Toncoin [TON] Rallies 66% From March Lows, Can It Push Beyond $4 Soon?

Toncoin [TON] staged an aggressive recovery from $2.5 earlier in March. Since forming the monthly lows at $2.35, TON was up 66% in three weeks.

Toncoin [TON] staged an aggressive recovery from $2.5 earlier in March. Since forming the monthly lows at $2.35, TON was up 66% in three weeks.

The rally also meant its market structure was bullish on the 1-day chart, and traders and investors can expect the trend to continue.

Source: IntoTheBlock

The token noted a curious lack of correlation with other popular crypto assets. Data from IntoTheBlock showed that it had a +0.53 30-day price correlation with Shiba Inu [SHIB] and a +0.23 correlation with Bitcoin [BTC].

This indicated that Toncoin wasn’t following any of the major tokens, but just running its race.

Toncoin can push beyond $4 soon

The lack of correlation with BTC over the past month was a slight encouragement to the bulls. It meant that TON was already unshackled, and its bullish momentum could continue even as BTC fell toward $80k.

Source: IntoTheBlock

The in/out of the money around price showed the $3.83-$3.94 region had seen 673 million TON purchased.

These holders were in profit on their Toncoin, and a retest of this demand zone might not spark selling pressure. Hence, it can be expected to serve as support.

The resistance levels higher appeared much smaller by comparison, with only the $4.42-$4.54 area was expected to offer stern opposition.

Source: Santiment

The network activity has been rising in March alongside the price. The daily active addresses’ 30-day moving average has made a higher low compared to the second week of March.

This signified increased activity and demand for TON.

The rally saw the dormant circulation spike multiple times over the past week. This implied increased token movements and was likely the result of holders taking profit after the rally.

However, this does not diminish the chances of further gains.

Source: TON/USDT on TradingView

The Toncoin price chart was bullish after breaking the lower high from February at $3.95. The price has made a series of higher lows and higher highs on the lower timeframes, denoting a bullish trend.

This bullish market structure shift meant the daily timeframe might do the same in the coming weeks. The OBV has soared higher, surpassing the highs made earlier in 2025 and challenging the December levels.

This indicated strong buying pressure.

Overall, further gains appeared likely for Toncoin. The next resistance levels to watch were $4.5 and $4.8.