Happy halving! BTC halved, a node in the middle of the bull market.

❀Happy halving! Yesterday morning BTC completed its fourth halving in 15 years. However, now BTC has gradually changed from the "physical emotional bull" in the past to an "institutional artificial bull". If the bull market is divided into early, mid-term and late stages, the halving is the starting point for the mid-term.



❀ Compared with past halvings, BTC’s market dynamics have matured significantly, which may reduce the direct impact of new BTC issuance on market prices. This change is primarily driven by increased institutional demand and widespread adoption of Bitcoin ETFs.





❀ Going forward, ETFs are major players in the market and their activity may mask the historical impact of halvings. The inflows and outflows of ETFs have had a significant impact on the market, and BTC has changed from a "safe haven asset" in the past to a less "safe haven". It is gradually affected by external factors. In the future, the sudden rise and fall may no longer be so "violent".

❀Historically, halvings have led to significant market rallies by cutting into the supply of new Bitcoins, potentially pushing prices higher due to increased demand. This time, however, the dynamics are further complicated by heavy institutional participation in ETFs and significant changes in the activity of long-term investors and “smart money” entities.

❀As traders, we should pay more attention to the impact of ETF inflows and outflows on the K-line structure in the future to judge the trend. Will history repeat itself? It's become less certain now. Since January 11, new history has been created, which means that the past history of reaching the previous high after the halving has been broken. This time, the previous high was refreshed 43 days ago before the halving.

❀ “Past performance does not guarantee future results”, but as an important event for BTC, the halving may be a node in the middle of the bull market. Now Lao Wang uses a few historical samples to guess the next market trend. It needs to be stated that this is just a "guess." Although it cannot be used as a strong basis for judging the future situation, it can at least allow us to do so. Know what to expect and be mentally prepared in advance.

(1) The previous three times were all achieved after the halving. The second and third times took 270 and 218 days respectively to officially break through the previous high. However, this time it refreshed the previous high 43 days before the halving. Then Will it make up for the decline? Will it hover near the previous high for a long time? We must be mentally prepared. Another point to mention here is that based on the situation of the first two rounds of bull markets, after BTC stabilized its previous high, some copycats took the lead in skyrocketing. After 1-4 months, these copycats reached the top and collapsed.

(ii) About 54 days after halving. (Due to incomplete data, only the second and third times were counted) ❶The closing price on the day of the second halving took 36 days to hit a new low, with a drop of -13.35%. ❷The closing price on the day of the third halving took 13 days to hit a new low, with a drop of -7.76%. ❸In other words, there were innovative phenomena after the previous two halvings. So if history repeats itself this time, the first support level below is 56200, and the second support level is 52800. ❹We also discovered an interesting phenomenon. The second and third halvings started on the 54th day and never returned.

(iii) After the halving, it will experience multiple plunges and washouts before reaching the peak of the bull market. (Due to incomplete data, only the second and third times were counted.) ❶ Before reaching the peak of the bull market after the second halving, it experienced 8 times of sharp declines of more than 20%, with an average decline of -32.8%. ❷Before reaching the peak of the bull market after the third halving, it experienced 5 times of sharp declines of more than 20%, with an average decline of -31.51%. ❸For knowledgeable traders, these plunges are opportunities. For new leeks, these plunges are a nightmare. According to my observation, many leeks have lost their principal to zero and left the market angrily after experiencing such plunges 2-4 times. .

(IV) Regarding the time to reach the peak of the bull market after the halving. ❶It took 371 days for the first halving to reach the peak of the bull market. ❷It took 525 days for the second halving to reach the peak of the bull market, with an increase of 2961.47%. ❸It took 547 days for the third halving to reach the peak of the bull market, with an increase of 682.6%. ❹The average time it took for the first three halvings to reach the peak of the bull market was 481 days. In other words, if history repeats itself, traders will be ready to take profits after July 2025.

(5) Through the peak increase after the first three halvings, we found the phenomenon of attenuation of the increase. If history repeats itself, then the increase after this halving may only be 160%.

Summary: Since BTC has only 15 years of history and the sample is too small, "past performance does not guarantee future results." ETF will be a major participant in the market in the future, and its outflows and inflows will have a significant impact on the market, and it ’s activities will be more affected by external influences, and future trends will be full of more uncertainties, but one thing is certain, fluctuations may tend to decrease.

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