How Bitcoin Mining Has Changed Since the Last Halving

And what to expect next.
Every four years, we experience a bonus day in February, the United States elects a president (ideally one supportive of Bitcoin), the Olympics take place, and we witness a significant event called the Bitcoin halving.
In the grand scheme of things, four years may seem relatively short. However, in the realm of Bitcoin mining, where changes in the geographical landscape, hash rate growth, and industry efficiency are big factors, a lot has occurred since the previous halving event.
This feature is part of CoinDesk’s “Future of Bitcoin” package published to coincide with the fourth Bitcoin “halving” in April 2024. Amanda Fabiano, former head of mining at Galaxy Digital, is the founder of Fabiano Consulting, which assists the Bitcoin mining industry in accomplishing its goals.
In 2020, we experienced the last halving during the height of the COVID lockdown, when many of my mining friends celebrated this epic occasion from afar, with hopes of celebrating IRL in four years.
At that time, the price of Bitcoin hovered around $8,700, while the hash rate stood at approximately 120 EH/s. The majority of the hash rate was concentrated in China, and rumors regarding the possibility of a Chinese ban were merely rumors.
Today, we’re nearing the upcoming halving, with Bitcoin price and hash rate reaching unprecedented levels. It’s challenging to envision the landscape for the next halving in 2028.
Since the last halving, the exodus of China miners drastically changed the mining landscape. Miners have sought refuge in jurisdictions offering hospitality or opportunities for energy arbitrage, which became a pivotal metric for success. Several nation states, such as Bhutan, El Salvador, and even Venezuela for a short period, not only embraced miners but also devised strategies to set up mining operations themselves. Not all places that opened their arms to miners ended up being great locations, including Quebec, Canada and Kazakhstan.
Texas emerged as a dominant mining hub, while Latin America and the Middle East saw growing interest and involvement in the mining sector.
Going forward, the surge in hash rate across the Middle East and Africa will continue and, based on announcements from the U.S.-listed companies, there is likely to be an increase of hash rate across North America. Miners will follow the cheapest forms of energy in jurisdictions that are economical and collaborative.
Maybe we will even experience hash rate seasonality again–this round unfolding in ERCOT markets versus rainy seasons in China.
Another major trend over the past cycle was the increase in institutional adoption. The long-awaited approval of Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. played a significant role in legitimizing Bitcoin as an asset class within mainstream financial markets. The ETFs provided institutional investors with a regulated and accessible avenue to invest in Bitcoin, thereby forcing regulatory authorities and traditional financial institutions to seriously take a look at Bitcoin. While the ETF was having its moment, we can’t forget that public miners were there for institutional investors to invest in as an alternative to holding Bitcoin.
Over the last four years, the proliferation of public miners has been massive.
In 2020, there were only two public miners listed on the NASDAQ. By 2024, it’s hard to keep track of how many public miners there are across multiple exchanges across...
https://www.coindesk.com/consensus-magazine/2024/03/25/how-bitcoin-mining-has-changed-since-the-last-halving/
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