title: BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believes Bitcoin (BTC) will soon start printing rallies

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believes that Bitcoin (BTC) will soon start printing rallies due to one main catalyst.

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of cryptocurrency derivatives exchange BitMEX, remains bullish on Bitcoin (BTC) despite its recent price pullback.

In a new post, Hayes says that he expects the main catalyst for the cryptocurrency to start printing rallies once again will be the Fed pivoting on its monetary policy.

According to Hayes, the Fed chair Jerome Powell’s recent comments on keeping interest rates at the peak for a longer period indicate that the market will begin to price in liquidity over the horizon.

“As I highlighted last [month], I believe that the administration will not permit the US to default on its debt. Therefore, I am confident QT, at least regarding Treasuries, will stop in the short to medium term. Going further, Powell stated that while they may maintain mortgage back security runoff, they will net buy Treasuries. Mathematically, that keeps the Fed balance sheet constant; however, that is Treasury QE. Bitcoin will scream higher once this is formally announced. Furthermore, because the banks and the Treasury demand it, the Fed will grant the SLR (Supplementary Leverage Ratio) exemption for the banks, which is another form of Treasury QE.”

“As I highlighted last [month], I believe that the administration will not permit the US to default on its debt. Therefore, I am confident QT, at least regarding Treasuries, will stop in the short to medium term. Going further, Powell stated that while they may maintain mortgage back security runoff, they will net buy Treasuries. Mathematically, that keeps the Fed balance sheet constant; however, that is Treasury QE. Bitcoin will scream higher once this is formally announced. Furthermore, because the banks and the Treasury demand it, the Fed will grant the SLR (Supplementary Leverage Ratio) exemption for the banks, which is another form of Treasury QE.”

According to the BitMEX co-founder, Bitcoin remains on track to hit $250,000 by the year’s end if the Fed shifts to QE.

“If my analysis of the Fed’s major pivot from QT to QE for Treasuries is correct, then Bitcoin hit a local low of $76,500 last month, and now we begin the ascent to $250,000 by year-end. Of course, this is not an exact science, but using the gold example, if I had to place a bet on whether I thought Bitcoin would hit $76,500 or $110,000 first, I would bet on the latter. Even if US stocks continue falling in reaction to tariffs, a collapse in earnings expectations, and or foreigner demand waning, I am confident that the odds favor Bitcoin continuing to climb higher.”

“If my analysis of the Fed’s major pivot from QT to QE for Treasuries is correct, then Bitcoin hit a local low of $76,500 last month, and now we begin the ascent to $250,000 by year-end. Of course, this is not an exact science, but using the gold example, if I had to place a bet on whether I thought Bitcoin would hit $76,500 or $110,000 first, I would bet on the latter. Even if US stocks continue falling in reaction to tariffs, a collapse in earnings expectations, and or foreigner demand waning, I am confident that the odds favor Bitcoin continuing to climb higher.”

Bitcoin is trading for $82,702 at time of writing, down 3.2% in the last 24 hours.