Altcoin季節推遲了 - 比特幣繼續超過競爭對手

JAN3首席執行官和著名的加密專家Samson Mow表示，比特幣對加密市場的控制可能還遠遠沒有結束。

According to Jan3 CEO and renowned crypto expert Samson Mow, Bitcoin’s grip on the crypto market may be far from over. While many expected Bitcoin dominance to level off around 60% this year, it’s already surpassed that—and Mow believes there’s still plenty of room for the world’s leading cryptocurrency to climb.

根據JAN3首席執行官和著名的加密專家Samson Mow的說法，比特幣對加密貨幣市場的控制可能還遠遠沒有結束。儘管許多預期比特幣今年的優勢降低了60％，但已經超過了這一點，並且MOW認為，世界上領先的加密貨幣仍然有足夠的空間。

In a recent analysis, Mow challenged common assumptions around altcoin valuations by highlighting a psychological phenomenon known as “unit bias.” The idea is simple: people tend to prefer owning whole units of cheaper assets rather than fractional shares of more expensive ones. This often leads new investors to overvalue altcoins simply because they can buy more of them for the same amount of money.

在最近的一項分析中，MOW通過強調一種稱為“單位偏見”的心理現象，挑戰了Altcoin估值的共同假設。這個想法很簡單：人們傾向於擁有更便宜的資產的整個單位，而不是昂貴的資產的分數。這通常會導致新的投資者過分價值高價，僅僅是因為他們可以以相同數量的錢購買更多的投資者。

To illustrate his point, Mow compared altcoin prices to Bitcoin’s capped supply model. “What if every altcoin had the same 21 million total supply like Bitcoin?” he asked. In that case, Ethereum would be priced over $9,000, XRP over $5,800, and Solana at around $3,400—figures that, he argued, expose the inflated perception of value many altcoins currently enjoy. “There’s no way those valuations hold up,” Mow stated bluntly.

為了說明他的觀點，MOW將Altcoin價格與比特幣的上限供應模型進行了比較。 “如果每個Altcoin都有像比特幣相同的2100萬個總供應量？”他問。在這種情況下，以太坊的價格將超過$ 9,000，XRP超過5,800美元，Solana的價格為3,400美元左右，他認為，這一發現揭示了許多AltCoins目前喜歡的價值的膨脹感。莫夫直言不諱地說：“這些估值不可能堅持下去。”

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Mow claims that many altcoins intentionally exploit unit bias by purposely inflating their token supply, making their prices appear deceptively low to new investors. This strategy, he says, leaves most retail investors largely unaware of what they’re actually purchasing.

MOW聲稱，許多Altcoins故意通過故意膨脹其令牌供應來利用單位偏見，從而使價格看上去對新投資者看似低。他說，這一策略使大多數散戶投資者在很大程度上不知道他們實際購買的東西。

He’s not alone in this observation. Other Bitcoin advocates have also described unit bias as one of the key mental shortcuts used by inexperienced investors to justify buying into cheaper tokens in an attempt to forge a path to astronomical returns. However, as Mow pointed out, most altcoins would be drastically undervalued if they were subject to the same level of interest and attention as Bitcoin.

他並不孤單。其他比特幣的擁護者還將單位偏見描述為缺乏經驗的投資者使用的關鍵精神捷徑之一，以證明購買更便宜的令牌，以試圖為天文回報提供途徑。但是，正如Mow所指出的那樣，如果大多數山寨幣受到與比特幣相同的興趣和關注程度，將被大大低估。

Despite previous analyst projections that Bitcoin’s dominance would peak at 60% before altcoins began their decisive rally, the metric has now crossed 63%, according to TradingView. And if anything, Mow expects this figure to rise even further, suggesting that Bitcoin’s market share isn’t likely to top out just yet.

根據TradingView的數據，儘管先前的分析師預測，比特幣的統治地位在山寨幣開始決定性集會之前將達到60％的峰值，但該指標現已越過63％。如果有的話，MOW預計這個數字會進一步上升，這表明比特幣的市場份額尚不可能列為最高。

Historically, periods of falling Bitcoin dominance tend to coincide with the start of significant altcoin rallies. But if Mow’s analysis is correct, then the long-anticipated altcoin season may still be further off than many anticipated.

從歷史上看，比特幣優勢下降的時期往往與大型山寨幣集會的開始相吻合。但是，如果MOW的分析是正確的，那麼長期以來的Altcoin季節可能仍然比許多人預期的要遠。

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