Solana (SOL) vs Bitcoin (BTC) Market Battle Heats Up, Reminiscent of Ethereum (ETH) Struggles

Solana’s [SOL] battle against Bitcoin [BTC] has been a thrilling ride, but experts suggest that the tide may be turning. As Solana faces increasing

As Solana’s (CRYPTO: SOL) battle against Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) continues, several key metrics are hinting at a potential bear market for SOL/BTC, a trend that could be reminiscent of Ethereum’s (CRYPTO: ETH) own struggles in its battle with Bitcoin.

Solana's price has been on a roller coaster ride in recent months, largely influenced by the broader market conditions and shifting investor sentiment toward both BTC and SOL.

According to TradingView data, the SOL/BTC pair has shown a clear downtrend since mid-January 2025, with the pair dropping from its high of 0.0024 BTC to its press time level around 0.0020 BTC, signaling a weakening demand for SOL relative to BTC.

This price decline is further supported by a close examination of the technical indicators. At the time of writing, the Money Flow Index (MFI) is showing a recent uptick, alluding to a possible short-term recovery as buyers are cautiously re-entering the market, which could provide some support for SOL/BTC.

However, a deeper analysis of the data reveals a crucial relationship between the SOL/BTC pair's price and its Sharpe Ratio. Historically, peaks in the Sharpe Ratio tend to align with periods of strong price surges, such as those observed in mid-2021 and mid-2023.

On the other hand, sharp declines in this ratio often signal heightened volatility and risk, which coincides with periods of price downturns.

At the time of writing, the data shows that the Sharpe Ratio is hovering in neutral to negative territory, reflecting diminished risk-adjusted performance for SOL relative to BTC, which seems to be in line with the recent price weakness.

This pattern suggests that investors may be hesitant to allocate heavily to SOL during uncertain periods, and sustained outperformance against BTC might be unlikely in the short term unless there is a notable improvement in risk-reward dynamics.

A Normalized Risk Metric (NRM) also offers a unique perspective on the market trends. The NRM oscillates within a gradient band, with higher values in red indicating elevated risk and lower values in blue signaling reduced risk levels.

Historically, price peaks coincide with elevated NRM levels, such as those seen in mid-2021, which indicate overbought conditions and heightened market euphoria.

Conversely, dips into the lower bands, such as those seen in early 2023, often signal accumulation phases, indicating reduced market risk.

When comparing SOL/BTC to ETH/BTC, there are distinct divergences in their market behavior. While ETH/BTC generally mirrors broader market sentiment and serves as a bellwether for altcoin performance, SOL/BTC highlights higher volatility, reflecting Solana's status as a high-beta asset.