10 predictions ahead of the Chiefs vs. Eagles Super Bowl in 2025 ranging from the final score, Super Bowl MVP, longest reception, and more.  These are simply the projections that I am personally playing.

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Here are 10 bold predictions for Super Bowl LIX between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles on Feb. 12, 2025, ranging from the final score, Super Bowl MVP, longest reception, and more.

These are simply the projections that I am personally playing. I am not a professional, and I do not have any special insight into the game. Please gamble responsibly.

1. Jalen Hurts higher 213.5 pass yards

The flaws in Jalen Hurts' game have gone viral throughout January's media coverage of the team because he had two undeniably bad dropback games. But on the whole, Hurts is a productive passer and a real asset as a runner. That's even more true when he's playing indoors or when the game script puts him in situations where he has to dropback more than normal.

Here are his splits in 16 career games in domes or retractable roof stadiums like the one in New Orleans for the Super Bowl:

Hurts also has splits with A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Lane Johnson, and Dallas Goedert all healthy, too, which makes sense because those are star players. Well, they are all ready to go.

On Underdog Fantasy, we can change the passing yard projection to increase or decrease the multiplier. This is one where I'll be dragging the projection up to 249.5 yards or even higher depending on the entry. He's paired nicely with the following projections:

2. Saquon Barkley lower 22.5 carries

The Chiefs allowed the 8th fewest carries in the regular season, while limiting the opposition to a league-low 9.7 drives per game. Like mentioned earlier, I anticipate the Chiefs to squat on the ball with underneath targets, and that has ripple effects for the Eagles.

Beyond that, this game is expected to be close (1.5 spread) rather than their average of a 10-point win. If we only look at one-score games this year with Jalen Hurts at the helm, then Saquon Barkley has 22.5 carries per game despite them being victorious in 8-of-9 of them.

3. DeVonta Smith higher 50.5 receiving yards

In 11 games with Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith has averaged 4.5 receptions, 52 receiving yards, 0.42 touchdowns, and 5.5 targets, so we're right in line with the projection if things go as normal. But I don't think this will be the same game script Smith has played in for most of this year.

The Eagles may have to pass more now that they are expected to be in a close game. Smith's averages in games within 14 points are 5.8 catches for 68 yards, compared to just 3.8 catches for 54 yards in the 4 Eagles wins by more than 14 points.

Among the pass catchers, I like Smith's matchup the best. He'll largely avoid Chiefs CB1 Trent McDuffie because Smith plays 53% of his snaps in the slot. That's where Chamarri Conner plays, and he's allowed the most yards per coverage snap among their starters in the secondary. Conner is a physical player with the opposite frame as Smith, who is just faster and longer than Conner is.

4. Xavier Worthy lower 21.5 longest reception

He’s improved every month and is now playing on 81% of Chiefs' dropbacks, while playing outside receiver on more than half of his snaps. But Xavier Worthy and Patrick Mahomes are still establishing chemistry, particularly against zone. Over his last 6 games when he’s become a near full-time player, Worthy's yards per route drops to 1.5 against zone coverages on a crazy-low 2.4 average depth of target. In the postseason, he's only had a 14% target rate against zone, even with him being the Chiefs’ primary screen player (11-of-19 screens). Assuming Eagles DC Vic Fangio calls a zone-based defense without blitzing, this will be a big “Rally and Tackle” outing for the defense against a lot of underneath looks. On throws under 10 air yards, the Eagles are 1st in EPA allowed (-0.02) and success rate (47%) ... Not to mention, Worthy only has 5 receptions of 22+ yards this season.

5. JuJu Smith-Schuster higher 1.5 receptions

Over his last 6 games, the veteran slot receiver has a 12% target share on zone snaps. Not impressive, but it is higher than his man-coverage splits, which is a good thing for this likely