$ 27B令牌在2025年初解鎖將測試市場流動性

市場正處於重大流動性挑戰的邊緣，價值數十億美元的加密代幣將在2025年第一季度解鎖。

The cryptocurrency market is bracing for a liquidity challenge as billions of dollars’ worth of crypto tokens are set to be unlocked in the first quarter of 2025.

加密貨幣市場正在迎接流動性挑戰，因為價值數十億美元的加密代幣將在2025年第一季度解鎖。

Last month alone saw over $15 billion in tokens released, and the pressure is far from over. Another $3 billion is expected this month, with an additional $9 billion scheduled for release between March and April.

僅上個月，釋放了超過150億美元的代幣，壓力還遠遠沒有結束。預計本月預計將再有30億美元，計劃在3月至4月之間額外發行90億美元。

This influx of new supply will test the market’s ability to absorb these assets while maintaining strong demand. Will the market handle the strain, or are we on the verge of a shake-up?

新供應的湧入將測試市場吸收這些資產的能力，同時保持強勁的需求。市場會處理壓力，還是我們正處於改頭換面的邊緣？

Token unlocks are the scheduled release of locked or vested tokens into circulation, usually following pre-defined timelines set during a project’s launch. These events are critical for the market as they directly impact a token’s circulating supply, potentially altering its price dynamics.

令牌解鎖是計劃在項目發布過程中設置的預定時間表之後，計劃將鎖定或既得令牌的預定發行版發佈到流通中。這些事件對市場至關重要，因為它們直接影響了令牌的循環供應，從而有可能改變其價格動態。

Historically, large unlocks have influenced investor sentiment, with some viewing them as opportunities for growth, while others fear selling pressure from early investors or insiders.

從歷史上看，大型解鎖影響了投資者的情緒，其中一些人認為它們是增長的機會，而另一些人則擔心出售早期投資者或內部人士的壓力。

Token unlocks often lead to heightened liquidity, but they can also trigger greater volatility as markets adjust to the influx of new supply. The balance between demand and supply during these periods becomes a defining factor in determining a token’s future trajectory.

令牌解鎖通常會導致流動性增加，但隨著市場適應新供應的湧入，它們也會引發更大的波動性。在這些時期的需求和供應之間的平衡成為確定令牌未來軌蹟的決定性因素。

2025 – Analyzing token unlocks so far

2025年 - 到目前為止分析令牌解鎖

According to data from X, there was a significant spike in token unlocks during January, with over $15 billion released, compared to $8 billion in December.

根據X的數據，1月份的代幣解鎖上有很大的上升，釋放了超過150億美元，而12月為80億美元。

February is expected to see a sharp decrease in unlock value, with the same sitting under $3 billion. However, March and April are set to bring additional surges, each exceeding $4 billion. This uneven distribution reflects varying vesting schedules across projects.

預計2月的解鎖價值將急劇下降，同樣的價格低於30億美元。但是，三月和四月將帶來額外的潮流，每個激報超過40億美元。這種不均勻的分佈反映了各個項目之間的不同歸屬時間表。

The January peak likely increased market volatility as early investors gained liquidity. The upcoming March and April unlocks will test market stability, highlighting the need for sustained demand to avoid price corrections.

隨著早期投資者獲得流動性，一月的峰值可能會增加市場波動。即將到來的3月和4月的解鎖將測試市場穩定性，強調需要持續需求以避免價格糾正。

The liquidity test – Will demand rise to absorb the supply?

流動性測試 - 要求增加供應嗎？

The $27 billion in token unlocks scheduled for early 2025 poses a critical liquidity test for the market. Demand will be driven by institutional interest and retail activity, particularly in DeFi and gaming.

計劃於2025年初開放的270億美元的代幣解鎖為市場帶來了關鍵的流動性測試。需求將由機構利益和零售活動驅動，尤其是在Defi和遊戲中。

In fact, historical data shows that strong sentiment can help absorb supply, as seen in bullish cycles. On the supply side, the sheer volume of tokens entering circulation may exacerbate price volatility, testing investor psychology and confidence.

實際上，歷史數據表明，正如看漲週期所示，強烈的情感可以幫助吸收供應。在供應方面，進入流通的代幣數量可能會加劇價格波動，測試投資者心理學和信心。

Previous unlocks have shown that price corrections are common, although their severity depends on market resilience and the pace with which the new supply is absorbed.

以前的解鎖表明，價格更正很常見，儘管它們的嚴重性取決於市場的彈性以及新供應的吸收速度。

Market overhang occurs when a large volume of crypto tokens enters circulation, creating an imbalance between supply and demand. Without sufficient buy-side interest, this excess supply can push the price down, eroding investor confidence.

當大量加密代幣進入流通時，就會發生市場懸垂，從而在供應和需求之間造成不平衡。如果沒有足夠的買方利息，這種過剩的供應可以將價格降低，從而侵蝕投資者的信心。

For tokens unlocking billions, the risk of overhang is particularly high. If demand falters, even fundamentally strong projects may struggle to maintain their value.

對於釋放數十億美元的代幣，懸垂的風險特別高。如果需求流行，即使從根本上講，強大的項目也可能難以維持其價值。

Historically, it has taken months for markets to stabilize after major unlocks, depending on token utility, liquidity, and market conditions. Projects with lower trading volumes or limited utility may see prolonged price suppression, increasing the risk of panic selling.

從歷史上看，根據令牌公用事業，流動性和市場狀況，市場花了幾個月的時間才能穩定。交易量較低或公用事業有限的項目可能會長時間抑制價格，從而增加了恐慌銷售的風險。