所在，持續幾週甚至幾個月。

Meanwhile for those who lack the ‘Degen’ gene there are the second line old altcoins. A final run on bitcoin will be magnified in these coins and as venerable names you can at least be assured they have been seasoned a little by time. All in all, cryptos will move indiscriminately with bitcoin and for those who want to play the end of days for this cycle, the beloved crypto pop will be in the “assets” below the bitcoin crown. In the final vertical, however weak or mighty, the junior tiers will be where the insane returns live.

同時，對於缺乏「Degen」基因的人來說，還有二線舊山寨幣。比特幣的最終運行將在這些硬幣中放大，作為令人尊敬的名字，您至少可以放心，它們已經隨著時間的推移而變得更加成熟。總而言之，加密貨幣將與比特幣一起無差別地移動，對於那些想在這個週期中玩到末日的人來說，受人喜愛的加密貨幣流行將屬於比特幣皇冠以下的「資產」。在最後的垂直領域，無論弱小或強大，初級級別都將是瘋狂回歸的地方。

For me, it’s for the birds, but for many, it’s the dream.

對我來說，這是為了鳥兒，但對許多人來說，這是夢想。