#btc #eth Why position management; will Israel’s attack on Hamas trigger a large-scale conflict? Will the US PCE data for April be released this Friday night? Will it be higher than expected?

TG: @Daishubtc
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A new week has begun, here are some adjusted content, keeping the original meaning:

Last week we experienced the approval of the first phase of the Ethereum ETF, which caused the price of ETH to skyrocket. Friends who bought ETH based on the analysis have made a lot of money. In addition, there were several US economic data that exceeded expectations last week, as well as the hawkish FOMC meeting minutes and the stance of multiple Federal Reserve officials that they would not cut interest rates. These news had a negative impact on other cryptocurrencies besides ETH.

Here are three big things we should be paying attention to this week:
(1) Whether Israel’s attack on Hamas will trigger a large-scale conflict. At present, the negotiations have broken down, and there is still strong public support in Israel to continue the war. That would be fine if the conflict was smaller, but getting involved in the conflict between Egypt and Iran could cause the price of Bitcoin to drop significantly. The probability of large-scale conflict is 30%.
(2) The U.S. PCE data for April will be released this Friday evening, which is expected to be higher than expected, which may have a negative impact on the market. If the data is lower than expected, it will be good news, and Bitcoin is expected to challenge the previous high!
(3) The U.S. Treasury Department will begin a series of U.S. debt repurchase operations on Wednesday, which will have an indirect positive impact on the cryptocurrency market. The Treasury Department repurchased a large amount of Treasury bonds, reducing the supply of Treasury bonds on the market, thus pushing up Treasury bond prices and lowering yields. This is good news for risky assets in the cryptocurrency market.

It was previously recommended that you adjust your ETH position to 10% and continue to hold it patiently. In the absence of a black swan event this week, the possibility of ETH breaking through $4,000 is relatively high. Now my recommended position is 70%.