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比特幣減半了 - 這次,它可能是迄今為止最重要的。計劃於2025年初
The year 2025 promises a momentous event in the cryptocurrency realm—the Bitcoin halving. Scheduled for early next year, this quadrennial event has historically sparked wild bull markets, transforming the entire crypto landscape.
2025年有望在加密貨幣領域進行重大事件 - 比特幣減半。這項四年賽事定於明年年初,歷史上引發了野外牛市,改變了整個加密貨幣景觀。
But this time, the scene is set differently. Institutional adoption of digital assets has reached record levels with ETFs, hedge funds, and corporations making significant inroads.
但是這次,場景的設置不同。數字資產的機構採用已隨著ETF,對沖基金和公司的重大影響而達到了創紀錄的水平。
Plus, altcoins have matured with real-world use cases in DeFi, AI, and RWAs. Finally, macroeconomic conditions like rate cuts and dollar weakness could supercharge crypto prices.
另外,AltCoins已在DEFI,AI和RWAS中使用現實世界中的用例成熟。最後,宏觀經濟條件(例如降低率和美元弱點)可以增強加密貨幣價格。
In this guide, we’ll explore how the 2025 halving differs from past cycles, Bitcoin’s potential price trajectory, and why altcoins could deliver 10x-50x returns.
在本指南中,我們將探討2025年減半與過去的周期,比特幣的潛在價格軌跡以及山寨幣為什麼可以提供10倍-50x的回報。
We’ll also discuss smart portfolio strategies for each phase of the bull market.
我們還將討論牛市每個階段的智能投資組合策略。
Let’s begin.
讓我們開始。
Bitcoin Halving 101: Why It Matters
比特幣減半101:為什麼重要
Every 210,000 blocks (approximately 4 years), Bitcoin’s block reward is cut in half.
每210,000個街區(大約4年),比特幣的蓋帽獎勵被切成兩半。
Currently, miners receive 3.125 BTC per block. After the 2025 halving, this will halve to 1.5625 BTC.
目前,礦工每塊獲得3.125 BTC。在2025年減半之後,將其減少到1.5625 BTC。
Key Implications:
關鍵含義:
* Supply Shock: Daily Bitcoin issuance will drop from around 900 BTC to 450 BTC.
*供應衝擊:每日比特幣發行將從約900 BTC下降到450 BTC。
* Inflation Rate: Bitcoin’s yearly inflation rate will fall below gold’s at roughly 0.4% (gold’s is about 1.6%).
*通貨膨脹率:比特幣的年度通貨膨脹率將低於黃金的0.4%(黃金約為1.6%)。
* Miner Adaptability: Miners will need to upgrade efficiency or rely on a higher BTC price to stay profitable.
*礦工適應性:礦工需要提高效率或依靠更高的BTC價格來保持盈利。
Historical Cycles:
歷史週期:
| Halving Year | Pre-Halving BTC Price | Post-Halving Peak | Gain | Altcoin Season Start |
|減半的一年|預定的BTC價格|備後峰|增益| Altcoin季節開始|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2012 | $12 | $1,150 | 95x | 6 months post-halving |
| 2012 | $ 12 | $ 1,150 | 95x |晚期後6個月|
| 2016 | $650 | $20,000 | 30x | 9 months post-halving |
| 2016 | $ 650 | $ 20,000 | 30x |晚期後9個月|
| 2020 | $8,500 | $69,000 | 8x | 12 months post-halving |
| 2020 | $ 8,500 | $ 69,000 | 8x |備忘後12個月|
2025 Projections:
2025預測:
If history repeats, we can expect to see BTC peak 12-18 months after the halving.
如果歷史重複,我們可以期望在減半後12-18個月看到BTC峰值。
* Conservative Target: $150K-$250K by mid-2024.
*保守的目標:$ 150K- $ 250K到2024年中。
* Bullish Scenario: BTC could reach $300K+ with sustained ETF inflows and hyperbitcoinization.
*看漲場景:隨著ETF的持續流入和超穩定化,BTC可以達到30萬美元以上。
The Altcoin Opportunity: 3 Reasons 2025 Could Be Bigger Than 2021
AltCoin機會:2025年的3個原因可能大於2021
1. Bitcoin Dominance Flips to Altcoins
1。比特幣優勢轉移到山寨幣
After the halving, BTC dominance usually peaks and then falls as capital flows into altcoins.
減半後,BTC的優勢通常達到峰值,然後隨著資本流入山寨幣而跌落。
Key Signal: Keep an eye on BTC dominance dropping below the 40% level.
鑰匙信號:密切關注BTC優勢下降到40%以下。
2. Ethereum ETF Effect
2。以太坊ETF效應
A spot ETH ETF approval (likely in 2025) could trigger an altcoin liquidity tsunami.
現貨ETH ETF批准(可能在2025年)可能會觸發Altcoin流動性海嘯。
Institutions will likely diversify into SOL, XRP, ADA, and emerging sectors.
機構可能會使SOL,XRP,ADA和新興部門多樣化。
3. New Narratives = New Millionaires
3。新敘述=新百萬富翁
* AI Tokens (FET, AGIX, RNDR): Artificial intelligence integration with blockchain technology.
* AI令牌(FET,AGIX,RNDR):與區塊鏈技術的人工智能整合。
* DePIN (Helium (HNT), Internet of Things (IOTX Tokens): Decentralized physical infrastructure tokens.
* depin(氦氣(HNT),物聯網(IOTX令牌):分散的物理基礎設施令牌。
* RWA (Ondo Finance (ONDO), AnChain.ai (TOKEN): Tokenized real-world assets.
* RWA(ondo Finance(Ondo),anchain.ai(token):令牌現實世界中的資產。
* Memecoins: Retail FOMO plays with viral potential.
* Memecoins:零售FOMO發揮了病毒潛力。
Smart Portfolio Strategy for Each Phase
每個階段的智能投資組合策略
Phase 1: Pre-Halving (Now – Q1 2025)
第1階段:預先安排(現在 - Q1 2025)
* 60% Bitcoin: The safest halving play.
* 60%比特幣:最安全的減半遊戲。
* 30% Blue-Chip Alts: ETH, SOL, BNB.
* 30%的藍芯片Alts:ETH,SOL,BNB。
* 10% High-Risk/High-Reward: Low-cap gems with strong narratives.
* 10%的高風險/高回報:具有強烈敘述的低位寶石。
Phase 2: Halving to Peak (Q2 2025 – Q3 2026)
階段2:減半到峰值(Q2 2025 - Q3 2026)
* Take 20%-30% BTC profits at $100K, $150K, $200K to stagger exits.
*將20%-30%的BTC利潤售價為$ 100K,$ 150K,$ 200K,到錯失退出。
* Rotate into altcoins: Focus on sectors that are outperforming.
*旋轉到AltCoins:專注於表現優於表現的扇區。
* Stagger exits on altcoins at 2x, 5x, 10x gains to secure some profits.
*在2倍,5倍,10倍上漲的山寨幣上的交錯退出,以確保一些利潤。
Phase 3: Market Top (Euphoria Signs)
第三階段:市場頂部(欣快標誌)
* When: Crypto dominates mainstream news, memecoins 10x, and BTC “to the moon” tweets flood social media.
*什麼時候:加密貨幣主導主流新聞,Memecoins 10X和BTC“ To Moon”推文氾濫社交媒體。
* Action: Secure remaining profits in stable
*行動:穩定中的剩餘利潤
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