XRP 的复苏因支持减弱、法律困境和看跌指标而陷入停滞

XRP's Recovery Faces Obstacles Amidst Bearish Indicators and Supply Distribution Changes

XRP, the native token of the Ripple network, experienced a brief uptick in value following its recent drop, but on-chain data suggests that this recovery may be short-lived. Despite a 5% gain in the past 24 hours, XRP remains below its previous resistance level of $0.50.

Diminishing Supply Among Key Holders

An analysis of XRP's supply distribution reveals a significant decline in the number of addresses holding substantial amounts of the token. Holders of 100,000 to 1 million XRP have fallen from approximately 31,000 in March to a lower figure at present. Similarly, the number of addresses holding 100 to 1,000 XRP has also decreased from close to 731,000 to 718,000.

This reduction in the number of significant holders implies a loss of confidence in the token, indicating a potential barrier to its upward movement. XRP may struggle to revisit its previous peaks of around $0.72 due to this diminishing support.

Ripple's Ongoing Legal Battles

Ripple's ongoing lawsuit with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) casts further uncertainty over XRP's future. The upcoming response from Ripple to the SEC's latest brief on April 22nd could influence sentiment and potentially affect the token's price. A favorable outcome for Ripple may support XRP's recovery, while an unfavorable ruling could trigger a decline below $0.50.

Technical Indicators Signal Bearish Trends

Technical indicators also suggest a bearish outlook for XRP. The Stochastic Relative Strength Index (Stoch RSI) is above 80, indicating overbought conditions and potential for a sell-off. Additionally, the 9 Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and 20 EMA have crossed below XRP's price, further suggesting a downward trend.

Accumulation and Distribution Dynamics

The Accumulation/Distribution (A/D) line indicates buying pressure, but its upward trajectory has been relatively muted. If buying pressure increases and accumulation outpaces distribution, XRP may experience a bounce. However, persistent selling pressure could drive the token towards $0.45.

Weakening Realized Cap

The realized cap, a metric measuring the total realized profits and losses of all XRP holders, has declined to 147.56 million. This suggests that recent price action has resulted in more realized losses, indicating further downside potential unless significant buying occurs at lower prices.

Conclusion

XRP's recent recovery faces several challenges. Diminishing supply among key holders, ongoing legal uncertainties, bearish technical indicators, and a weakening realized cap suggest that the token's upward momentum may be ограничен. Investors should exercise caution and monitor the developments surrounding Ripple's lawsuit and the overall market sentiment before making any investment decisions.