Solana (SOL) Futures Launched on CME with Limited Initial Reception

Unlike the grand introductions of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) futures, Solana’s debut went largely unnoticed.

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) quietly introduced Solana (SOL) futures on Monday, a stark contrast to the grand unveilings of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) futures.

While the first day of trading saw $12.3 million in notional volume and left $7.8 million in open interest, these figures pale in comparison to BTC and ETH at their launches. As K33 Research's latest report highlights, Bitcoin futures, which debuted in December 2017, notched a staggering $102.7 million in first-day trading volume, accompanied by open interest of $20.9 million.

Later, in February 2021, Ethereum futures stepped onto the scene with $31 million in volume and $20 million in open interest.

Now, as Solana's futures enter the market, they do so amid a bearish crypto market, further impacted by the decline of memecoins and recent advertising missteps by Solana. This is reflected in the SOL token itself dropping 10% from prior weekend highs, compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum's more modest declines of 4.5% and 3.8%, respectively.

However, adjusting for market capitalization, the initial reception of Solana's futures aligns more closely with BTC and ETH's launches. K33 analysts noted that Solana's market cap was roughly $65 billion at the time of launching its futures, dwarfing Bitcoin's $318 billion and Ethereum's $200 billion during their respective debuts.

Moreover, Solana's timing for launching its futures product faced headwinds due to prevailing market conditions.

Historical precedents show that Bitcoin's CME futures launched amid a peak speculative phase, leading to immediate demand of $700 million for the futures product. In contrast, Solana's launch occurs in a risk-off environment, lacking significant catalysts or hype to spur demand.

“The enthusiasm for this new CME product launch is significant as it arrives at a time when major liquid funds are looking for ways to manage their Solana exposure, especially given the lack of futures-based exchange-traded products (ETFs) focusing on Solana,” said derivatives trader Josh Lim, who recently started Arbelos Markets—acquired by prime broker FalconX.

FalconX executed the first SOL futures block trade on CME with financial services firm StoneX, Lim confirmed, adding that he's optimistic as the CME product provides an opportunity for liquid funds to manage their SOL holdings.

“We're really going to see what happens when a token with liquid futures rolls over in a big way and there's no ETF to absorb it. Is the market going to create demand for it?” Lim questioned in a Telegram message.

When asked about hedge funds' interest in Solana futures, Lim replied in the affirmative, adding that they'll be able to access it through these new instruments, something they've been requesting for a long time.

“People are missing the big picture on the new CME products. There's a narrative that we're in a bear market and no one cares about altcoins. But we're also in an environment where we have a new generation of liquid funds that prefer futures to ETFs and have a mandate for managing Solana exposure,” Lim explained.